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Future Research

[Futures Brief] Assessment of Future Impact of Science and Technology: European Parliament 2021 Report “Our Response to Unprecedented Issues” (No. 5)

Dr. Park Seong-won (Research Fellow) has confirmed that the economic and social impact was concentrated on the socially disadvantaged and vulnerable groups such as women, youth, and low-skilled workers during the two years after the COVID-19 crisis worldwide. The brief is based on a report containing a parliamentary evaluation for science and technology to respond to COVID-19 by the European Parliament Technology Assessment Network (EPTA). NAFI participates in the EPTA as an associate member. For rapidly addressing social and economic impacts of COVID-19 on the vulnerable groups, parliaments of each country have urged scientific and technological efforts such as provision of COVID-19 response information using advanced IT and the development of vaccines and therapeutics, and also jointly made efforts to respond to the crisis by establishing committees and social channels in which the government, experts, and citizens participate together. In 2021 report, EPTA evaluated that they were impressed by Korea’s efforts to track confirmed cases using advanced IT, to share data such as medical resources, and to gather experts and citizens for discussion on future prospects and countermeasures via the National Assembly.

2022.01.17

Future Research

[National Future Strategic Insight] “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” (No. 36)

This report points out that Korea has displayed unprecedented rapid economic growth, but on the other hand, individuals and societies suffer from inequality, polarization, antagonism and confrontation, thereby envisioning “Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society”, emphasizing the need for transition to a society where individuals and communities are not sacrificed for the national development goal but design the future together as equal subjects, and value quality rather than quantitative expansion. The researchers present “autonomy and decentralization”, “diversity”, “priority to the socially vulnerable” as values we have to direct towards, with 12 specific mid- to long-term agendas under four goals “individual capacity and quality of life”, “harmonized community”, “paradigm shift and sustainable growth” and “mediation and cooperation against domestic/international conflicts”. The report is intended to focus on mid- to long-term agendas that three governments should continue to push forward, considering that a new government will be launched in 2022. By analyzing the issues of consensus, potential conflict, and fierce confrontation by each agenda from various perspectives, the report presents a topic for expanding social conversation in the future. This report has been prepared to display the key points of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” of the National Mid-to-Long-Term Agenda Committee (“Committee”), which is an advisory body under the Speaker of the National Assembly established at the end of November 2020 to discover national tasks and future issues required to be continuously discussed beyond the five-year term of the administration. Future Vision 2037 Report is the outcome of Committee-supported research conducted over the past year by forming a joint research team led by NAFI, other government-funded research institutes under the jurisdiction of the National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences (NRC) and the National Research Council of Science & Technology (NST), and 60 experts from major universities. “As this report contains national agendas requiring continuous discussion beyond the five-year term of the administration, we plan to use various tools to promote the research results so that the politicians and the public can continue to take interest,” explains Research Fellow Kim Yu-bean of NAFI.

2022.01.10

Future Research

[National Future Strategic Insight] Policies to Support Industries Affected by Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Policy Effect Analysis (No. 35)

Performing a survey for 25 experts by Jeong Hoon (Research Fellow) and Yeo Yeong-jun (Associate Research Fellow), respondents answered that “pro forma opinion gathering” and “hasty and exclusive legislative process” are the biggest obstacles of domestic climate policy and legislation. They confirmed that by enhancing policies and legislation, the regulatory restructuring, promotion of domestic industry conversion and export industry support should be integrated. Further, the CBAM-oriented supports should encompass support, protection, promotion and conversion as strategic directions, including tax benefits, funding support, R&D support, distribution/commercialization, infrastructure, customized support for each industry, reasonable transaction framework, innovative system, policy governance, education and publicity. The priority of the proposed industrial support policy tasks was analyzed based on urgency and effectiveness with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which was given to R&D support, tax benefits, funding support, customized support for each industry, innovative system, distribution/commercialization, infrastructure, policy governance, reasonable transaction framework, and education and publicity in this order. Additionally, the researchers proved the importance and effectiveness of the industrial support policy by analyzing the socioeconomic ripple effect using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for “R&D support” with the highest priority, and also confirmed that major macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, social utility, and investment, which had fallen due to the CBAM, recovered somewhat with R&D support, thereby resolving the growth slowdown, as well as indirect effect of promoting carbon neutrality of the power generation sector. “As it was quantitatively confirmed that the implementation of the industrial support policy had positive economic and social effects, we could confirm the need of preparing a systematic industrial support policy for carbon neutrality as well as responding to the CBAM,” explains Dr. Jeong Hoon. “In the policy design, it is necessary to come up with an integrated support plan and improve the system thereby ensuring introduction of regulations that meet the needs of the international community and customized protection and support policies taking into account the structural characteristics of the domestic industry.”

2021.12.30

Future Research

(22-12 Research Report) The Future of the World Order in 2050 : Probable vs. Preferred

2022.12.31

Future Research

(22-01 Research Report) A Forecasting Research on the Futures of Korea 2050

The Future of Korea is a research initiative undertaken by the National Assembly Futures Institute, which aims to forecast the future of 2050, identify the goals that our society needs to achieve, and present various pathways to reach them. In 2021, the National Assembly Futures Institute proposed a national vision of “Going beyond a growth society to a mature society.” This vision defines a mature society as one that avoids state-led growth in favor of individual-led growth, moves beyond centralized governance to strengthen autonomous governance of local communities, and prioritizes the needs of socially underprivileged and marginalized groups above all else. To forecast the future in collaboration with the public and identify ways to realize this vision of a mature society, the National Assembly Futures Institute forecasts the future in six areas: social relations, residential environment, education, economy, politics, and international relations. The Institute develops mid- to long-term strategies and policies for each field and presents common tasks that combine top-priority policies and fields. During this process, 52 internal and external experts analyzed trends to date, forecasted the long-term future through forecast modeling, and participated in discussions to present strategies and policies necessary for our society based on the forecast results. The following are the preferred futures presented for each of the six areas: “A society of free and non-isolated individuals” in the field of social relations, “A safe and healthy life wherever you live” in the residential environment, “Expanding opportunities to rise up the social ladder anywhere” in the field of education, “A harmony between people, mother nature, and technology” in the field of economy, “Decentralized governance for the coexistence and development of diverse communities” in the field of politics, and “Smart Power Korea based on competence and trust” and “Coexistence mutually recognized by the two Koreas” in the field of international relations. While this future may be considered utopian compared to the present reality, the effort to move step by step toward this goal is crucial. By sharing and spreading the idea of incremental progress, the future gradually becomes a tangible reality. It is hoped that the results of this study will contribute to presenting a small but practical hope to our society.

2022.12.31

Future Research

(22-02 Research Report) Operation of the National Mid- to Long-term Agenda Committee and Strategy for Future Agenda Institutionalization

In the year 2021, the National Assembly established and implemented the National Mid-to-Long-term Agenda Committee, which operates under the direct oversight of the National Assembly Speaker. This represents a significant opportunity for the National Assembly to assume a proactive role in the planning and execution of state affairs, as well as identifying and addressing mid-to-long-term tasks at the national level. One notable outcome of the committee's efforts is the publication of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from a Growing Society to a Mature Society,” which aims to address structural and persistent societal issues in Korea by examining the past, present, and future of the country. The concept of a mature society is posited as a national value, however, it has been noted that there may be limitations in effectively communicating the meaning of such a society due to the diversity of interpretations associated with the term “maturity.” This may further complicate the process of formulating policies aimed at realizing a mature society. This study delves into the concept of a mature society by examining various policies and theories on growth. The study presents various state administration philosophies, such as shared growth, balanced development, and green growth, that were introduced when the new government was launched. Additionally, the study examines the perspectives of prominent political philosophers, such as Rawls, Sen, Nussbaum, Douglas Lummis, Ivan Illich, and Gilbert Liszt, on growth and competence. Based on these perspectives, the study constructs a theoretical foundation for a mature society. This theoretical foundation is then used to conduct a comparative analysis of the policies of major political parties in the presidential election, specifically focusing on the 120 national tasks of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration and how they align with the conception of a mature society. The study also maps the 120 national tasks to the 4 key goals and 12 agendas presented in the Future Vision 2037 report, which are identified as elements of the conception of a mature society: fairness and justice, equality in relationships, rights of nature, growth, and transformation. Through this analysis, the study aims to emphasize the importance of a balanced pursuit of values, competence, individual free will, and the guarantee of social function choice in the realization of a mature society, by highlighting common points and differences. The key agendas that were identified underwent a collaborative examination with esteemed professionals within the relevant domain. While a significant portion of the agendas had a substantial number of institutional deliberation, facilitating the understanding of associated concerns, there were limitations in determining a strategic course of action for specific regulatory frameworks and institutionalization. Further research is deemed necessary to address these areas and supplement the current findings. The agendas of societal progress often entail a plethora of conflicting interests and contentious debates. In order to actualize the aspiration of a fully developed society, it is imperative that politics plays a crucial role in adeptly navigating these conflicts and fostering a consensus toward a shared vision of the future. In this study, we shall delve into the rationale behind why the National Assembly should assume such a responsibility, utilizing various political theories as a lens of analysis. Furthermore, we propose the creation of a 'Future Governance Select Committee' which aims to bring the aforementioned vision to fruition. Through this committee, the National Assembly will be able to formulate and implement long-term strategic plans and policies at a national level, representing a departure from its traditional role.

2022.12.31

Future Research

2019 Annual Report

2020.05.29

Future Research

2020 Annual Report

2022.07.31

Future Research

2021 Annual Report

2022.07.31

News Release

NAFI Holds 7th National Assembly Futures Forum, “Diagnosing Korea’s Readiness for the Future with Data”

2022.11.23

News Release

NAFI Concludes 6th National Assembly Futures Forum: the Future of Youth, Youth of the Future

NAFI Concludes 6th National Assembly Futures Forum: the Future of Youth, Youth of the Future -Seeking alternative youth policies for the future- The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI, President Kim Hyeon-kon) wrapped up the 6th National Assembly Futures Forum: the Future of Youth, Youth of the Future on September 29. The event was organized jointly with National Assembly study groups (National Assembly 2040 Youth Café, National Integration Forum) and the National Youth Policy Institute (NYPI). NAFI President Kim Hyeon-kon kicked off the forum with his opening remarks. He was followed by congratulatory remarks by National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo, Co-representative Yoo Jung-ju of the National Assembly 2040 Youth Café, National Integration Forum Delegate Jeong Woon-chun, Spokesperson of the Democratic Party Oh Young-hwan, Democratic Party Supreme Council member Jang Kyung-tae, and National Assembly Secretary General Lee Kwang-jae. Youth Policy Network Head Lee Ju-hyung gave a presentation on the Present and Future of Youth Policies, followed by a presentation by NAFI’s Youth Future Committee members on Voice of Young Generation on Housing, Jobs, and Political Participation for Young People. The subsequent discussion on urgent issues facing the young generation was chaired by NYPI President Kim Hyuncheol and attended by Basic Income Party Spokesperson Shin Ji-hye; Minsnail Union activist Ga Won; BigWave (Korean Youth Climate Change Network) Head Kim Min; Youth Policy Coordination Director General Song Gyeong-won at the Office of Government Policy Coordination; NAFI Associate Research Fellow Lee Sang-jic; and Youth Policy Hub Center Director Chun Young-min at the Korea Employment Information Service. National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo said: “The prospects for the nation turn gloomy when young people abandon their dreams. Young people must have a say in governance to ensure a better life for themselves.” Lawmaker Yoo Jung-ju noted, “I hope this forum will initiate a process for looking into young people’s lives and discussing realistic alternatives to existing youth policies.” “We can help people make a difference and eventually reshape the entire landscape when the voice of every last young person is reflected,” stressed Lawmaker Jeong Woon-chun. Lawmaker Oh Young-hwan said, “I will pay careful attention to the youth-related issues discussed during the forum and seek their solutions.” “Young people are not bystanders; rather they are protagonists who need to participate in politics. I will work hard to make the Republic of Korea and our future society more sustainable,” said Lawmaker Jang Kyung-tae. This forum focused more on the essence of youth issues to identify and address significant and urgent issues directly related to the lives of young people. NAFI President Kim noted, “The young generation should lead the society of the future. Based on what we have found in the 6th National Assembly Futures Forum, we will seek ways to establish a better future and better alternatives to youth policies.” National Assembly Futures Forum is a venue where those making up the National Assembly, including lawmakers, political parties, and institutions under the National Assembly, along with professionals from various sectors, discuss significant future issues to seek better alternatives together. Previous forums are available on the NAFI YouTube channel and the National Assembly Television (NATV).

2022.09.30

News Release

NAFI Holds Launching Ceremony for Youth Future Committee

NAFI Holds Launching Ceremony for Youth Future Committee -Plans laid for involving the young generation in future research- The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI, President Kim Hyeon-kon) launched the 2022 Youth Future Committee in a ceremony held in the National Assembly Members’ Office Building on the 28th. The ceremony began with a brief description of NAFI, followed by a welcome speech, letters of appointment presentation, and sharing of future visions. The Youth Future Committee is designed to involve members of the young generation in future research by NAFI and reinterpret the research findings from their point of view. The committee’s predecessor is Future Creator in 2021. The committee consists of nine members. Their activities are to: (1) plan, supervise, give presentation on, and discuss the academic events led by the committee; (2) promote join research by institutions (to present opinions and answer as interviewees from the perspective of youth on future issues, etc.); (3) participate in international organization meetings (talks about future with overseas youth); and (4) disseminate institutional research findings while producing promotional contents. NAFI President Kim Hyeon-kon said: “The committee will be a venue for members to engage in various activities on significant future-related issues, collecting and reflecting the thoughts of young people.”

2022.06.29

News Release

5th National Assembly Futures Forum Successfully Held by the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI)

5th National Assembly Futures Forum Successfully Held by the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) -It Suggested a Blueprint for Circular Economy and Future Industry- Kim Hyeon-kon, President of the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) announced that the 5th National Assembly Futures Forum, which was co-hosted by Lee Hack-young Member’s Office, Park Dae-chul Member’s Office and the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Korea, was successfully held on the subject of “Circular Economy and Future Industry” on June 9. President Kim and Eva Witteman, Deputy Ambassador of the Netherlands to South Korea, each gave the opening address, followed by congratulatory remarks from Lee Hack-young, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea and Park Dae-chul, a member of the People Power Party. Then Sung Il-jong, a member of the People Power Party and Yangyi Won-young, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, each gave a keynote address. The presentations were on the subject of “2050 Circular Economy Transition Scenario and Industrial Policy”. Arnoud Passenier, Strategic International Advisor at International Department of Netherlands' Ministry of Infrastructure and Water, gave a presentation on the topic of “Circular Economy Policy in the Netherlands”, Kim Eun-ah, an Associate Research Fellow of NAFI, gave a presentation on the “Circular Korea 2050-a Transition Scenario”, Esther Zondervan, Senior Project Manager at TNO, gave a presentation on “TNO Circular Plastics”, and Jang Yong-chul, a professor at the Department of Environmental Engineering of Chungnam National University, gave a presentation on the topic of ”Strategy and Technology Development of Plastic Circularity towards Circular Economy in Korea”. Panelists for the discussion on the subject of the “Business Cases and Future Strategies of Korea and the Netherlands” included Lee Jong-hyuk, Vice President of SK Geo Centric, Nam Jung-il, director of Korea Iron & Steel Organization, Jung Eun-ji, CEO of DSM Nutrition Korea, Kim Jun-hyeong, CSR Specialist of Heineken Korea, and Kang Yong-nam, President of Signify Korea. Lee Hack-young, a member of National Assembly, said that he hopes “NAFI will further develop and study circular economy, and continue to do so until policy can be legislated”, and Sung Il-jong, a member of National Assembly, said that “the National Assembly must refer to cases of advanced countries practicing circular economy and discuss relevant legal and institutional strategies.” Yangyi Won-young, a member of National Assembly, said that he hopes “Korea will become a society where index targets for the circular economy are set”. And Kim Eun-ah, an Associate Research Fellow of NAFI, proposed a mid-to-long-term strategy founded upon the current lack of new growth engine and of strategy for circular economy and resource security. This forum discussed green transition strategy and mid-to-long-term development plans that can create a new growth engine, while wisely utilize the limited resources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the era of the Great Transition. President Kim Hyeon-kon stressed that “the 5th National Assembly Futures Forum will allow us to share mid-to-long-term vision and the goals of the green transition of circular economy, and to discuss innovative promotion strategy for industrial transition, which will contribute to establishing policy directions in the future.” National Assembly Futures Forum is a forum for discussion on major future issues, where members of National Assembly, political parties, organizations under the National Assembly and panel of experts can exchange opinions and alternatives with each other. The forum is available to watch on the NAFI YouTube channel.

2022.06.10

News Release

NAFI and National Assembly Library Conclude Business Agreement

2022.05.23

Research Report

(22-12 Research Report) The Future of the World Order in 2050 : Probable vs. Preferred

P.I : Cha Jung-mi

2022-12-31

(22-01 Research Report) A Forecasting Research on the Futures of Korea 2050

P.I : Park Seong-won

2022-12-31

(22-02 Research Report) Operation of the National Mid- to Long-term Agenda Committee and Strategy for Future Agenda Institutionalization

P.I : Park Sang-hoon

2022-12-31

(22-03 Research Report) The Development of Learning Support Indicators for Improving Innovation Capabilities

P.I : Sung Moon-ju

The heightened emphasis on innovation, driven by global competitiveness, the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and governmental strategies centered on innovative growth, has elicited a growing interest in the development of diagnostic indicators that can assess the provision of learning support for employees and college students. This study endeavors to create such indicators, with a focus on the critical role of learning in enhancing individual innovation capabilities, and to continuously monitor governmental policies aimed at improving learning support. This study followed a step-by-step approach, proceeding in a cyclical and non-linear manner. Initially, to conceptualize learning that can enhance individuals' innovation capabilities, modes of learning that foster such capabilities were identified through the examination of expert consultation outcomes and a thorough review of relevant literature. This study considers learning that encourages experimentation through trial-and-error methods as being paramount in fostering individuals' innovation capabilities. This study posits that a focus on informal learning, self-directed learning, experiential learning, learning through mistakes, and collaborative learning is crucial in enhancing the innovation capabilities of both employees and college students. Following this, this study conducted a comprehensive review of the literature to identify the key determinants of innovation capability and developed a conceptual framework for learning support. It differentiated the factors affecting learning for innovation into personal characteristics, such as resilience, and environmental elements, such as a culture that embraces learning through failure and experimentation. The researchers utilized a combination of literature review and brainstorming to arrive at a set of learning enablers and disablers that impact the development of innovation capabilities. The objective of this study was to design learning support indicators and a classification system. The indicators were derived from the results of research meetings and a review of prior studies, with the aim of aligning them with statistical data and indicators collected by government agencies, research institutes, and public organizations. The study developed a framework that categorizes indicators into environmental and personal factors, in accordance with the literature review for this study and based on Amabile's (1988) componential model of organizational innovation. The environmental dimension was further divided into system and culture sub-dimensions, while the personal dimension was split into cognitive and non-cognitive competencies. The study synthesized influencing factors from relevant theories, models, and previous studies and utilized it as a guide in creating the learning support components and indicators. The study concluded with the administration of two Delphi surveys. These surveys sought to validate learning support indicators, framework, and learning modes aimed at enhancing innovation capabilities. To this end, 20 experts participated in the validation process. The initial Delphi survey was based on a draft of the learning support indicators, which were designed for both employees and college students. Based on the feedback received from the first survey, the research team made revisions to the learning modes, indicator classification system, and the names and definitions of the indicators. Subsequently, a second Delphi survey was conducted, utilizing the revised learning support indicators. The results of this survey were analyzed and used to finalize the learning modes, learning support indicators, and the classification system. The final version of the indicators comprised a total of 25 indicators, with separate sets for employees and college students.

2022-12-31

(22-04 Research Report) Research on Strategic Tasks for Transition to a Creative Learning Society to Accelerate the Transformation of the Innovation Paradigm

P.I : Yeo Yeong-jun

Korea achieved rapid economic growth by effectively learning and adopting advanced technologies and knowledge. However, the limitations of the catch-up growth model are becoming more apparent as the country aims to transition to an innovative economy. To achieve this goal, it is crucial that individuals across different sectors engage in a variety of learning activities, instead of relying solely on specific industries or companies. Additionally, it is important to expand the positive effects of learning to support the adaptability of the workforce. Despite this need, there are concerns that current innovation policy in Korea does not sufficiently support the development of a culture of self-directed learning and lifelong learning, which is necessary for the reinforcement of adaptability through the design of career plans based on individual self-learning and participation in learning activities throughout the life cycle. With this context in mind, the current study aims to analyze the main institutional limitations and policy issues present within Korea's innovation system, specifically with regards to fostering diverse creative learning and building a learning society. Furthermore, this study aims to propose concrete policy solutions to address these issues and support the transition to a society where creative learning is embraced. To achieve this, the study intends to conduct a comprehensive analysis of policy alternatives and leverage points within various institutions, including Technical and Vocational Education, Workplace-based Learning, Higher Education Institutions, Middle-aged People, Local Communities, and others, from a systemic perspective. Through these efforts, the study aims to identify key policy tasks and long-term visions to support the successful transition of the innovation system, with the ultimate goal of providing guidance for creating a national, forward-looking innovation strategy.

2022-12-31

(22-05 Research Report) Future of the youth, youth in the future

P.I : Lee Sang-jic

This study endeavors to critically analyze the youth problem in Korea by investigating the social conditions that influence their lives and thoughts. Theresearch focuses the interplay between the societal structures that regulatethe lives of young people and the roles and perceptions that the youth hold inthe society in order to gain a comprehensive understanding of the youthexperience in Korea. This study is an attempt to understand the nature of the current situationsurrounding the youth of Korea from a historical and comparative perspective. We tried to identify the social conditions that define the lives oftoday’s youth in Korea, as well as the characteristics of their lives. In other words, we attempted to examine the structure and system that regulate the life of young people on one hand and the roles and perceptions of young people on the other hand. Chapter 1 places the context in which the current situation of young people emerged in the context of the formation and change of the modern life course. Chapter 2 traces how the concept of youth was formed and changed in Korea through the analysis of newspaper articles. Chapter 3 captures the structure of discourse on young people since the 2000s. In Korean society, the concept of youth has changed from a ‘social’ phenomenon to a ‘cultural’ phenomenon, to an ‘economic’ phenomenon. Chapter 4 checks how general changes in the modern life course are revealed in the context of Korea. The characteristics of Korea are also confirmed in a comparative study on the structure of youth employment (chapter 5). Korea is an example of ‘jobless growth’. This transitional context seems to be reflected in the role structure and perception structure of young people. Chapter 6 compares the roles and thoughts of young people in 7 countries during the transition to adulthood. Chapter 7 historically examines the flow of the young population movement. Although the total population movement decreased, the movement of young people from the region to the metropolitan area increased. In Chapters 8 and 9, aspects of subjective perception, such as the perception of inequality and happiness among young people, were reviewed. Chapter 10 reviews policy on young people. Many of the policies focus on employment. The case analysis in Chapter 11 shows that policies need to consider the wider context. The implications of the study indicate that there is a need to critically re-evaluate the way in which Korean society perceives and understands youth. Traditionally, the societal focus on youth has been centered on the notions of ‘preparing young people for employment and marriage’, which is based on the assumptions of those who view these events as natural life experiences. This perspective is instrumental in nature and may not be adequate in light of the current societal changes. The implication of this recognition is that adolescence should no longer be viewed as a transitional stage, an immature stage, but rather as a life stage that is worthy of recognition in its own right. This shift in perspective calls for a move away from the notion of “doing something for young people” and instead, providing them with channels and opportunities for participating, voicing and decision-making.

2022-12-31

(22-06 Research Report) The Welfare System in the Age of Low Growth without Employment and the Advent of a Super-Aged Society

P.I : Lee Chae-jeong

Now is the time to discuss a sustainable welfare system an economy in continued low growth without increased employment that meets the needs of an emerging super-aged society. This study examines how the welfare system is changing through the lens of international comparison, and examines the case of Korea specifically, to derive policy implications for the design of a welfare system that can flexibly respond to an era of low growth without employment and a society that is super-aged. From 1990 until recently, changes in the welfare system have been analyzed using country-specific statistics provided by the OECD. As a result, OECD countries are seeking changes in their methods of financing and distributing social expenditures in response to the deterioration of government fiscal soundness and the increasing demand for social benefits. OECD member countries have shown a tendency to decrease the share of social security contributions from tax sources. The proportion of social expenditures for cash benefits for the elderly has increased, as has the share of in-kind policy support for families. The United Kingdom, France, and Finland were examined to investigate changes in the welfare system by type of welfare state. In the UK, the average share of social security contributions has been maintained at 20–30%, while the share of personal income tax, value added tax, and capital gains tax has increased. Finland’s welfare resources consist of national and local taxes, employment funds, and pension contributions. In France, social security contributions have gradually decreased, and the share of general social contributions has gradually increased. As low growth without employment has continued, the French government has recognized the limitations of the existing social insurance method and has sought a diversification of tax sources. This study examined the major policy areas of Korean society: the labor market, income security, health care, and housing. Amid low growth without employment, the labor market needs income security and employment promotion policies, and it is necessary to improve the combination of active labor market policies by considering the effect on employment rate by policy type. It is necessary to continuously invest resources into income security due to the increase in the number of recipients of such policies brought on by a super-aging society. In the health and medical fields, it is necessary to reorganize the health care system in consideration of demographic changes due to low birth rates and an aging population, the emergence of new infectious diseases, and the sustainability of the health insurance system. Regarding housing policy, it is necessary to ensure a continuous supply of public rental housing, expand housing benefits, support suitable housing options for various income and asset levels, and utilize and improve old and vacant houses. Korea’s existing welfare policy was not composed of one package; recent attempts to expand the social safety net have also been carried out by sector, and efforts for systemic transformation are sound. Systemic transition beyond sectoral policies is possible through national consensus and social deliberation on what kind of welfare state Korea will pursue beyond an analysis of the current system.

2022-12-31

(22-07 Research Report) Conflict issues and legislative measures in the coal phase-out process

P.I : Jeong Hoon

The increasing frequency of extreme climate events globally serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for carbon neutrality. This necessitates a transition away from fossil fuels, which have been the primary driver of human progress, towards more sustainable energy sources. Of particular importance is the phasing out of coal-fired power generation, which is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Developed nations are at the forefront of this effort, taking steps to phase out coal-fired power plants in order to achieve carbon neutrality. Despite the acknowledged environmental drawbacks, coal-fired power plants have played a significant role in catalyzing the modernization, industrialization, and economic growth of nations globally since the advent of the Industrial Revolution. As nations look to phase-out coal usage, it is anticipated that various challenges and expenses will arise, including the decline of associated industries, loss of employment for workers, and ramifications on local economies. To address these social issues, developed nations and international entities are prioritizing a “just transition” as a means of mitigating these challenges. Korea has pledged to the international community to undertake a comprehensive coal phase-out by 2050 at the COP26 summit in 2021. However, in order to effectively implement such a plan, it will be crucial to establish practical policies and regulations that take into account the significant dependence of the country on coal-fired energy, as well as the potential social and economic consequences of transitioning away from this energy source. In particular, given that a majority of the nation's 57 power plants are concentrated in a few key regions, it is likely that the negative impacts of plant closures will disproportionately affect certain communities, including workers and local residents. Furthermore, the potential for stranded assets and legal disputes arising from the construction of new coal power plants must also be considered and addressed through a comprehensive and inclusive societal dialogue. Without sufficiently addressing these issues, the pursuit of a carbon-neutral policy and coal phase-out may become hindered, potentially leading to increased societal conflicts and polarization. The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) conducted a comprehensive examination of the potential social ramifications and conflicts that may arise during the domestic coal phase-out process. Through the analysis of international case studies and consultation with key stakeholders, particularly those who may be impacted and disadvantaged by the closure of coal-fired power plants, NAFI sought to proactively identify and propose policy and legislative measures aimed at mitigating these conflicts and ensuring a just transition.

2022-12-31

Brief Report

[Futures Brief] Assessment of Future Impact of Science and Technology: European Parliament 2021 Report “Our Response to Unprecedented Issues” (No. 5)

P.I : Park Seong-won

2022-01-17

[National Future Strategic Insight] “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” (No. 36)

P.I : Kim Yu-bean

2022-01-10

[National Future Strategic Insight] Policies to Support Industries Affected by Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Policy Effect Analysis (No. 35)

P.I : Jeong Hoon, Yeo Yeong-jun

2021-12-30

[National Future Strategic Insight] Future Strategies to Response to Population Shock: Mitigation and Adaptation (No. 34)

P.I : Min Bo-gyeong

Dr. Min Bo-gyeong, the Head of Quality of Life Group, has classified regions based on variables reflecting population, regional economy, and spatial characteristics, and suggested, in consideration of regional characteristics, the need to properly mix the adaptation strategy premised on population decline and the mitigation strategy for population growth. Dr. Min also proposed that, as a variety of proper responses sought, it is necessary to (1) stablish a region-led future strategy that reflects regional characteristics and emphasizes the autonomy of local governments; (2) promote customized future strategies and define the role of the central government; (3) review the existing regional development methods centered on strategies to overcome population decline and demographic change, and (4) convert into a regional policy system and seek active measures to respond to demographic changes, thereby balancing population and living conditions. According to the report, a death cross occurred in 2020 with fewer births than deaths, and birth rate decline has been spreading from underdeveloped areas to small and medium-sized cities and large cities for more than 20 years, observing significant difference between regions. Dr. Min emphasized that it is inevitable to shift from the past regional development strategy on the assumption of population growth, with awareness that the crisis of population decline is a reality and it is necessary to build up effective strategies. “Concentration in the metropolitan area and population decline in rural areas should be recognized as a national crisis, not a regional crisis,” explains Dr. Min. “As population decline and demographic changes are expected to keep intensifying , it is necessary to appropriately implement local government-led mitigation sand adaptation strategies reflecting regional characteristics.”

2021-12-23

[National Future Strategic Insight] Exploring Improvements in Framework for Social Services due to Low Birth Rate and Aging Society (No. 33).

P.I : Lee Chae-jeong

Dr. Lee Chae-jeong drew a distribution map of early childhood care and education (ECCE) services, school age services, elderly long-term care (ELTC) services, and nursing hospitals within the living environment. For the ECCE and school age services, differences in competition and exclusion levels were observed between regions with a high density of children and regions otherwise. The ELTC services and nursing hospitals showed various distribution patterns by region in terms of competition and exclusion levels. The term “competition level” herein is defined as the number of available service providers versus the service target population; “exclusion level” is defined as the size of target population for which no services are available within their living environment. In particular, relatively higher completion/exclusion levels were recorded in Sejong and Jeju, while Seoul showed higher completion level and lower exclusion level in childhood care services. Both competition and exclusion levels were lower in Gangwon-do and Chungcheongbuk-do. A relatively higher exclusion level for childhood care services was observed in In Gyeongsangbuk-do and Gyeongsangnam-do. Dr. Lee, based on outcomes of her research, concluded that different approaches are needed in reorganizing a social service framework by region. She also suggested that it is necessary to expand the ELTC service framework to the extent that satisfies the demand in consideration of a super-aged society we are about to face and regional characteristics; to efficiently reduce ECCE facilities in regions where the service providers are crowded considering the declined birth rate; and to build a national network of the ECCE services to ensure the “National Minimum”.

2021-12-15

[National Future Strategic Insight] College Education to Improve Entrepreneurial Mindset of Youth (No. 32)

P.I : Sung Moon-ju

Dr. Sung Moon-ju (Associate Research Fellow) has pointed out lack of entrepreneurial mindset in Korea, and suggested that changes and innovations are needed in college education to foster such mindset for young people who are preparing to enter the labor market or in the early stages of their careers. Entrepreneurial mindset is drawing considerable attention for successful response to changes caused by the recent growth slowdown and 4.0 Industry, which is a specific set of capabilities to proactively seize opportunities, take risks, and turn new ideas into economically and socially valuable products, services, and processes. According to the study, the entrepreneurial mindset positively influences start-up, employment, career, psychosocial status, attitude and college life of students. In addition, college education will contribute to cultivating mindset in young people with continuous efforts to foster entrepreneurship, improve awareness of entrepreneurs creating socioeconomic values, and revitalize start-ups and job creation. Especially, in order to cultivate the entrepreneurial mindset of the youth and our society, changes are necessary in terms of the role of colleges, educational paradigms, curriculum and methodology. Others required simultaneously include changes in social and cultural factors, such as social sharing of risk of failure following challenges through new education practice and social safety nets, and institutional factors such as innovation in government regulations and startup support process. “This report identified the role and promotion factors of entrepreneurship for college students with analysis of previous studies, and drew takeaways referring to the cases of Dutch universities,” explains Dr. Sung.

2021-12-09

[Futures Brief] 15 Emerging Issues in 2022 (No. 4)

P.I : Park Seong-won

Park Seong-won, the Head of Innovative Growth Group, has selected highly likable nd influential issues out of 15 emerging issues that will draw considerable attention in 2022: (1) a new phase of the U.S.-China conflicts; (2) frequent environmental disasters and increased international disputes; (3) rapid progress energy transition; (4) response to the climate crisis; (5) advancement of virtual reality; (6) A.I. misuse and algorithm bias; (7) desocialization; (8) increase in social care works; (9) negotiation for a new wage system agreement; and (9) “mosaic family”. Less likable but influential emerging issues in his prediction include: (1) land publicity; (2) combination of energy independence and decentralization; (3) autonomy of robots and social consensus; (4) habitable zone in space; and (5) ecofascism. Highly likable and influential issues are issues currently occurring and expected to become more severe in the future. It is predicted that international disputes will be further intensified focusing on environmental preservation and technology competition; climate crisis responses and A.I. technology will lead to social confusion and concerns; a degree of independence will be driven by individualist society; and socially vulnerable groups will be more isolated. For less likable but influential issues, ecofacism may be emerged as a political reaction to environmental conservation while public domain, the influence of technology and human interactions may tend to expand. It is also predicted that crisis response may require publicity, social consensus and decentralization; calls for safe zones may increase with the radical development of technology; and a new trend of recognizing the space as a zone people can live in may be also emerged. “It is reasonable to understand most of the emerging issues raised as future changes including current discussions,” explains Dr. Park. “If we keep publicizing less likable but influential emerging issues, we will be able to respond to Black Swans such as the global financial crisis or pandemic.”

2021-12-02

[International Strategic Foresight] Changes in International Conflicts Viewed from Big Data (GDELT) (No. 6)

P.I : Park, Sung Jun

Dr. Park, Sung Jun (Associate Research Fellow) has found that transition in the conflict index, identified by GDELT, corresponds to the changes in international relations as understood by us to the certain extent, and captures more accurately the changes in conflict between two countries as compared with the tone information provided by the GDELT Event Database. In this report, he constructed a conflict index based on the average tone information and the number of events provided by GDELT Event Database, and observed changes in relations between countries using such an index. It was confirmed that: Korea-Japan disputes were drastically intensified due to Japan’s restriction on the export of high-tech materials used in semiconductors and displays in July 2019; Korea-China relations deteriorated considerably after Korea announced its intention to deploy THAAD and China imposed an unofficial boycott in the first half of 2017; South Korea-North Korea relations significantly deteriorated due to PMD mine incident in 2015, nuclear test and launch of satellites in 2016; U.S.-North Korea relations were most hostile in 2016 when America citizens were arrested in North Korea UN Security Council resolution was adopted to impose additional sanctions on North Korea, and North Korea has carried out the test launch of the long range ballistic missiles; U.S.-China relations deteriorated sharply by the military activities in the contested South China Sea, the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, and the closure of the U.S. consulate in Chengdu in 2020; and Australia-China conflict fully began in 2020 when Australia stood on the side of the United Stated and called for an investigation of COVID-19. “This study focused on the derivation and verification of conflict index. I expect that this index can be used to analyze and forecast international relations and the impact of conflicts between countries on the economy of such countries and worldwide,” explains Dr. Park.

2021-11-25

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY FUTURES INSTITUTE

주메뉴

National Assembly Futures Institutee

Research Report

Brief Report