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[Futures Brief] Assessment of Future Impact of Science and Technology: European Parliament 2021 Report “Our Response to Unprecedented Issues” (No. 5)
Dr. Park Seong-won (Research Fellow) has confirmed that the economic and social impact was concentrated on the socially disadvantaged and vulnerable groups such as women, youth, and low-skilled workers during the two years after the COVID-19 crisis worldwide. The brief is based on a report containing a parliamentary evaluation for science and technology to respond to COVID-19 by the European Parliament Technology Assessment Network (EPTA). NAFI participates in the EPTA as an associate member. For rapidly addressing social and economic impacts of COVID-19 on the vulnerable groups, parliaments of each country have urged scientific and technological efforts such as provision of COVID-19 response information using advanced IT and the development of vaccines and therapeutics, and also jointly made efforts to respond to the crisis by establishing committees and social channels in which the government, experts, and citizens participate together. In 2021 report, EPTA evaluated that they were impressed by Korea’s efforts to track confirmed cases using advanced IT, to share data such as medical resources, and to gather experts and citizens for discussion on future prospects and countermeasures via the National Assembly.
[National Future Strategic Insight] “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” (No. 36)
This report points out that Korea has displayed unprecedented rapid economic growth, but on the other hand, individuals and societies suffer from inequality, polarization, antagonism and confrontation, thereby envisioning “Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society”, emphasizing the need for transition to a society where individuals and communities are not sacrificed for the national development goal but design the future together as equal subjects, and value quality rather than quantitative expansion. The researchers present “autonomy and decentralization”, “diversity”, “priority to the socially vulnerable” as values we have to direct towards, with 12 specific mid- to long-term agendas under four goals “individual capacity and quality of life”, “harmonized community”, “paradigm shift and sustainable growth” and “mediation and cooperation against domestic/international conflicts”. The report is intended to focus on mid- to long-term agendas that three governments should continue to push forward, considering that a new government will be launched in 2022. By analyzing the issues of consensus, potential conflict, and fierce confrontation by each agenda from various perspectives, the report presents a topic for expanding social conversation in the future. This report has been prepared to display the key points of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” of the National Mid-to-Long-Term Agenda Committee (“Committee”), which is an advisory body under the Speaker of the National Assembly established at the end of November 2020 to discover national tasks and future issues required to be continuously discussed beyond the five-year term of the administration. Future Vision 2037 Report is the outcome of Committee-supported research conducted over the past year by forming a joint research team led by NAFI, other government-funded research institutes under the jurisdiction of the National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences (NRC) and the National Research Council of Science & Technology (NST), and 60 experts from major universities. “As this report contains national agendas requiring continuous discussion beyond the five-year term of the administration, we plan to use various tools to promote the research results so that the politicians and the public can continue to take interest,” explains Research Fellow Kim Yu-bean of NAFI.
[National Future Strategic Insight] Policies to Support Industries Affected by Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Policy Effect Analysis (No. 35)
Performing a survey for 25 experts by Jeong Hoon (Research Fellow) and Yeo Yeong-jun (Associate Research Fellow), respondents answered that “pro forma opinion gathering” and “hasty and exclusive legislative process” are the biggest obstacles of domestic climate policy and legislation. They confirmed that by enhancing policies and legislation, the regulatory restructuring, promotion of domestic industry conversion and export industry support should be integrated. Further, the CBAM-oriented supports should encompass support, protection, promotion and conversion as strategic directions, including tax benefits, funding support, R&D support, distribution/commercialization, infrastructure, customized support for each industry, reasonable transaction framework, innovative system, policy governance, education and publicity. The priority of the proposed industrial support policy tasks was analyzed based on urgency and effectiveness with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which was given to R&D support, tax benefits, funding support, customized support for each industry, innovative system, distribution/commercialization, infrastructure, policy governance, reasonable transaction framework, and education and publicity in this order. Additionally, the researchers proved the importance and effectiveness of the industrial support policy by analyzing the socioeconomic ripple effect using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for “R&D support” with the highest priority, and also confirmed that major macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, social utility, and investment, which had fallen due to the CBAM, recovered somewhat with R&D support, thereby resolving the growth slowdown, as well as indirect effect of promoting carbon neutrality of the power generation sector. “As it was quantitatively confirmed that the implementation of the industrial support policy had positive economic and social effects, we could confirm the need of preparing a systematic industrial support policy for carbon neutrality as well as responding to the CBAM,” explains Dr. Jeong Hoon. “In the policy design, it is necessary to come up with an integrated support plan and improve the system thereby ensuring introduction of regulations that meet the needs of the international community and customized protection and support policies taking into account the structural characteristics of the domestic industry.”
(22-12 Research Report) The Future of the World Order in 2050 : Probable vs. Preferred
The end of the Cold War in 1990s brought about the era of US-led liberal international order with its robust economic integration and globalization. However, the great power politics and geopolitical tensions have been revived and intensified three decades after the Cold War. In the environment of intensifying the great power competition between the US and China, the war in Ukraine has dramatically undermined the post-Cold War order which was already being derailed away from the globalizing and liberal political economic trends. The rise of geopolitical tension and dramatic decline of globalization have brought about various discussions on where the post-Cold War era order is heading. The US national security strategy of 2022 declared that the post-Cold War era is definitively over. Then what will be next the international order in the post-post-Cold War era? The Center for International Strategies of NAFI (National Assembly Futures Institute of ROK) has been studying the various issues of international affairs in collaboration with global scholars. The theme of this 2022 global collaborative research is ‘The Future of the World Order in 2050: Probable vs. Preferred*.’ With intensifying great power rivalry and war in Ukraine, the gap between the probable future and the preferred future seems to be getting bigger. Therefore, this global collaborative research discussing and forecasting what is the most likely and what is the most preferable future for the coming international order is very important and a timely issue while we are facing with the numerous changes in the international power structure and global system. We invited 13 scholars from different countries and regions to share and discuss their views on the future of world and region. The 12 countries and regions selected are South Korea, US, China, Japan, India, Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. The main issues which the authors of this research address are the three following; the future of US and China competition, the future of power structure (bipolar vs. multipolar) and the future of their own states and regions. The final task all the authors describe is to offer suggestions for making the future international order more preferable. With these four questions, each author presents their views and strategies on probable future and preferred future. The 13 scholars from 12 countries presents their own views on the issues. This research compiles their views and presents some key takeaways from their views. The art of prediction is usually deeply linked to accuracy, but the predictions of this research do not focus on accuracy but on understanding the diverse views on the probable and preferred future of international order they perceive. Based on the mutual and comprehensive understandings on their different views, we want to take some important suggestions for a better future and suggest some solutions to enhance global cooperation for building a better future. This study includes the diverse ambitions and preferences which global states have. We believe that the future will be shaped by a confluence of different forces. The most important point is that we need to figure out how to resolve conflict and make cooperation possible even when we have different views and ways to imagine the future of international order. Even though this report’s title references the future of the international order, this report does not aim to predict the future accurately, but instead shares the diverse views of possible futures and preferred futures and provides some meaningful implications for the studies and policies regarding the future of the international order. The pieces which the 13 scholars from different countries around the world contributed for this research reflect their personal perspectives on the future of world order. This report can be regarded as an academic discussion of global scholars on the probable and preferred futures of the world order and the regions in order to share diverse views and navigate the major cognitive trends on that what is the most likely future and what is the most preferable future. We hope this study provides a good starting point to have open and constructive discussions on how to narrow the gap between the probable future and the preferred future for all. * This report does not reflect the views of any governments and organizations which the authors belong to. All of content included here are personal opinions. Indeed, the 14 authors of this report do not totally agree on each state’s and region’s perspectives on the future of world order described in this report. This report’s intention is to show the diverse and different attitudes and perspectives on the changes of the current international order between the scholars from all over the world and to understand the complicated picture of future world order each scholar has and to navigate the most preferable future of international order from the diverse discussions. By sharing the diverse views on the probable and preferred future of international order and discussing the way to cooperate for building the preferable future, we hope we can make the future world head in a more preferable direction.
(22-01 Research Report) A Forecasting Research on the Futures of Korea 2050
The Future of Korea is a research initiative undertaken by the National Assembly Futures Institute, which aims to forecast the future of 2050, identify the goals that our society needs to achieve, and present various pathways to reach them. In 2021, the National Assembly Futures Institute proposed a national vision of “Going beyond a growth society to a mature society.” This vision defines a mature society as one that avoids state-led growth in favor of individual-led growth, moves beyond centralized governance to strengthen autonomous governance of local communities, and prioritizes the needs of socially underprivileged and marginalized groups above all else. To forecast the future in collaboration with the public and identify ways to realize this vision of a mature society, the National Assembly Futures Institute forecasts the future in six areas: social relations, residential environment, education, economy, politics, and international relations. The Institute develops mid- to long-term strategies and policies for each field and presents common tasks that combine top-priority policies and fields. During this process, 52 internal and external experts analyzed trends to date, forecasted the long-term future through forecast modeling, and participated in discussions to present strategies and policies necessary for our society based on the forecast results. The following are the preferred futures presented for each of the six areas: “A society of free and non-isolated individuals” in the field of social relations, “A safe and healthy life wherever you live” in the residential environment, “Expanding opportunities to rise up the social ladder anywhere” in the field of education, “A harmony between people, mother nature, and technology” in the field of economy, “Decentralized governance for the coexistence and development of diverse communities” in the field of politics, and “Smart Power Korea based on competence and trust” and “Coexistence mutually recognized by the two Koreas” in the field of international relations. While this future may be considered utopian compared to the present reality, the effort to move step by step toward this goal is crucial. By sharing and spreading the idea of incremental progress, the future gradually becomes a tangible reality. It is hoped that the results of this study will contribute to presenting a small but practical hope to our society.
(22-02 Research Report) Operation of the National Mid- to Long-term Agenda Committee and Strategy for Future Agenda Institutionalization
In the year 2021, the National Assembly established and implemented the National Mid-to-Long-term Agenda Committee, which operates under the direct oversight of the National Assembly Speaker. This represents a significant opportunity for the National Assembly to assume a proactive role in the planning and execution of state affairs, as well as identifying and addressing mid-to-long-term tasks at the national level. One notable outcome of the committee's efforts is the publication of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from a Growing Society to a Mature Society,” which aims to address structural and persistent societal issues in Korea by examining the past, present, and future of the country. The concept of a mature society is posited as a national value, however, it has been noted that there may be limitations in effectively communicating the meaning of such a society due to the diversity of interpretations associated with the term “maturity.” This may further complicate the process of formulating policies aimed at realizing a mature society. This study delves into the concept of a mature society by examining various policies and theories on growth. The study presents various state administration philosophies, such as shared growth, balanced development, and green growth, that were introduced when the new government was launched. Additionally, the study examines the perspectives of prominent political philosophers, such as Rawls, Sen, Nussbaum, Douglas Lummis, Ivan Illich, and Gilbert Liszt, on growth and competence. Based on these perspectives, the study constructs a theoretical foundation for a mature society. This theoretical foundation is then used to conduct a comparative analysis of the policies of major political parties in the presidential election, specifically focusing on the 120 national tasks of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration and how they align with the conception of a mature society. The study also maps the 120 national tasks to the 4 key goals and 12 agendas presented in the Future Vision 2037 report, which are identified as elements of the conception of a mature society: fairness and justice, equality in relationships, rights of nature, growth, and transformation. Through this analysis, the study aims to emphasize the importance of a balanced pursuit of values, competence, individual free will, and the guarantee of social function choice in the realization of a mature society, by highlighting common points and differences. The key agendas that were identified underwent a collaborative examination with esteemed professionals within the relevant domain. While a significant portion of the agendas had a substantial number of institutional deliberation, facilitating the understanding of associated concerns, there were limitations in determining a strategic course of action for specific regulatory frameworks and institutionalization. Further research is deemed necessary to address these areas and supplement the current findings. The agendas of societal progress often entail a plethora of conflicting interests and contentious debates. In order to actualize the aspiration of a fully developed society, it is imperative that politics plays a crucial role in adeptly navigating these conflicts and fostering a consensus toward a shared vision of the future. In this study, we shall delve into the rationale behind why the National Assembly should assume such a responsibility, utilizing various political theories as a lens of analysis. Furthermore, we propose the creation of a 'Future Governance Select Committee' which aims to bring the aforementioned vision to fruition. Through this committee, the National Assembly will be able to formulate and implement long-term strategic plans and policies at a national level, representing a departure from its traditional role.
NAFI Holds 7th National Assembly Futures Forum, “Diagnosing Korea’s Readiness for the Future with Data”
NAFI Holds 7th National Assembly Futures Forum, “Diagnosing Korea’s Readiness for the Future with Data” -A joint event by National Assembly study groups (National Assembly Digital Innovation and Future Forum, National Assembly Future Policy Research Group)- The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI, President Kim Hyeon-kon) has joined forces with National Assembly study groups (National Assembly Digital Innovation and Future Forum, National Assembly Future Policy Research Group) to hold the 7th National Assembly Futures Forum on Diagnosing Korea’s Readiness for the Future with Data at the National Assembly Members’ Office Building on November 24th. This forum is designed to ascertain whether we are fully prepared for uncertainties that face the nation going forward, including population reduction and low growth, the proliferation of technologies leading the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and heightened inequalities in the wake of COVID-19. Importantly, participants will recognize the need for a system to monitor our future readiness and executive faculty while seeking a data-based national strategy to respond to the future amid accelerating digital transformation. The forum will begin with opening remarks by NAFI President Kim Hyeon-kon, followed by congratulatory remarks by National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo and Lawmakers Yoon Young-chan, Park Dae-soo, Noh Woong-rae, Sung Il-jong, and Park Jin, who are jointly representing the study groups. After the opening ceremony, Min Bo-gyeong, Head of the Quality of Life Group at the National Assembly Futures Institute, will give a presentation on “Are we well prepared for the environmental changes going forward: Assessment of future readiness based on data.” This will lead to a discussion with Professor Kim Dong-wook of Seoul National University Graduate School of Public Administration (moderator); Professor Bae Kwang-bin of Public Administration at Dongguk University; Yoon Joo-cheol, Tax Analyst at the National Assembly Budget Office; Lim Seong-geun, Future Administrative Innovation Research Director at the Korea Institute of Public Administration; Jeong Joon-hwa, Legislative Investigator at the National Assembly Legislative Research Office; and Choi Byung-sam, Research Fellow at the Science and Technology Research Institute. The National Assembly Futures Forum is a venue where those making up the National Assembly, including lawmakers, political parties, and institutions under the National Assembly, along with professionals from various sectors, discuss significant future issues to seek better alternatives together. NAFI President Kim Hyeon-kon stressed: “The 7th National Assembly Futures Forum will provide a meaningful platform for promoting cooperation among the institutions belonging to the National Assembly as well as academic professionals while exploring data-based research and analysis so that we can use data to find a path to becoming future-ready amid the digital transformation.” The 7th National Assembly Futures Forum will be broadcast live on YouTube while being filmed by the National Assembly Television for a recorded relay later.
NAFI Concludes 6th National Assembly Futures Forum: the Future of Youth, Youth of the Future
NAFI Concludes 6th National Assembly Futures Forum: the Future of Youth, Youth of the Future -Seeking alternative youth policies for the future- The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI, President Kim Hyeon-kon) wrapped up the 6th National Assembly Futures Forum: the Future of Youth, Youth of the Future on September 29. The event was organized jointly with National Assembly study groups (National Assembly 2040 Youth Café, National Integration Forum) and the National Youth Policy Institute (NYPI). NAFI President Kim Hyeon-kon kicked off the forum with his opening remarks. He was followed by congratulatory remarks by National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo, Co-representative Yoo Jung-ju of the National Assembly 2040 Youth Café, National Integration Forum Delegate Jeong Woon-chun, Spokesperson of the Democratic Party Oh Young-hwan, Democratic Party Supreme Council member Jang Kyung-tae, and National Assembly Secretary General Lee Kwang-jae. Youth Policy Network Head Lee Ju-hyung gave a presentation on the Present and Future of Youth Policies, followed by a presentation by NAFI’s Youth Future Committee members on Voice of Young Generation on Housing, Jobs, and Political Participation for Young People. The subsequent discussion on urgent issues facing the young generation was chaired by NYPI President Kim Hyuncheol and attended by Basic Income Party Spokesperson Shin Ji-hye; Minsnail Union activist Ga Won; BigWave (Korean Youth Climate Change Network) Head Kim Min; Youth Policy Coordination Director General Song Gyeong-won at the Office of Government Policy Coordination; NAFI Associate Research Fellow Lee Sang-jic; and Youth Policy Hub Center Director Chun Young-min at the Korea Employment Information Service. National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo said: “The prospects for the nation turn gloomy when young people abandon their dreams. Young people must have a say in governance to ensure a better life for themselves.” Lawmaker Yoo Jung-ju noted, “I hope this forum will initiate a process for looking into young people’s lives and discussing realistic alternatives to existing youth policies.” “We can help people make a difference and eventually reshape the entire landscape when the voice of every last young person is reflected,” stressed Lawmaker Jeong Woon-chun. Lawmaker Oh Young-hwan said, “I will pay careful attention to the youth-related issues discussed during the forum and seek their solutions.” “Young people are not bystanders; rather they are protagonists who need to participate in politics. I will work hard to make the Republic of Korea and our future society more sustainable,” said Lawmaker Jang Kyung-tae. This forum focused more on the essence of youth issues to identify and address significant and urgent issues directly related to the lives of young people. NAFI President Kim noted, “The young generation should lead the society of the future. Based on what we have found in the 6th National Assembly Futures Forum, we will seek ways to establish a better future and better alternatives to youth policies.” National Assembly Futures Forum is a venue where those making up the National Assembly, including lawmakers, political parties, and institutions under the National Assembly, along with professionals from various sectors, discuss significant future issues to seek better alternatives together. Previous forums are available on the NAFI YouTube channel and the National Assembly Television (NATV).
NAFI Holds Launching Ceremony for Youth Future Committee
NAFI Holds Launching Ceremony for Youth Future Committee -Plans laid for involving the young generation in future research- The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI, President Kim Hyeon-kon) launched the 2022 Youth Future Committee in a ceremony held in the National Assembly Members’ Office Building on the 28th. The ceremony began with a brief description of NAFI, followed by a welcome speech, letters of appointment presentation, and sharing of future visions. The Youth Future Committee is designed to involve members of the young generation in future research by NAFI and reinterpret the research findings from their point of view. The committee’s predecessor is Future Creator in 2021. The committee consists of nine members. Their activities are to: (1) plan, supervise, give presentation on, and discuss the academic events led by the committee; (2) promote join research by institutions (to present opinions and answer as interviewees from the perspective of youth on future issues, etc.); (3) participate in international organization meetings (talks about future with overseas youth); and (4) disseminate institutional research findings while producing promotional contents. NAFI President Kim Hyeon-kon said: “The committee will be a venue for members to engage in various activities on significant future-related issues, collecting and reflecting the thoughts of young people.”
5th National Assembly Futures Forum Successfully Held by the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI)
5th National Assembly Futures Forum Successfully Held by the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) -It Suggested a Blueprint for Circular Economy and Future Industry- Kim Hyeon-kon, President of the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) announced that the 5th National Assembly Futures Forum, which was co-hosted by Lee Hack-young Member’s Office, Park Dae-chul Member’s Office and the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Korea, was successfully held on the subject of “Circular Economy and Future Industry” on June 9. President Kim and Eva Witteman, Deputy Ambassador of the Netherlands to South Korea, each gave the opening address, followed by congratulatory remarks from Lee Hack-young, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea and Park Dae-chul, a member of the People Power Party. Then Sung Il-jong, a member of the People Power Party and Yangyi Won-young, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, each gave a keynote address. The presentations were on the subject of “2050 Circular Economy Transition Scenario and Industrial Policy”. Arnoud Passenier, Strategic International Advisor at International Department of Netherlands' Ministry of Infrastructure and Water, gave a presentation on the topic of “Circular Economy Policy in the Netherlands”, Kim Eun-ah, an Associate Research Fellow of NAFI, gave a presentation on the “Circular Korea 2050-a Transition Scenario”, Esther Zondervan, Senior Project Manager at TNO, gave a presentation on “TNO Circular Plastics”, and Jang Yong-chul, a professor at the Department of Environmental Engineering of Chungnam National University, gave a presentation on the topic of ”Strategy and Technology Development of Plastic Circularity towards Circular Economy in Korea”. Panelists for the discussion on the subject of the “Business Cases and Future Strategies of Korea and the Netherlands” included Lee Jong-hyuk, Vice President of SK Geo Centric, Nam Jung-il, director of Korea Iron & Steel Organization, Jung Eun-ji, CEO of DSM Nutrition Korea, Kim Jun-hyeong, CSR Specialist of Heineken Korea, and Kang Yong-nam, President of Signify Korea. Lee Hack-young, a member of National Assembly, said that he hopes “NAFI will further develop and study circular economy, and continue to do so until policy can be legislated”, and Sung Il-jong, a member of National Assembly, said that “the National Assembly must refer to cases of advanced countries practicing circular economy and discuss relevant legal and institutional strategies.” Yangyi Won-young, a member of National Assembly, said that he hopes “Korea will become a society where index targets for the circular economy are set”. And Kim Eun-ah, an Associate Research Fellow of NAFI, proposed a mid-to-long-term strategy founded upon the current lack of new growth engine and of strategy for circular economy and resource security. This forum discussed green transition strategy and mid-to-long-term development plans that can create a new growth engine, while wisely utilize the limited resources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the era of the Great Transition. President Kim Hyeon-kon stressed that “the 5th National Assembly Futures Forum will allow us to share mid-to-long-term vision and the goals of the green transition of circular economy, and to discuss innovative promotion strategy for industrial transition, which will contribute to establishing policy directions in the future.” National Assembly Futures Forum is a forum for discussion on major future issues, where members of National Assembly, political parties, organizations under the National Assembly and panel of experts can exchange opinions and alternatives with each other. The forum is available to watch on the NAFI YouTube channel.
NAFI and National Assembly Library Conclude Business Agreement
NAFI and National Assembly Library Conclude Business Agreement -To establish a national strategic information platform and promote cooperation to strengthen National Assembly’s policymaking - The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI, President Kim Hyeon-kon) signed a business agreement with the National Assembly Library (NAL, Chief Librarian Lee Myung Woo) at the reception room in the main building of the National Assembly on Monday, May 23. This agreement intends to build a national strategic information platform in the National Assembly Library, where the two organizations cooperate to systemically provide strategic information necessary for national policymaking and future strategy establishment. Importantly, it stresses cooperation mainly on the installation and operation of the national strategic information platform within the library; mutual use and promotion of physical and online information held in the two organizations; joint seminar hosting; and other activities. National Assembly Speaker Park Byeong-seug delivered his congratulations at the ceremony: “It is an honor to have this achievement during my term of office during which the National Assembly leads a proposal for a mid-/long-term national agenda, which a single-term five-year government cannot fulfill. Better results will be achieved when two organizations under the National Assembly work seamlessly together on the goal of discovering mid-/long-term national agendas that present a blueprint for the future of the country. I ask them to help the National Assembly to become not a responder but a pioneer and open up the future of the Republic of Korea.” NAFI President Kim noted: “NAFI has strengths in researching national future strategies while the NAL has advantages in identifying national and international legislative trends and constructing databases. Our collaboration will create great synergy and get better results in building a national strategic information platform.” NAFI expects that a national strategic information platform will be useful not only for collecting and analyzing data but also for exploring the results and gaining perspective. The institute also predicts that the National Assembly will identify the mid-/long-term direction and standards of the country at the turning point of transforming into an advanced country and provide society members with a forum to share the direction and standards.