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The National Assembly Futures Institute publishes reports that predict and analyze the changes in the future environment based on a comprehensive perspective, and derive mid- to long-term national development strategies in consideration of the preferences of the citizens
[20-12] the future of China

Date : 2020-12-31 item : [20-12] Research Report P.I : You Chae-kwang

This  research  examines  the  future  of  China,  which  would  play  a pivotal role  in  determining  the  future  of  South  Korea.  Focusing  on  the chance  of regime  survival,  the  prospect  of  sustainable  economic  growth  and  the chance  of  conflict  and  cooperation  with  foreign  countries,  it  aims  at offering  a  comprehensive  image  of  China  around  2030.  China’s  future  will not be completely different from the present image of contemporary China, According to the research, China will remain highly authoritarian  with  a little  prospect  of  democratization  while  sustaining  its  economic  growth although the growth rate declines. But China’s foreign relations with major countries  such  as  the  US,  Japan,  India  and  Australia  will  deteriorate  as  a result  of  heightened  security  competition  elsewhere.  The  research  provides a  set  of  future  strategies  to  a  policy  community  in  South  Korea such as decreasing  levels  of  trade  dependence  on  China,  considering  the return to a  quasi  alliance  system  between  the  US,  South  Korea,  and  Japan, and rebuilding  communication  channels  with  China’s  top  leadership.


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