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[Futures Brief] Assessment of Future Impact of Science and Technology: European Parliament 2021 Report “Our Response to Unprecedented Issues” (No. 5)
Dr. Park Seong-won (Research Fellow) has confirmed that the economic and social impact was concentrated on the socially disadvantaged and vulnerable groups such as women, youth, and low-skilled workers during the two years after the COVID-19 crisis worldwide. The brief is based on a report containing a parliamentary evaluation for science and technology to respond to COVID-19 by the European Parliament Technology Assessment Network (EPTA). NAFI participates in the EPTA as an associate member. For rapidly addressing social and economic impacts of COVID-19 on the vulnerable groups, parliaments of each country have urged scientific and technological efforts such as provision of COVID-19 response information using advanced IT and the development of vaccines and therapeutics, and also jointly made efforts to respond to the crisis by establishing committees and social channels in which the government, experts, and citizens participate together. In 2021 report, EPTA evaluated that they were impressed by Korea’s efforts to track confirmed cases using advanced IT, to share data such as medical resources, and to gather experts and citizens for discussion on future prospects and countermeasures via the National Assembly.
[National Future Strategic Insight] “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” (No. 36)
This report points out that Korea has displayed unprecedented rapid economic growth, but on the other hand, individuals and societies suffer from inequality, polarization, antagonism and confrontation, thereby envisioning “Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society”, emphasizing the need for transition to a society where individuals and communities are not sacrificed for the national development goal but design the future together as equal subjects, and value quality rather than quantitative expansion. The researchers present “autonomy and decentralization”, “diversity”, “priority to the socially vulnerable” as values we have to direct towards, with 12 specific mid- to long-term agendas under four goals “individual capacity and quality of life”, “harmonized community”, “paradigm shift and sustainable growth” and “mediation and cooperation against domestic/international conflicts”. The report is intended to focus on mid- to long-term agendas that three governments should continue to push forward, considering that a new government will be launched in 2022. By analyzing the issues of consensus, potential conflict, and fierce confrontation by each agenda from various perspectives, the report presents a topic for expanding social conversation in the future. This report has been prepared to display the key points of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” of the National Mid-to-Long-Term Agenda Committee (“Committee”), which is an advisory body under the Speaker of the National Assembly established at the end of November 2020 to discover national tasks and future issues required to be continuously discussed beyond the five-year term of the administration. Future Vision 2037 Report is the outcome of Committee-supported research conducted over the past year by forming a joint research team led by NAFI, other government-funded research institutes under the jurisdiction of the National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences (NRC) and the National Research Council of Science & Technology (NST), and 60 experts from major universities. “As this report contains national agendas requiring continuous discussion beyond the five-year term of the administration, we plan to use various tools to promote the research results so that the politicians and the public can continue to take interest,” explains Research Fellow Kim Yu-bean of NAFI.
[National Future Strategic Insight] Policies to Support Industries Affected by Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Policy Effect Analysis (No. 35)
Performing a survey for 25 experts by Jeong Hoon (Research Fellow) and Yeo Yeong-jun (Associate Research Fellow), respondents answered that “pro forma opinion gathering” and “hasty and exclusive legislative process” are the biggest obstacles of domestic climate policy and legislation. They confirmed that by enhancing policies and legislation, the regulatory restructuring, promotion of domestic industry conversion and export industry support should be integrated. Further, the CBAM-oriented supports should encompass support, protection, promotion and conversion as strategic directions, including tax benefits, funding support, R&D support, distribution/commercialization, infrastructure, customized support for each industry, reasonable transaction framework, innovative system, policy governance, education and publicity. The priority of the proposed industrial support policy tasks was analyzed based on urgency and effectiveness with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which was given to R&D support, tax benefits, funding support, customized support for each industry, innovative system, distribution/commercialization, infrastructure, policy governance, reasonable transaction framework, and education and publicity in this order. Additionally, the researchers proved the importance and effectiveness of the industrial support policy by analyzing the socioeconomic ripple effect using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for “R&D support” with the highest priority, and also confirmed that major macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, social utility, and investment, which had fallen due to the CBAM, recovered somewhat with R&D support, thereby resolving the growth slowdown, as well as indirect effect of promoting carbon neutrality of the power generation sector. “As it was quantitatively confirmed that the implementation of the industrial support policy had positive economic and social effects, we could confirm the need of preparing a systematic industrial support policy for carbon neutrality as well as responding to the CBAM,” explains Dr. Jeong Hoon. “In the policy design, it is necessary to come up with an integrated support plan and improve the system thereby ensuring introduction of regulations that meet the needs of the international community and customized protection and support policies taking into account the structural characteristics of the domestic industry.”
(21-01) The Analysis of Emerging Issues
In the field of futures studies, signs and signals of the future are called emerging issues. Emerging issues are issues that would bring huge changes to society in the future, although insufficient data regarding emerging issues have appeared at present. In order to identify emerging issues in advance and prepare for them, major futures research institutes around the world put a lot of effort into emerging issue analysis under various names such as weak signals, wild cards, and early warnings. The National Assembly Futures Institute collaborated with Professor Min Song's research team at the Department of Library and Information Sciences, Yonsei University to collect 1.5 million academic literature items and applied its own computer algorithms and machine learning to derive emerging keywords. Emerging keywords are ones that are receiving new attention from experts and are expected to be mentioned more frequently in the future. About 100 domestic experts were provided with emerging keywords and asked to pick out emerging issues using the keywords, and about 70 emerging issues were identified. Researchers at the National Assembly Futures Institute rearranged these into 36 emerging issues and sent them back to 42 experts to evaluate them based on their potentiality and social impact. For example, The escalating conflict between the United States and its global allies and China, new space appeared in response to climate crisis, radical energy transition in transportation and logistics, the increase in asocial behavior, and the appearance of the mosaic family have been raised as emerging issues that will have a great impact on society. In addition, emerging issues such as Robot autonomy and social consensus, emphasis on the public nature of land, entering life in space, and eco-fascism, which are relatively unlikely to occur, but that may have ripple effects on society, were also identified. Emerging issues research can be said to be important in terms of promoting and enhancing the capability of citizens to think about and formulate responses to various changes regarding the future by assessing issues that society has not yet determined the nature of – whether they are problems or opportunities.
(21-02) Education Inequality and Social Mobility in Korea
This study investigated the trend of educational inequality in Korea, focusing on the extent to which family and income background and gender affect access to higher education. Chapter 1 briefly addressed the discourse on overall education inequality in Korea as an introduction. Chapter 2 addressed the inequality and gender gap in college entry, analyzing the latest panel data. Through the analysis, it was found that in terms of admissions to four-year and prestigious universities, the gender gap completely disappeared and differences only existed between classes. However, it was newly found that the gender gap between men and women in lower class is growing with respect to admissions to college and four-year universities. Meanwhile, the gap between men and women in the selection of science and engineering majors was not narrowed, but instead was strengthened. Chapter 3 focused on educational inequality and gender gaps in graduate school advancement in Korea using the latest data. In the graduate school entrance analysis, the influence of the socioeconomic class of the student's family on advancement to graduate school was confirmed. The results showed that the socioeconomic class of the student's family had a statistically significant correlation with graduate school advancement in Korea. In addition, it was confirmed that the degree of the correlation between parents' income and education level and graduate school advancement differs by gender. The findings imply that family background is a more important determinant for women going to graduate school than men. Lastly, Chapter 4 provided implications for policy-making based on these findings.
(21-03) Lifelong Learning Experience and Social Mobility of Underprivileged Groups of Labor Market
The rapid changes in the labor market caused by technology advancement are expected to have a great impact on underprivileged workers who are not highly educated or skilled. For this reason, lifelong learning is necessary for those workers to continuously develop their knowledge and skills in order to deal with changes in the future labor market and improve the social mobility of their social class. The purpose of this study was to understand how and why the lifelong learning experiences of the underprivileged in the labor market have had an influence, or not, on their social mobility. This study specifically explored the motivations of the underprivileged to participate in lifelong learning programs, as well as their perceptions of opportunities and access to the programs. This study further explored how the underprivileged perceive the effects of lifelong learning in terms of changes in human, psychological, and social capital, and how those effects contribute to improving their social mobility. To accomplish the purpose, this study conducted five focus group interviews with 19 workers and one-to-one interviews with seven workers from underprivileged groups in the labor market. The results of this study showed that the underprivileged who participated in lifelong learning programs have, to some extent, experienced changes in human, psychological, and social capital, and those changes contributed to entering labor market or promoting their employability. However, the effectiveness of lifelong learning programs on social mobility was shown to vary according to the social contexts in which the workers were placed, the types of learning programs and curricula offered, and the workers’ motivations to learn and overall learning strategies. This study provides implications for lifelong learning policies that are aimed toward underprivileged workers. Various strategies need to be planned and implemented to improve underprivileged workers’ physical and psychological access to lifelong learning in formal and non-formal educational contexts. As positive experiences in lifelong learning can lead to continuous efforts to learn, comprehensive learning supports need to be provided for underprivileged workers, so that they can experience changes in their work and lives as a result of their participation in lifelong learning. Also, policies need to be established and implemented to integrate lifelong learning and career development programs for disadvantaged workers. In addition, certification systems and recognition of prior learning needs to be advanced and sophisticated in a way to be highly reliable and easily utilized in the labor market and formal education system.
5th National Assembly Futures Forum Successfully Held by the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI)
5th National Assembly Futures Forum Successfully Held by the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) -It Suggested a Blueprint for Circular Economy and Future Industry- Kim Hyeon-kon, President of the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) announced that the 5th National Assembly Futures Forum, which was co-hosted by Lee Hack-young Member’s Office, Park Dae-chul Member’s Office and the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Korea, was successfully held on the subject of “Circular Economy and Future Industry” on June 9. President Kim and Eva Witteman, Deputy Ambassador of the Netherlands to South Korea, each gave the opening address, followed by congratulatory remarks from Lee Hack-young, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea and Park Dae-chul, a member of the People Power Party. Then Sung Il-jong, a member of the People Power Party and Yangyi Won-young, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, each gave a keynote address. The presentations were on the subject of “2050 Circular Economy Transition Scenario and Industrial Policy”. Arnoud Passenier, Strategic International Advisor at International Department of Netherlands' Ministry of Infrastructure and Water, gave a presentation on the topic of “Circular Economy Policy in the Netherlands”, Kim Eun-ah, an Associate Research Fellow of NAFI, gave a presentation on the “Circular Korea 2050-a Transition Scenario”, Esther Zondervan, Senior Project Manager at TNO, gave a presentation on “TNO Circular Plastics”, and Jang Yong-chul, a professor at the Department of Environmental Engineering of Chungnam National University, gave a presentation on the topic of ”Strategy and Technology Development of Plastic Circularity towards Circular Economy in Korea ”. Panelists for the discussion on the subject of the “Business Cases and Future Strategies of Korea and the Netherlands” included Lee Jong-hyuk, Vice President of SK Geo Centric, Nam Jung-il, director of Korea Iron & Steel Organization, Jung Eun-ji, CEO of DSM Nutrition Korea, Kim Jun-hyeong, CSR Specialist of Heineken Korea, and Kang Yong-nam, President of Signify Korea. Lee Hack-young, a member of National Assembly, said that he hopes “NAFI will further develop and study circular economy, and continue to do so until policy can be legislated”, and Sung Il-jong, a member of National Assembly, said that “the National Assembly must refer to cases of advanced countries practicing circular economy and discuss relevant legal and institutional strategies.” Yangyi Won-young, a member of National Assembly, said that he hopes “Korea will become a society where index targets for the circular economy are set”. And Kim Eun-ah, an Associate Research Fellow of NAFI, proposed a mid-to-long-term strategy founded upon the current lack of new growth engine and of strategy for circular economy and resource security. This forum discussed green transition strategy and mid-to-long-term development plans that can create a new growth engine, while wisely utilize the limited resources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the era of the Great Transition. President Kim Hyeon-kon stressed that “the 5th National Assembly Futures Forum will allow us to share mid-to-long-term vision and the goals of the green transition of circular economy, and to discuss innovative promotion strategy for industrial transition, which will contribute to establishing policy directions in the future.” National Assembly Futures Forum is a forum for discussion on major future issues, where members of National Assembly, political parties, organizations under the National Assembly and panel of experts can exchange opinions and alternatives with each other. The forum is available to watch on the NAFI YouTube channel.
Future Vision Report for “Transition from Growth Oriented to Matured Society” Will be Co-Presented by National...
Future Vision Report for “Transition from Growth Oriented to Matured Society” Will be Co-Presented by National Mid-to-Long-Term Agenda Committee, National Assembly Futures Institute and National Assembly Library Future Vision Report for “Transition from Growth Oriented to Matured Society” co-presented by National Mid-to-Long-Term Agenda Committee (NALTAC), National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) and National Assembly Library will be released at National Assembly Busan Library on April 5, 1:30 pm and broadcast live on YouTube. This Future Vision Report was designed to share the achievements of the “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth Oriented to Matured Society” with the people to form a social consensus. The “Future Vision 2037” will be the collection of the results of the research conducted by the joint research team of more than 60 experts from a group of organizations led by NALTAC and other institutions including NAFI, National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences (NRC), and government-funded research institutes under National Research Council of Science & Technology (NST). The report details that even though Korea was able to develop through its economic growth at unprecedented speed, individuals and the society are suffering from inequality, polarization, animosity and conflict. And it suggests “Transition from Growth Oriented to Matured Society” as a vision. NAFI research team that served as the secretariat of Future Vision 2037 will give a presentation on the findings of the Future Vision Report. It will be followed by a discussion with Kim Hyeon-kon, President of NAFI, as a moderator. The topic of the discussion will be the direction of the government operation that the new administration can take in terms of quality of life, digital transition, public conflict, prospects of future society, national strategy, etc. Panelists of this discussion will include chief researchers that participated in Future Vision 2037 research and experts from Busan Development Institute and National Assembly Library. NALTAC is an advisory body under the Speaker of the National Assembly established at the end of November 2020 to discover national tasks and future issues required to be continuously discussed beyond the five-year term of the administration. The entire report of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth Oriented to Matured Society” will be made available to the public on the official website of NAFI.
National Assembly Futures Institute, Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, and The Korean Association of...
National Assembly Futures Institute, Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, and The Korean Association of International Studies Will Hold the 4th National Assembly Futures Forum Under the Theme of “Korea’s Mid-to-Long-Term Diplomatic Strategy” National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI), together with the Korean Association of International Studies (KAIS) and the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee (FAUC) will co-host the 4th National Assembly Futures Forum on March 31 under the theme of “Korea’s Mid-to-Long-Term Diplomatic Strategy” at the Members’ Office Building. The forum will be broadcast live on the NAFI YouTube channel. This forum will provide a platform to the National Assembly and academia for an in-depth discussion on the prospects for a new international order and the direction of Korea’s diplomatic strategy in an era of ever-increasing uncertainty amid the rapidly changing world order and a renewed great power competition. It will be a forum for discussion, where NAFI, members of FAUC and leading scholars of KAIS can exchange their insights and solutions for the era of great transition with each other. Kim Sang-bae, President of KAIS; Kim Hyeon-kon, President of NAFI; and Lee Kwang-jae, Chair of FAUC are scheduled to deliver an opening speech, a welcoming address and a keynote address, respectively, followed by a congratulatory remarks by Park Byeong-seug, the Speaker of the National Assembly via video conference. Lee Jae-jung and Lee Tae-gyu, members of National Assembly of FAUC, as panelists will discuss Korea’s mid-and-long-term diplomatic strategy. In “Session1-Future Order 2040: Future International Order and Movement of Power”, Min Byeong-won, a professor at Ewha Womans University and Lee Sang-hwan, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, will give a presentation on “the Prospects of Future Order and Sino-US Power Transition”, and Kim Tae-gyun, a professor at Seoul National University will give a presentation on “the Rice of the Global South”. It will be followed by a discussion with Lee Shin-hwa, a professor at Korea University, as a moderator. Panelists of the discussion will include Kim Joon-seok, a professor at the Catholic University of Korea; Lee Yeon-ho, a professor at Yonsei University; and Song Young-hoon, a professor at Kangwon National University. In “Session 2-Future Order 2040: World’s Grand Strategy and Future Prospects”, Shin Sung-ho, a professor at Seoul National University; Cha Jung-mi, Head of NAFI’s Center for International Strategy (CIS); Shin Beom-shik, a professor at Seoul National University; Choi Jin-woo, a professor at Hanyang University; and Seo Seung-won, a professor at Korea University will each give a presentation on “The Perception of the Future and the Grand Strategy” in United States of America; China; Russia; Europe; and Japan, respectively. It will be followed by a discussion with Son Yeol, a professor at Yonsei University, as a moderator. Panelists of the discussion will include Choi Kang, Vice President of Asan Institute for Policy Studies; Kim Han-kwon, a professor at Korean National Diplomatic Academy; Jeh Sung-hoon, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; Yoon Suk-joon, a professor at Sungkonghoe University; and Lim Eun-jung, a professor at Kongju National University. In the discussion session, Park Ihn-hwi, a professor at Ewha Womans University will give a presentation on the topic of “Future Order 2040, Korea’s Global Leadership Strategy”. It will be followed by a discussion with Chun Chae-sung, a professor at Seoul National University, as a moderator. Panelists of the discussion will include Lee Jae-jung and Lee Tae-gyu, members of National Assembly of FAUC; Kim Yu-eun, a former President of KAIS and a professor at Hanyang University; and Kim Tae-hyeon, a professor at Chung-Ang University. National Assembly Futures Forum is a forum for discussion on major future issues, where members of National Assembly, political parties, organizations under the National Assembly and panel of experts can exchange opinions and alternatives with each other.
New Working Appointment in National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI)
New Working Appointment in National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI; President: Kim Hyeon-kon) announced that personnel changes were made on January 1, 2022. Research Fellow Yoo Hee-soou was appointed as the Director General of Research Support Office, and Research Fellow Kim Eun-ah as the Head of Innovative Growth Group. NAFI expects that this working appointment will enhance the performance of NAFI’s tasks with optimized operations. [Note 1] Working Appointment (Jan. 1) - Yoo Hee-soo, Director General of Research Support Office - Kim Eun-ah, Head of Innovative Growth Group Category Career Description Yoo Hee-soo, new Director General of NAFI’s Research Support Office - Ph.D. in Engineering, Department of Organic Polymer Materials, Tokyo Institute of Technology - Former budget/tax analyzer at National Assembly Budget Office (administrative officer) - Former associate research fellow at R&D Budget Policy Office, Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP) - Former Senior Researcher of IP team at Samsung Display - Former postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Cornell University Kim Eun-ah, new Head of NAFI’s Innovative Growth Group - Ph.D. in Environmental Engineering, Stanford University - Former Senior Researcher, Chemical Safety Research Center, Korea Research Institute of Chemical Technology (KRICT) (-2019.5) - Former research professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Ewha Womans University - Former postdoctoral researcher, Research TEAM of Watershed Total Volume, National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) - Former environmental planning group manager at POSCO - Former UN volunteer, Natural Science Sector of UNESCO (Beijing) - Former researcher of Energy Environment Lab, Samsung Advanced Institute of Technology
National Assembly’s Blueprint for Korea
National Assembly’s Blueprint for Korea - Compilation of mid- to long-term tasks and solutions that the five-year one-term government cannot properly deal with - Four goals and 12 specific agendas under the theme of “Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” - One-year joint research of 60 scholars from NRC and other government-funded institutes - NALTAC will deliver the blueprint to presidential candidates of ruling and opposition parties On the morning of December 8, the National Mid-to-Long-Term Agenda Committee (NALTAC) under the Speaker of the National Assembly, held a general briefing session at the reception room of the National Assembly, presenting the “Korea Future Strategy Blueprint” titled “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society”. In this blueprint, NALTAC pointed out that Korea has displayed unprecedented rapid economic growth, but on the other hand, individuals and societies suffer from inequality, polarization, antagonism and confrontation, envisioning “Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society”. To implement their new vision, NALTAC presented 12 specific solutions under four major goals “individual capacity and quality of life”, “harmonized community”, “paradigm shift and sustainable growth” and “mediation and cooperation against domestic/international conflicts” (see attachment). For “individual capacity and quality of life”, solutions to improve the individual’s quality of life were presented to enable everyone to be respected and interact with each other as dignified democratic citizens, with aid of policies regarding health safety net, underprivileged group’s right to adequate housing, work-learning-life balance, etc. For “harmonized community”, solutions centered on closing the inequity gap and community restoration accordingly expected, including but not limited to cooperative relationship between metropolitan area and regions based on decentralization, social safety net in the employment context, and institutional innovation to ensure worker’s rights. For “paradigm shift and sustainable growth”, authors paid attention on policy approach to create growth engines in terms of digital transformation, Industry 4.0 and carbon neutrality. Finally, the “mediation and cooperation against domestic/international conflicts” covered remedies for restoring political trust and strengthening Korea’s international status, including but not limited to social integration based on negotiations between the ruling and opposition parties, future-oriented smart diplomacy strategy, peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula, common prosperity of South and North Korea. “Future Vision 2037 covers mid- to long-term national tasks difficult for the five-year one-term government to properly address and shows a path for us to move forward,” said Speaker Park Byeong-seok, who attended the general briefing session. “It is a comprehensive blueprint that gathers the wisdom of domestic scholars in the humanity, social science, science and technology.” “The agendas proposed in the report are what the government should consistently promote for at least the next 15 years,” he also said. “It should be reflected in the new government’s national planning; the National Assembly should consult with the ruling and opposition parties to support it systematically.” NALTAC members, including co-chairpersons Seong Gyeong-ryung, Jeong Hae-gu, and Kim Bok-cheol, were also attended in the session. “The politicians and the public should be aware of the report, and the government must keep on establishing action plans so that the agendas are scaled up to visible policies together with the National Assembly,” they asked to the Speaker. “We will consider various ways to communicate this study’s outcomes to the candidates of the ruling and opposition parties and to the public,” answered the Speaker Park. NALTAC is an advisory body under the Speaker of the National Assembly established at the end of November 2020 to discover national tasks and future issues required to be continuously discussed beyond the five-year term of the administration. Future Vision 2037 Report is the outcome of NALTAC-supported research conducted over the past year by forming a joint research team consisting of 60 experts from NAFI, other government-funded research institutes under the jurisdiction of the National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences (NRC) and the National Research Council of Science & Technology (NST), and major universities. “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” is planned to be released in mid-December, and then anyone will be able to access the full text on the NAFI official website. [Attachment] Executive summary of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” * Contact: Kim Yu-bean, Director General of NAFI’s Research Support Office (TEL. 02-2224-9802)