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national future strategies

Future Research

[International Strategic Foresight] Mid- to Long-term Future Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: Unified Governance on the Korean Peninsula (No. 13)

The mid- to long-term future of peace and shared prosperity on the Korean Peninsula fundamentally depends on the question of whether it is possible to establish a new unit for a unified Korean Peninsula that transcends the multilayered rifts and division between the two Koreas. The report defined “collective governance,” which facilitates sustainable peacebuilding on a unified Korean Peninsula, as a concept that embraces the realization of collective institutionalization, as well as the civil society as a “community of people.” The report proposed a differentiated methodology for integration that emerged from the long-term and gradual integration process of the European Union while presenting the collective governance of the Korean Peninsula as a mid- to long-term future strategy.

2022.12.19

Future Research

[National Future Strategic Insight] Improvement Directions of University Education for Enhancing Innovative Capabilities of Talented People: Learning Support and the Development of Diagnostic Indicato

Changes in university education are required to strengthen innovation capabilities for the sustainable development of the nation economy through innovation in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Also, policy discussions and support for effective learning support are needed to enhance the innovative capabilities of university students who are in the stage of preparing for entry into the labor market. However, there are relatively less policy discussions on changes in teaching method in specific educational settings compared to discussions on changing the content and curriculum of university education. The study aims to explore directions and strategies for enhancing the effectiveness of learning support in relation to the changing direction of university education to strengthen the innovation capabilities of talented people. Thus, it presented the “diagnostic indicator for learning support to enhance innovative capabilities of university students” developed based on learning paradigms, learning types, and learning support strategies that should be emphasized in the new environment, as well as implications and ways of utilization.

2022.12.12

Future Research

[Futures Brief] The Rise of Emerging Citizens and the Social Landscape: Future Dialogues with Citizens from Six Regions (No.9)

In this study, emerging citizens who experience deepening social problems such as climate crisis, South-North conflict, unbalanced development, residential insecurity, family dissolution, technological disparity, and environmental destruction were discovered, and we engaged in future dialogues with them. Emerging citizens pointed out several social issues, including government policies that drive citizens away if they fail to quickly achieve their dreams, policies that invest in external appearances and neglect accumulation of cultural assets, ongoing conflict between economic growth and environmental preservation and the lack of solutions, a culture that discriminates against minorities and vulnerable groups when society feels insecure, the dissolution of families and communities along with the weakening of social care, and a government that destroys the future generations and the future environment, and stressed that the government should address these problems to ensure that more citizens do not experience feelings of insecurity and discouragement.

2022.12.05

Future Research

(22-12 Research Report) The Future of the World Order in 2050 : Probable vs. Preferred

2022.12.31

Future Research

(22-01 Research Report) A Forecasting Research on the Futures of Korea 2050

The Future of Korea is a research initiative undertaken by the National Assembly Futures Institute, which aims to forecast the future of 2050, identify the goals that our society needs to achieve, and present various pathways to reach them. In 2021, the National Assembly Futures Institute proposed a national vision of “Going beyond a growth society to a mature society.” This vision defines a mature society as one that avoids state-led growth in favor of individual-led growth, moves beyond centralized governance to strengthen autonomous governance of local communities, and prioritizes the needs of socially underprivileged and marginalized groups above all else. To forecast the future in collaboration with the public and identify ways to realize this vision of a mature society, the National Assembly Futures Institute forecasts the future in six areas: social relations, residential environment, education, economy, politics, and international relations. The Institute develops mid- to long-term strategies and policies for each field and presents common tasks that combine top-priority policies and fields. During this process, 52 internal and external experts analyzed trends to date, forecasted the long-term future through forecast modeling, and participated in discussions to present strategies and policies necessary for our society based on the forecast results. The following are the preferred futures presented for each of the six areas: “A society of free and non-isolated individuals” in the field of social relations, “A safe and healthy life wherever you live” in the residential environment, “Expanding opportunities to rise up the social ladder anywhere” in the field of education, “A harmony between people, mother nature, and technology” in the field of economy, “Decentralized governance for the coexistence and development of diverse communities” in the field of politics, and “Smart Power Korea based on competence and trust” and “Coexistence mutually recognized by the two Koreas” in the field of international relations. While this future may be considered utopian compared to the present reality, the effort to move step by step toward this goal is crucial. By sharing and spreading the idea of incremental progress, the future gradually becomes a tangible reality. It is hoped that the results of this study will contribute to presenting a small but practical hope to our society.

2022.12.31

Future Research

(22-02 Research Report) Operation of the National Mid- to Long-term Agenda Committee and Strategy for Future Agenda Institutionalization

In the year 2021, the National Assembly established and implemented the National Mid-to-Long-term Agenda Committee, which operates under the direct oversight of the National Assembly Speaker. This represents a significant opportunity for the National Assembly to assume a proactive role in the planning and execution of state affairs, as well as identifying and addressing mid-to-long-term tasks at the national level. One notable outcome of the committee's efforts is the publication of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from a Growing Society to a Mature Society,” which aims to address structural and persistent societal issues in Korea by examining the past, present, and future of the country. The concept of a mature society is posited as a national value, however, it has been noted that there may be limitations in effectively communicating the meaning of such a society due to the diversity of interpretations associated with the term “maturity.” This may further complicate the process of formulating policies aimed at realizing a mature society. This study delves into the concept of a mature society by examining various policies and theories on growth. The study presents various state administration philosophies, such as shared growth, balanced development, and green growth, that were introduced when the new government was launched. Additionally, the study examines the perspectives of prominent political philosophers, such as Rawls, Sen, Nussbaum, Douglas Lummis, Ivan Illich, and Gilbert Liszt, on growth and competence. Based on these perspectives, the study constructs a theoretical foundation for a mature society. This theoretical foundation is then used to conduct a comparative analysis of the policies of major political parties in the presidential election, specifically focusing on the 120 national tasks of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration and how they align with the conception of a mature society. The study also maps the 120 national tasks to the 4 key goals and 12 agendas presented in the Future Vision 2037 report, which are identified as elements of the conception of a mature society: fairness and justice, equality in relationships, rights of nature, growth, and transformation. Through this analysis, the study aims to emphasize the importance of a balanced pursuit of values, competence, individual free will, and the guarantee of social function choice in the realization of a mature society, by highlighting common points and differences. The key agendas that were identified underwent a collaborative examination with esteemed professionals within the relevant domain. While a significant portion of the agendas had a substantial number of institutional deliberation, facilitating the understanding of associated concerns, there were limitations in determining a strategic course of action for specific regulatory frameworks and institutionalization. Further research is deemed necessary to address these areas and supplement the current findings. The agendas of societal progress often entail a plethora of conflicting interests and contentious debates. In order to actualize the aspiration of a fully developed society, it is imperative that politics plays a crucial role in adeptly navigating these conflicts and fostering a consensus toward a shared vision of the future. In this study, we shall delve into the rationale behind why the National Assembly should assume such a responsibility, utilizing various political theories as a lens of analysis. Furthermore, we propose the creation of a 'Future Governance Select Committee' which aims to bring the aforementioned vision to fruition. Through this committee, the National Assembly will be able to formulate and implement long-term strategic plans and policies at a national level, representing a departure from its traditional role.

2022.12.31

Future Research

2019 Annual Report

2020.05.29

Future Research

2020 Annual Report

2022.07.31

Future Research

2021 Annual Report

2022.07.31

News Release

NAFI Holds 7th National Assembly Futures Forum, “Diagnosing Korea’s Readiness for the Future with Data”

2022.11.23

News Release

NAFI Concludes 6th National Assembly Futures Forum: the Future of Youth, Youth of the Future

NAFI Concludes 6th National Assembly Futures Forum: the Future of Youth, Youth of the Future -Seeking alternative youth policies for the future- The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI, President Kim Hyeon-kon) wrapped up the 6th National Assembly Futures Forum: the Future of Youth, Youth of the Future on September 29. The event was organized jointly with National Assembly study groups (National Assembly 2040 Youth Café, National Integration Forum) and the National Youth Policy Institute (NYPI). NAFI President Kim Hyeon-kon kicked off the forum with his opening remarks. He was followed by congratulatory remarks by National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo, Co-representative Yoo Jung-ju of the National Assembly 2040 Youth Café, National Integration Forum Delegate Jeong Woon-chun, Spokesperson of the Democratic Party Oh Young-hwan, Democratic Party Supreme Council member Jang Kyung-tae, and National Assembly Secretary General Lee Kwang-jae. Youth Policy Network Head Lee Ju-hyung gave a presentation on the Present and Future of Youth Policies, followed by a presentation by NAFI’s Youth Future Committee members on Voice of Young Generation on Housing, Jobs, and Political Participation for Young People. The subsequent discussion on urgent issues facing the young generation was chaired by NYPI President Kim Hyuncheol and attended by Basic Income Party Spokesperson Shin Ji-hye; Minsnail Union activist Ga Won; BigWave (Korean Youth Climate Change Network) Head Kim Min; Youth Policy Coordination Director General Song Gyeong-won at the Office of Government Policy Coordination; NAFI Associate Research Fellow Lee Sang-jic; and Youth Policy Hub Center Director Chun Young-min at the Korea Employment Information Service. National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo said: “The prospects for the nation turn gloomy when young people abandon their dreams. Young people must have a say in governance to ensure a better life for themselves.” Lawmaker Yoo Jung-ju noted, “I hope this forum will initiate a process for looking into young people’s lives and discussing realistic alternatives to existing youth policies.” “We can help people make a difference and eventually reshape the entire landscape when the voice of every last young person is reflected,” stressed Lawmaker Jeong Woon-chun. Lawmaker Oh Young-hwan said, “I will pay careful attention to the youth-related issues discussed during the forum and seek their solutions.” “Young people are not bystanders; rather they are protagonists who need to participate in politics. I will work hard to make the Republic of Korea and our future society more sustainable,” said Lawmaker Jang Kyung-tae. This forum focused more on the essence of youth issues to identify and address significant and urgent issues directly related to the lives of young people. NAFI President Kim noted, “The young generation should lead the society of the future. Based on what we have found in the 6th National Assembly Futures Forum, we will seek ways to establish a better future and better alternatives to youth policies.” National Assembly Futures Forum is a venue where those making up the National Assembly, including lawmakers, political parties, and institutions under the National Assembly, along with professionals from various sectors, discuss significant future issues to seek better alternatives together. Previous forums are available on the NAFI YouTube channel and the National Assembly Television (NATV).

2022.09.30

News Release

NAFI Holds Launching Ceremony for Youth Future Committee

NAFI Holds Launching Ceremony for Youth Future Committee -Plans laid for involving the young generation in future research- The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI, President Kim Hyeon-kon) launched the 2022 Youth Future Committee in a ceremony held in the National Assembly Members’ Office Building on the 28th. The ceremony began with a brief description of NAFI, followed by a welcome speech, letters of appointment presentation, and sharing of future visions. The Youth Future Committee is designed to involve members of the young generation in future research by NAFI and reinterpret the research findings from their point of view. The committee’s predecessor is Future Creator in 2021. The committee consists of nine members. Their activities are to: (1) plan, supervise, give presentation on, and discuss the academic events led by the committee; (2) promote join research by institutions (to present opinions and answer as interviewees from the perspective of youth on future issues, etc.); (3) participate in international organization meetings (talks about future with overseas youth); and (4) disseminate institutional research findings while producing promotional contents. NAFI President Kim Hyeon-kon said: “The committee will be a venue for members to engage in various activities on significant future-related issues, collecting and reflecting the thoughts of young people.”

2022.06.29

News Release

5th National Assembly Futures Forum Successfully Held by the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI)

5th National Assembly Futures Forum Successfully Held by the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) -It Suggested a Blueprint for Circular Economy and Future Industry- Kim Hyeon-kon, President of the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) announced that the 5th National Assembly Futures Forum, which was co-hosted by Lee Hack-young Member’s Office, Park Dae-chul Member’s Office and the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Korea, was successfully held on the subject of “Circular Economy and Future Industry” on June 9. President Kim and Eva Witteman, Deputy Ambassador of the Netherlands to South Korea, each gave the opening address, followed by congratulatory remarks from Lee Hack-young, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea and Park Dae-chul, a member of the People Power Party. Then Sung Il-jong, a member of the People Power Party and Yangyi Won-young, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, each gave a keynote address. The presentations were on the subject of “2050 Circular Economy Transition Scenario and Industrial Policy”. Arnoud Passenier, Strategic International Advisor at International Department of Netherlands' Ministry of Infrastructure and Water, gave a presentation on the topic of “Circular Economy Policy in the Netherlands”, Kim Eun-ah, an Associate Research Fellow of NAFI, gave a presentation on the “Circular Korea 2050-a Transition Scenario”, Esther Zondervan, Senior Project Manager at TNO, gave a presentation on “TNO Circular Plastics”, and Jang Yong-chul, a professor at the Department of Environmental Engineering of Chungnam National University, gave a presentation on the topic of ”Strategy and Technology Development of Plastic Circularity towards Circular Economy in Korea”. Panelists for the discussion on the subject of the “Business Cases and Future Strategies of Korea and the Netherlands” included Lee Jong-hyuk, Vice President of SK Geo Centric, Nam Jung-il, director of Korea Iron & Steel Organization, Jung Eun-ji, CEO of DSM Nutrition Korea, Kim Jun-hyeong, CSR Specialist of Heineken Korea, and Kang Yong-nam, President of Signify Korea. Lee Hack-young, a member of National Assembly, said that he hopes “NAFI will further develop and study circular economy, and continue to do so until policy can be legislated”, and Sung Il-jong, a member of National Assembly, said that “the National Assembly must refer to cases of advanced countries practicing circular economy and discuss relevant legal and institutional strategies.” Yangyi Won-young, a member of National Assembly, said that he hopes “Korea will become a society where index targets for the circular economy are set”. And Kim Eun-ah, an Associate Research Fellow of NAFI, proposed a mid-to-long-term strategy founded upon the current lack of new growth engine and of strategy for circular economy and resource security. This forum discussed green transition strategy and mid-to-long-term development plans that can create a new growth engine, while wisely utilize the limited resources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the era of the Great Transition. President Kim Hyeon-kon stressed that “the 5th National Assembly Futures Forum will allow us to share mid-to-long-term vision and the goals of the green transition of circular economy, and to discuss innovative promotion strategy for industrial transition, which will contribute to establishing policy directions in the future.” National Assembly Futures Forum is a forum for discussion on major future issues, where members of National Assembly, political parties, organizations under the National Assembly and panel of experts can exchange opinions and alternatives with each other. The forum is available to watch on the NAFI YouTube channel.

2022.06.10

News Release

NAFI and National Assembly Library Conclude Business Agreement

2022.05.23

Research Report

(22-12 Research Report) The Future of the World Order in 2050 : Probable vs. Preferred

P.I : Cha Jung-mi

2022-12-31

(22-01 Research Report) A Forecasting Research on the Futures of Korea 2050

P.I : Park Seong-won

2022-12-31

(22-02 Research Report) Operation of the National Mid- to Long-term Agenda Committee and Strategy for Future Agenda Institutionalization

P.I : Park Sang-hoon

2022-12-31

(22-03 Research Report) The Development of Learning Support Indicators for Improving Innovation Capabilities

P.I : Sung Moon-ju

The heightened emphasis on innovation, driven by global competitiveness, the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and governmental strategies centered on innovative growth, has elicited a growing interest in the development of diagnostic indicators that can assess the provision of learning support for employees and college students. This study endeavors to create such indicators, with a focus on the critical role of learning in enhancing individual innovation capabilities, and to continuously monitor governmental policies aimed at improving learning support. This study followed a step-by-step approach, proceeding in a cyclical and non-linear manner. Initially, to conceptualize learning that can enhance individuals' innovation capabilities, modes of learning that foster such capabilities were identified through the examination of expert consultation outcomes and a thorough review of relevant literature. This study considers learning that encourages experimentation through trial-and-error methods as being paramount in fostering individuals' innovation capabilities. This study posits that a focus on informal learning, self-directed learning, experiential learning, learning through mistakes, and collaborative learning is crucial in enhancing the innovation capabilities of both employees and college students. Following this, this study conducted a comprehensive review of the literature to identify the key determinants of innovation capability and developed a conceptual framework for learning support. It differentiated the factors affecting learning for innovation into personal characteristics, such as resilience, and environmental elements, such as a culture that embraces learning through failure and experimentation. The researchers utilized a combination of literature review and brainstorming to arrive at a set of learning enablers and disablers that impact the development of innovation capabilities. The objective of this study was to design learning support indicators and a classification system. The indicators were derived from the results of research meetings and a review of prior studies, with the aim of aligning them with statistical data and indicators collected by government agencies, research institutes, and public organizations. The study developed a framework that categorizes indicators into environmental and personal factors, in accordance with the literature review for this study and based on Amabile's (1988) componential model of organizational innovation. The environmental dimension was further divided into system and culture sub-dimensions, while the personal dimension was split into cognitive and non-cognitive competencies. The study synthesized influencing factors from relevant theories, models, and previous studies and utilized it as a guide in creating the learning support components and indicators. The study concluded with the administration of two Delphi surveys. These surveys sought to validate learning support indicators, framework, and learning modes aimed at enhancing innovation capabilities. To this end, 20 experts participated in the validation process. The initial Delphi survey was based on a draft of the learning support indicators, which were designed for both employees and college students. Based on the feedback received from the first survey, the research team made revisions to the learning modes, indicator classification system, and the names and definitions of the indicators. Subsequently, a second Delphi survey was conducted, utilizing the revised learning support indicators. The results of this survey were analyzed and used to finalize the learning modes, learning support indicators, and the classification system. The final version of the indicators comprised a total of 25 indicators, with separate sets for employees and college students.

2022-12-31

(22-04 Research Report) Research on Strategic Tasks for Transition to a Creative Learning Society to Accelerate the Transformation of the Innovation Paradigm

P.I : Yeo Yeong-jun

Korea achieved rapid economic growth by effectively learning and adopting advanced technologies and knowledge. However, the limitations of the catch-up growth model are becoming more apparent as the country aims to transition to an innovative economy. To achieve this goal, it is crucial that individuals across different sectors engage in a variety of learning activities, instead of relying solely on specific industries or companies. Additionally, it is important to expand the positive effects of learning to support the adaptability of the workforce. Despite this need, there are concerns that current innovation policy in Korea does not sufficiently support the development of a culture of self-directed learning and lifelong learning, which is necessary for the reinforcement of adaptability through the design of career plans based on individual self-learning and participation in learning activities throughout the life cycle. With this context in mind, the current study aims to analyze the main institutional limitations and policy issues present within Korea's innovation system, specifically with regards to fostering diverse creative learning and building a learning society. Furthermore, this study aims to propose concrete policy solutions to address these issues and support the transition to a society where creative learning is embraced. To achieve this, the study intends to conduct a comprehensive analysis of policy alternatives and leverage points within various institutions, including Technical and Vocational Education, Workplace-based Learning, Higher Education Institutions, Middle-aged People, Local Communities, and others, from a systemic perspective. Through these efforts, the study aims to identify key policy tasks and long-term visions to support the successful transition of the innovation system, with the ultimate goal of providing guidance for creating a national, forward-looking innovation strategy.

2022-12-31

(22-05 Research Report) Future of the youth, youth in the future

P.I : Lee Sang-jic

This study endeavors to critically analyze the youth problem in Korea by investigating the social conditions that influence their lives and thoughts. Theresearch focuses the interplay between the societal structures that regulatethe lives of young people and the roles and perceptions that the youth hold inthe society in order to gain a comprehensive understanding of the youthexperience in Korea. This study is an attempt to understand the nature of the current situationsurrounding the youth of Korea from a historical and comparative perspective. We tried to identify the social conditions that define the lives oftoday’s youth in Korea, as well as the characteristics of their lives. In other words, we attempted to examine the structure and system that regulate the life of young people on one hand and the roles and perceptions of young people on the other hand. Chapter 1 places the context in which the current situation of young people emerged in the context of the formation and change of the modern life course. Chapter 2 traces how the concept of youth was formed and changed in Korea through the analysis of newspaper articles. Chapter 3 captures the structure of discourse on young people since the 2000s. In Korean society, the concept of youth has changed from a ‘social’ phenomenon to a ‘cultural’ phenomenon, to an ‘economic’ phenomenon. Chapter 4 checks how general changes in the modern life course are revealed in the context of Korea. The characteristics of Korea are also confirmed in a comparative study on the structure of youth employment (chapter 5). Korea is an example of ‘jobless growth’. This transitional context seems to be reflected in the role structure and perception structure of young people. Chapter 6 compares the roles and thoughts of young people in 7 countries during the transition to adulthood. Chapter 7 historically examines the flow of the young population movement. Although the total population movement decreased, the movement of young people from the region to the metropolitan area increased. In Chapters 8 and 9, aspects of subjective perception, such as the perception of inequality and happiness among young people, were reviewed. Chapter 10 reviews policy on young people. Many of the policies focus on employment. The case analysis in Chapter 11 shows that policies need to consider the wider context. The implications of the study indicate that there is a need to critically re-evaluate the way in which Korean society perceives and understands youth. Traditionally, the societal focus on youth has been centered on the notions of ‘preparing young people for employment and marriage’, which is based on the assumptions of those who view these events as natural life experiences. This perspective is instrumental in nature and may not be adequate in light of the current societal changes. The implication of this recognition is that adolescence should no longer be viewed as a transitional stage, an immature stage, but rather as a life stage that is worthy of recognition in its own right. This shift in perspective calls for a move away from the notion of “doing something for young people” and instead, providing them with channels and opportunities for participating, voicing and decision-making.

2022-12-31

(22-06 Research Report) The Welfare System in the Age of Low Growth without Employment and the Advent of a Super-Aged Society

P.I : Lee Chae-jeong

Now is the time to discuss a sustainable welfare system an economy in continued low growth without increased employment that meets the needs of an emerging super-aged society. This study examines how the welfare system is changing through the lens of international comparison, and examines the case of Korea specifically, to derive policy implications for the design of a welfare system that can flexibly respond to an era of low growth without employment and a society that is super-aged. From 1990 until recently, changes in the welfare system have been analyzed using country-specific statistics provided by the OECD. As a result, OECD countries are seeking changes in their methods of financing and distributing social expenditures in response to the deterioration of government fiscal soundness and the increasing demand for social benefits. OECD member countries have shown a tendency to decrease the share of social security contributions from tax sources. The proportion of social expenditures for cash benefits for the elderly has increased, as has the share of in-kind policy support for families. The United Kingdom, France, and Finland were examined to investigate changes in the welfare system by type of welfare state. In the UK, the average share of social security contributions has been maintained at 20–30%, while the share of personal income tax, value added tax, and capital gains tax has increased. Finland’s welfare resources consist of national and local taxes, employment funds, and pension contributions. In France, social security contributions have gradually decreased, and the share of general social contributions has gradually increased. As low growth without employment has continued, the French government has recognized the limitations of the existing social insurance method and has sought a diversification of tax sources. This study examined the major policy areas of Korean society: the labor market, income security, health care, and housing. Amid low growth without employment, the labor market needs income security and employment promotion policies, and it is necessary to improve the combination of active labor market policies by considering the effect on employment rate by policy type. It is necessary to continuously invest resources into income security due to the increase in the number of recipients of such policies brought on by a super-aging society. In the health and medical fields, it is necessary to reorganize the health care system in consideration of demographic changes due to low birth rates and an aging population, the emergence of new infectious diseases, and the sustainability of the health insurance system. Regarding housing policy, it is necessary to ensure a continuous supply of public rental housing, expand housing benefits, support suitable housing options for various income and asset levels, and utilize and improve old and vacant houses. Korea’s existing welfare policy was not composed of one package; recent attempts to expand the social safety net have also been carried out by sector, and efforts for systemic transformation are sound. Systemic transition beyond sectoral policies is possible through national consensus and social deliberation on what kind of welfare state Korea will pursue beyond an analysis of the current system.

2022-12-31

(22-07 Research Report) Conflict issues and legislative measures in the coal phase-out process

P.I : Jeong Hoon

The increasing frequency of extreme climate events globally serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for carbon neutrality. This necessitates a transition away from fossil fuels, which have been the primary driver of human progress, towards more sustainable energy sources. Of particular importance is the phasing out of coal-fired power generation, which is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Developed nations are at the forefront of this effort, taking steps to phase out coal-fired power plants in order to achieve carbon neutrality. Despite the acknowledged environmental drawbacks, coal-fired power plants have played a significant role in catalyzing the modernization, industrialization, and economic growth of nations globally since the advent of the Industrial Revolution. As nations look to phase-out coal usage, it is anticipated that various challenges and expenses will arise, including the decline of associated industries, loss of employment for workers, and ramifications on local economies. To address these social issues, developed nations and international entities are prioritizing a “just transition” as a means of mitigating these challenges. Korea has pledged to the international community to undertake a comprehensive coal phase-out by 2050 at the COP26 summit in 2021. However, in order to effectively implement such a plan, it will be crucial to establish practical policies and regulations that take into account the significant dependence of the country on coal-fired energy, as well as the potential social and economic consequences of transitioning away from this energy source. In particular, given that a majority of the nation's 57 power plants are concentrated in a few key regions, it is likely that the negative impacts of plant closures will disproportionately affect certain communities, including workers and local residents. Furthermore, the potential for stranded assets and legal disputes arising from the construction of new coal power plants must also be considered and addressed through a comprehensive and inclusive societal dialogue. Without sufficiently addressing these issues, the pursuit of a carbon-neutral policy and coal phase-out may become hindered, potentially leading to increased societal conflicts and polarization. The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) conducted a comprehensive examination of the potential social ramifications and conflicts that may arise during the domestic coal phase-out process. Through the analysis of international case studies and consultation with key stakeholders, particularly those who may be impacted and disadvantaged by the closure of coal-fired power plants, NAFI sought to proactively identify and propose policy and legislative measures aimed at mitigating these conflicts and ensuring a just transition.

2022-12-31

Brief Report

[International Strategic Foresight] Mid- to Long-term Future Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: Unified Governance on the Korean Peninsula (No. 13)

[Futures Brief] The Rise of Emerging Citizens and the Social Landscape: Future Dialogues with Citizens from Six Regions (No.9)

P.I : Park Seong-won

2022-12-05

[National Future Strategic Insight] Where Do Young People Live and Where Do They Move To? (No. 58)

P.I : Min Bo-gyeong

Recent outmigration of young people from rural areas is a major cause of population decline and economic downturn in those areas, particularly the outmigration to metropolitan areas exacerbates regional imbalance. This study seeks to find answers to where and why young people are moving and to draw political implications for improving the quality of youths’ lives and establish future strategies for the areas. Looking at the changes in interregional population migration patterns, there is an overall decrease in the scale of interregional migration. However, youth population migration is relatively active, with a tendency towards moving to the metropolitan areas. Since the main reasons for youth migration are “employment” and “housing,” this study suggests the need for regional strategies targeting the youth, including the creation of decent job opportunities and housing support policies in line with their preferences.

2022-11-28

[National Future Strategic Insight] Implications of a Just Transition Policy through Opinions from Key Stakeholders over Coal Phase-out Conflict: Focus on Workers and Local Residents (No. 57)

P.I : Jeong Hoon

This study aimed to draw implications for a just transition policy by collecting opinions of workers and local residents, who are key stakeholders involved in the major conflict issues related to coal phase-out. The survey participants were selected on a small scale, taking into consideration their understanding of coal phase-out policy and the representativeness of their opinions as stakeholders. The survey questionnaire was designed to inquire about their awareness of the climate crisis and coal phase-out policy, the major conflict issues surrounding coal phase-out, and the direction of the just transition policy. According to the survey results, both the workers and local residents, who are the main victims of coal phase-out policy, showed a high level of awareness regarding the climate crisis and coal phase-out policy. However, opinions differed on conflict issues and the direction of the just transition policy by each stakeholder group according to their positions and situations. Based on these findings, several implications were drawn, including the need for active involvement of the National Assembly in establishing and implementing a just transition policy in relation to coal phase-out, to lay a foundation for achieving carbon neutrality favorably.

2022-11-14

[International Strategic Foresight] Korean Diaspora and Peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula (No. 12)

P.I : Kim Tae-kyung

This report explores the existential position of the Korean diaspora between their home country and host country, as well as the practical implications of the Korean diaspora for peacebuilding in the context of the historical conflicts and enduring division on the Korean Peninsula. The report examined examples of the Korean diaspora’s role in peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula, including the third identity of Koreans in Japan, the peace movement of Korean-American women, and the North and South Korean defector community in the UK. By looking into these cases, the report provided reflections on how to prepare for the integration of people and the structural and cultural transformation that peacebuilding implies in the mid- to long-term.

2022-11-07

[National Future Strategic Insight] Future Policies and Resilient Innovation Strategies in the Post-COVID-19 Era (No. 56)

P.I : Yeo Yeong-jun

In this study, in order to propose mid- to long-term policy tasks for strengthening resilience in the post-COVID-19 era, key patterns of social change unfolding globally after COVID-19 were examined and scenario-based policy tasks were proposed. The study examines the main considerations for future-oriented innovation policies to strengthen the resilience of the national innovation system in response to the extensive impacts brought about by COVID-19. It also identifies the key drivers characterizing the environmental changes in the COVID-19 era and explores various possibilities for environmental changes in the COVDI-19 era based on the their interactions. Additionally, based on the key approaches and analysis results, the study proposes the “3A (Anticipation, Alliancing, and Adaptation)” strategy for transitioning to a resilient innovative system.

2022-10-31

[National Future Strategic Insight] Japan’s Age-limit Retirement Policy: A Comparative Perspective with Korea (No. 55)

P.I : Jung Hae-yoon

This report examines the characteristics and effects of the implementation process of the Japanese age-limit system to reflect on the Korean system. While the legal and institutional aspects may appear similar between the two countries, the processes of policy formation, adjustment, and decision-making differ, leading to variations in outcomes. In Japan, laws and policies serve as inherent and ultimate functions for coordinating social actions, whereas in Korea, they are perceived as external and constraining yet do not function as regulations for actors. The age-limit system is a challenge that our society needs to address, but limiting the discussion to specific legal frameworks can narrow the scope of the issue. The report highlights the need for more comprehensive policy discussions as various possibilities may be excluded and the outcomes may differ from expectations.

2022-10-24

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY FUTURES INSTITUTE

주메뉴

National Assembly Futures Institutee

Research Report

Brief Report