National Assembly Futures Institute

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY FUTURES INSTITUTE

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Future Research

[International Strategic Foresight] Mid- to Long-term Future Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: Unified Governance on the Korean Peninsula (No. 13)
The mid- to long-term future of peace and shared prosperity on the Korean Peninsula fundamentally depends on the question of whether it is possible to establish a new unit for a unified Korean Peninsula that transcends the multilayered rifts and division between the two Koreas. The report defined “collective governance,” which facilitates sustainable peacebuilding on a unified Korean Peninsula, as a concept that embraces the realization of collective institutionalization, as well as the civil society as a “community of people.” The report proposed a differentiated methodology for integration that emerged from the long-term and gradual integration process of the European Union while presenting the collective governance of the Korean Peninsula as a mid- to long-term future strategy.

2022.12.19

Future Research

[National Future Strategic Insight] Improvement Directions of University Education for Enhancing Innovative Capabilities of Talented People: Learning Support and the Development of Diagnostic Indicato
Changes in university education are required to strengthen innovation capabilities for the sustainable development of the nation economy through innovation in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Also, policy discussions and support for effective learning support are needed to enhance the innovative capabilities of university students who are in the stage of preparing for entry into the labor market. However, there are relatively less policy discussions on changes in teaching method in specific educational settings compared to discussions on changing the content and curriculum of university education. The study aims to explore directions and strategies for enhancing the effectiveness of learning support in relation to the changing direction of university education to strengthen the innovation capabilities of talented people. Thus, it presented the “diagnostic indicator for learning support to enhance innovative capabilities of university students” developed based on learning paradigms, learning types, and learning support strategies that should be emphasized in the new environment, as well as implications and ways of utilization.

2022.12.12

Future Research

[Futures Brief] The Rise of Emerging Citizens and the Social Landscape: Future Dialogues with Citizens from Six Regions (No.9)
In this study, emerging citizens who experience deepening social problems such as climate crisis, South-North conflict, unbalanced development, residential insecurity, family dissolution, technological disparity, and environmental destruction were discovered, and we engaged in future dialogues with them. Emerging citizens pointed out several social issues, including government policies that drive citizens away if they fail to quickly achieve their dreams, policies that invest in external appearances and neglect accumulation of cultural assets, ongoing conflict between economic growth and environmental preservation and the lack of solutions, a culture that discriminates against minorities and vulnerable groups when society feels insecure, the dissolution of families and communities along with the weakening of social care, and a government that destroys the future generations and the future environment, and stressed that the government should address these problems to ensure that more citizens do not experience feelings of insecurity and discouragement.

2022.12.05

Future Research

(22-12 Research Report) The Future of the World Order in 2050 : Probable vs. Preferred
The end of the Cold War in 1990s brought about the era of US-led liberal international order with its robust economic integration and globalization. However, the great power politics and geopolitical tensions have been revived and intensified three decades after the Cold War. In the environment of intensifying the great power competition between the US and China, the war in Ukraine has dramatically undermined the post-Cold War order which was already being derailed away from the globalizing and liberal political economic trends. The rise of geopolitical tension and dramatic decline of globalization have brought about various discussions on where the post-Cold War era order is heading. The US national security strategy of 2022 declared that the post-Cold War era is definitively over. Then what will be next the international order in the post-post-Cold War era? The Center for International Strategies of NAFI (National Assembly Futures Institute of ROK) has been studying the various issues of international affairs in collaboration with global scholars. The theme of this 2022 global collaborative research is ‘The Future of the World Order in 2050: Probable vs. Preferred*.’ With intensifying great power rivalry and war in Ukraine, the gap between the probable future and the preferred future seems to be getting bigger. Therefore, this global collaborative research discussing and forecasting what is the most likely and what is the most preferable future for the coming international order is very important and a timely issue while we are facing with the numerous changes in the international power structure and global system. We invited 13 scholars from different countries and regions to share and discuss their views on the future of world and region. The 12 countries and regions selected are South Korea, US, China, Japan, India, Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. The main issues which the authors of this research address are the three following; the future of US and China competition, the future of power structure (bipolar vs. multipolar) and the future of their own states and regions. The final task all the authors describe is to offer suggestions for making the future international order more preferable. With these four questions, each author presents their views and strategies on probable future and preferred future. The 13 scholars from 12 countries presents their own views on the issues. This research compiles their views and presents some key takeaways from their views. The art of prediction is usually deeply linked to accuracy, but the predictions of this research do not focus on accuracy but on understanding the diverse views on the probable and preferred future of international order they perceive. Based on the mutual and comprehensive understandings on their different views, we want to take some important suggestions for a better future and suggest some solutions to enhance global cooperation for building a better future. This study includes the diverse ambitions and preferences which global states have. We believe that the future will be shaped by a confluence of different forces. The most important point is that we need to figure out how to resolve conflict and make cooperation possible even when we have different views and ways to imagine the future of international order. Even though this report’s title references the future of the international order, this report does not aim to predict the future accurately, but instead shares the diverse views of possible futures and preferred futures and provides some meaningful implications for the studies and policies regarding the future of the international order. The pieces which the 13 scholars from different countries around the world contributed for this research reflect their personal perspectives on the future of world order. This report can be regarded as an academic discussion of global scholars on the probable and preferred futures of the world order and the regions in order to share diverse views and navigate the major cognitive trends on that what is the most likely future and what is the most preferable future. We hope this study provides a good starting point to have open and constructive discussions on how to narrow the gap between the probable future and the preferred future for all. * This report does not reflect the views of any governments and organizations which the authors belong to. All of content included here are personal opinions. Indeed, the 14 authors of this report do not totally agree on each state’s and region’s perspectives on the future of world order described in this report. This report’s intention is to show the diverse and different attitudes and perspectives on the changes of the current international order between the scholars from all over the world and to understand the complicated picture of future world order each scholar has and to navigate the most preferable future of international order from the diverse discussions. By sharing the diverse views on the probable and preferred future of international order and discussing the way to cooperate for building the preferable future, we hope we can make the future world head in a more preferable direction.

2022.12.31

Future Research

(22-01 Research Report) A Forecasting Research on the Futures of Korea 2050
The Future of Korea is a research initiative undertaken by the National Assembly Futures Institute, which aims to forecast the future of 2050, identify the goals that our society needs to achieve, and present various pathways to reach them. In 2021, the National Assembly Futures Institute proposed a national vision of “Going beyond a growth society to a mature society.” This vision defines a mature society as one that avoids state-led growth in favor of individual-led growth, moves beyond centralized governance to strengthen autonomous governance of local communities, and prioritizes the needs of socially underprivileged and marginalized groups above all else. To forecast the future in collaboration with the public and identify ways to realize this vision of a mature society, the National Assembly Futures Institute forecasts the future in six areas: social relations, residential environment, education, economy, politics, and international relations. The Institute develops mid- to long-term strategies and policies for each field and presents common tasks that combine top-priority policies and fields. During this process, 52 internal and external experts analyzed trends to date, forecasted the long-term future through forecast modeling, and participated in discussions to present strategies and policies necessary for our society based on the forecast results. The following are the preferred futures presented for each of the six areas: “A society of free and non-isolated individuals” in the field of social relations, “A safe and healthy life wherever you live” in the residential environment, “Expanding opportunities to rise up the social ladder anywhere” in the field of education, “A harmony between people, mother nature, and technology” in the field of economy, “Decentralized governance for the coexistence and development of diverse communities” in the field of politics, and “Smart Power Korea based on competence and trust” and “Coexistence mutually recognized by the two Koreas” in the field of international relations. While this future may be considered utopian compared to the present reality, the effort to move step by step toward this goal is crucial. By sharing and spreading the idea of incremental progress, the future gradually becomes a tangible reality. It is hoped that the results of this study will contribute to presenting a small but practical hope to our society.

2022.12.31

Future Research

(22-02 Research Report) Operation of the National Mid- to Long-term Agenda Committee and Strategy for Future Agenda Institutionalization
In the year 2021, the National Assembly established and implemented the National Mid-to-Long-term Agenda Committee, which operates under the direct oversight of the National Assembly Speaker. This represents a significant opportunity for the National Assembly to assume a proactive role in the planning and execution of state affairs, as well as identifying and addressing mid-to-long-term tasks at the national level. One notable outcome of the committee's efforts is the publication of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from a Growing Society to a Mature Society,” which aims to address structural and persistent societal issues in Korea by examining the past, present, and future of the country. The concept of a mature society is posited as a national value, however, it has been noted that there may be limitations in effectively communicating the meaning of such a society due to the diversity of interpretations associated with the term “maturity.” This may further complicate the process of formulating policies aimed at realizing a mature society. This study delves into the concept of a mature society by examining various policies and theories on growth. The study presents various state administration philosophies, such as shared growth, balanced development, and green growth, that were introduced when the new government was launched. Additionally, the study examines the perspectives of prominent political philosophers, such as Rawls, Sen, Nussbaum, Douglas Lummis, Ivan Illich, and Gilbert Liszt, on growth and competence. Based on these perspectives, the study constructs a theoretical foundation for a mature society. This theoretical foundation is then used to conduct a comparative analysis of the policies of major political parties in the presidential election, specifically focusing on the 120 national tasks of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration and how they align with the conception of a mature society. The study also maps the 120 national tasks to the 4 key goals and 12 agendas presented in the Future Vision 2037 report, which are identified as elements of the conception of a mature society: fairness and justice, equality in relationships, rights of nature, growth, and transformation. Through this analysis, the study aims to emphasize the importance of a balanced pursuit of values, competence, individual free will, and the guarantee of social function choice in the realization of a mature society, by highlighting common points and differences. The key agendas that were identified underwent a collaborative examination with esteemed professionals within the relevant domain. While a significant portion of the agendas had a substantial number of institutional deliberation, facilitating the understanding of associated concerns, there were limitations in determining a strategic course of action for specific regulatory frameworks and institutionalization. Further research is deemed necessary to address these areas and supplement the current findings. The agendas of societal progress often entail a plethora of conflicting interests and contentious debates. In order to actualize the aspiration of a fully developed society, it is imperative that politics plays a crucial role in adeptly navigating these conflicts and fostering a consensus toward a shared vision of the future. In this study, we shall delve into the rationale behind why the National Assembly should assume such a responsibility, utilizing various political theories as a lens of analysis. Furthermore, we propose the creation of a 'Future Governance Select Committee' which aims to bring the aforementioned vision to fruition. Through this committee, the National Assembly will be able to formulate and implement long-term strategic plans and policies at a national level, representing a departure from its traditional role.

2022.12.31

Future Research

2019 Annual Report

2020.05.29

Future Research

2020 Annual Report

2022.07.31

Future Research

2021 Annual Report

2022.07.31

News Release

The National Assembly Futures Institute successfully hosted the 1st National Assembly Youth Future Forum under the ...
The National Assembly Futures Institute successfully hosted the 1st National Assembly Youth Future Forum under the theme of “Beyond the Conflicts of Korea-China-Japan Towards the Future.” - Members of the National Assembly, experts, and the younger generation came together to diagnose the causes of conflicts between Korea, China, and Japan and explore future-oriented approaches to building relationships. - On October 5th at 2:00 PM, the National Assembly Futures Institute, under the leadership of President Kim Hyeon Kon, successfully hosted the 1st National Assembly Youth Future Forum on the theme of “Beyond the Conflicts of Korea-China-Japan Towards the Future.” The forum took place in the 3rd Seminar Room of the National Assembly Members’ Office Building. President Kim Hyeong Kon stated in the opening remarks, “It is significant that the Youth Future Committee selected the topic and organized the event itself.” “I believe it is an important opportunity to discuss the topic of ‘Beyond the Conflicts of Korea-China-Japan Towards the Future’ at the national level, which is somewhat difficult for the younger generation,” he added. In his congratulatory speech, Lee Kwang-jae, Secretary-General of the National Assembly, emphasized, “Just as the European Coal and Steel Community heralded the birth of the EU in the past, I believe that a city alliance for the economic growth and prosperity of Northeast Asia is necessary through joint energy purchases among South Korea, China, and Japan.” He further highlighted “the need for cultural exchange, including the Northeast Asia integration channel, multilingual subtitles, language standardization, and railway connections.” Cho Junghun, a member of the National Assembly's Global Diplomacy and Security Forum, expressed, “Despite the significant potential in South Korea, China, and Japan in Northeast Asia, there are many difficulties.” He also expressed hope that “the forum would generate practical discussions on the conflicts and future of South Korea, China, and Japan, despite the growing negative sentiment among the younger generation towards foreigners.” At the event, Kim Sun-bin, a member of the Youth Future Committee of the National Assembly Futures Institute, delivered a presentation on the topic of “Perception of South Korea, China, and Japan Among the Youth Generation: Conflicts and Cooperation.” He pointed out that the discriminatory views and conflicts toward international students among the current youth generation are attributed to a lack of mutual understanding, negative generalizations about them, and a deficiency in opportunities for constructive dialogue and discussion. However, given that the younger generation tends to separate “friendliness” and “importance” in perception depending on the issue, he emphasized the need to utilize this as a strategic approach for the progressive future development of South Korea, China, and Japan. To achieve this, he proposed the following alternatives: (1) Establishment of a Youth Committee within the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee of the National Assembly; (2) Expansion of the Committee’s parliamentary youth exchange program to include South Korea, China, and Japan; (3) Policy improvement through bipartisan diplomatic cooperation: Institutionalization of a South Korea-China-Japan Parliamentary Union; (4) Implementation of party-level control mechanisms to avoid political strifes in education and diplomacy; and (5) The necessity to avoid media coverage that leads to the interpretation of diplomatic issues as political strifes. In the disucssion moderated by Bek Bumhym, Deputy Secretary-General of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat, Lee Wook Yeon, Professor of the Department of Chinese Language and Literature at Sogang University, explained that the hatred between South Korea, China, and Japan is commonly rooted in insecure nationalism. He stressed the importance of providing answers to the younger generation on why South Korea should thrive and encouraging communication to discuss the challenges that young people are currently facing. Lee Yoon-sik, Director of the Diplomacy and Security Center at the Yeouido Institute, pointed out that there are many differences among South Korea, China, and Japan, including in population, religion, political systems, language, territory, and historical backgrounds. In other words, there are many practical difficulties and obstacles for them to cooperate. With the premise that it is not easy for the three countries to cooperate at the same time, he expressed that there is a need for tailored cooperation strategies. Lee Seung-won, Deputy Director of the Policy Institute of Justice Party, highlighted the importance of having various channels in Korea-China-Japan relations. he also emphasized that many young people from the three countries should be able to meet on various issues. Jung Mi-ae, Special Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute, explained that the most important thing for the development of a society is pluralism that values diversity. She emphasized that it is crucial not to generalize negative biases held by others. Although there are concerns over the growing dichotomy of in Korean society, she stressed that through forums like this, the younger generation should create ways to cooperate in various aspects. Lee Se-hun, a reporter for the Kangwon Domin Ilbo, mentioned that within the media ecosystem, there is a common voice emphasizing the need for relationship improvement through cooperation, rather than seeking dominance through conflict and competition, in the context of South Korea-China-Japan issues. He highlighted the role of the media as a place where the younger generation obtains information related to diplomacy and stressed the need for solution journalism, leveraging the specificity of reporting and the communication channel. Kim Min-seo, Vice President of the OVAL KOREA, an organization formed by Korean, Chinese, and Japanese university students, expressed the challenges faced in continuing exchanges amid diplomatic difficulties. She added that apart from political issues, there are also difficulties in communication due to the language differences. Kim called for interest and support in realizing neutral policies that allow exchanges between Korea, China, and Japan to continue without being constrained by political situations, emphasizing the lack of support from the National Assembly or the government. Shin Yoo-ri, a member of the Youth Future Committee at the National Assembly Futures Institute, stated that hate speech, bias, and hostility are increasing on online and social media platforms. To address this issue, she outlined the need for: (1) Establishing a digital exchange program in Northeast Asia; (2) Strengthening exchanges for youth in Northeast Asia; (3) Creating an independent youth assembly; (4) Multifaceted support from international organizations, regional entities, institutions, and political foundations; and (5) Securing a sustainable shared platform for resolving common challenges in Northeast Asia. The purpose of this forum is to focus on how the politicization of diplomatic issues by domestic political circles and the media has influenced actual diplomatic policies, to provide an opportunity for members of the National Assembly, experts from various fields, and representatives from the younger generation to come together to diagnose the causes of conflicts among South Korea, China, and Japan, and explore ways to build future-oriented relationships.

2023.10.05

News Release

The National Assembly Futures Institute hosted a global roundtable on “The Role of the National Assembly Leading ...
The National Assembly Futures Institute hosted a global roundtable on “The Role of the National Assembly Leading Green Transition.” - A venue for understanding the EU's green transition policy and technological developments, and discussions of future collaboration directions between South Korea and the EU. - The National Assembly Futures Institute (President: Kim Hyeon Kon) will host a global roundtable as part of its parliamentary diplomacy research under the theme of “The Role of the National Assembly Leading Green Transition: Focused on Science and Technology Cooperation between South Korea and the EU.” The event will take place on September 5th at 2:00 PM at the National Assembly Library's National Strategy Information Center. The purpose of this event is to share insights into the policy changes and technological cooperation needs of the EU, which is leading the green transition, and to discuss the direction of collaboration with the Korean legislature. The event will be conducted in English, with simultaneous English-Korean interpretation provided. President Kim Hyeon Kon will deliver the opening remarks, and congratulatory remarks will be given by Representative Lee Sangmin of the Democratic Party of Korea and Leader Kim Gihyeon of the People Power Party, Chairs of the Korea-EU Parliamentary Diplomacy Forum. The presentation will focus on “Green Transition Future Agendas and Technological Development.” Jorg Weberndorfer, Minister Counsellor of the Delegation of the EU to South Korea, will discuss the current status and future agendas of the EU’s green transition and green technological development policies. Kim Eun-ah, Head of the Innovation Growth Group at the National Assembly Futures Institute, will present on Korea's policy status and future agendas. The panel discussion, titled “The Role of Legislatures in Facilitating Green Transition through Korea-EU Technological Cooperation,” will feature presentations from individual embassy representatives of France (Jean-Claude Masy), Denmark (Jacob Navarro Rasmussen), and the Netherlands (Peter Wijlhuizen). They will share recent policy trends and technological cooperation needs for each country. Following this, Korean panelists (Han JeongHun, Professor at Seoul National University Graduate School of International Studies, and Cha Jungmi, Director of Center for International Strategies at the National Assembly Futures Institute) will discuss the role of legislatures. President Kim Hyeon Kon emphasized, “Through this event, we expect a diverse exchange of ideas regarding understanding of the EU’s green transition policies, technological development, and the future direction of Korea-EU cooperation.”

2023.08.31

News Release

The 7th National Debate on “Local Extinction Crisis” was Successfuly Held
The 7th National Debate on “Local Extinction Crisis” was Successfuly Held - Kim Jin Pyo, Speaker of the National Assembly, stated, “The local crisis is a national crisis, and the National Assembly and central and local governments should explore alternatives together."- - Presented five major strategies for the local era, including decentralization, education reform, innovative growth, specialized development, and social welfare. - - Members of the National Assembly, the Minister of the Interior and Safety, governors, scholars, journalists should work together to come up with alternatives.- On August 30, at 9:00 AM, the Republic of Korea’s National Assembly, under the leadership of Speaker Kim Jin Pyo, successfully held the 7th National Debate at the 1st meeting room of the Member’s Office Building under the theme of “Discussing the Local Crisis and the Role of the National Assembly” In his opening remarks, Speaker Kim Jin Pyo stated, “The local crisis should be recognized as a national crisis, and the National Assembly, central government, and local governments should work together to find alternatives.” He also emphasized the need to “make efforts for graduates of local universities to find good jobs in local areas and overhaul policies to attract foreign students and support their settlement.” In his congratulatory remarks, Kim Kyoheung, Chairperson of the National Assembly’s Public Administration and Security Committee, said, “Low birth rates are a problem for the entire Republic of Korea, but population migration to the capital region has a fatal impact on local areas.” “Local areas should become places of hope where young people can achieve personal success,” he added. Lee Sang-min, Minister of the Interior and Safety, stated, “We need to move away from centralized policies and transition to a system where local governments take a leading role, with the central government supporting them.” He added, “I will strive to realize an era where every part of South Korea is a good place to live.” Woo Dong-gi, Chairperson of the Local Era Committee, delivered a keynote speech on the theme of “Vision and Strategy for the Local Era.” He emphasized five key strategies for the local era: (1) Substantial decentralization to enhance autonomy; (2) Audacious education reform to nurture talent; (3) Innovative growth to increase employment; (4) Specialized development led by regions; and (5) Tailored living welfare to improve the quality of life. Also, he proposed five key challenges for the local era: (1) Establishing a decentralized national governance system; (2) Promoting industrial activity and investment in local areas; (3) Innovating education and revitalizing local universities; (4) Relocating public institutions in the capital region to local areas; and (5) Promoting local innovation based on intelligence. During the discussion session moderated by Kim Young-mi, President of the Korean Association for Policy Studies and Professor at Sangmyung University, Lee Cheol-woo, President of the Governors Association of the Republic of Korea and Governor of Gyeongsangbuk-do, diagnosed that the local era cannot be realized within the framework of the central government. He added that to secure autonomy for local areas, the National Assembly has to minimize regulations through legislation, and to create a true local era, bureaucratic authoritarianism in the central government must be overcome. Kim Yeong-rok, Governor of Jeollanam-do, called for a bold and innovative transfer of authority from the central government to local governments, suggesting that the central government should only handle tasks that local governments cannot and transfer the rest to local governments. He proposed the relocation of large corporations and public institutions to local regions, the expansion of autonomy for local governments when establishing comprehensive plans for the local era, and the creation of a deputy prime minister-level position representing and executing the interests of local governments. Song Jaeho, Co-Chairperson of the National Assembly’s Balanced Regional Development Forum, emphasized the need to differentiate tasks that the central government, cities and provinces, and cities, counties, and districts should perform and redefine their roles. He called for the swift relocation of the National Assembly to Sejong City to address administrative inefficiency issues and recommended restructuring local administrative efficiency through the conversion of educational facilities, such as kindergartens and primary, middle, and high schools, in the regions. Park Woo-ryang, Chairperson of the Korea Local Governments Alliance for Sustainable Development and Governor of Sinan-gun, stressed the importance of minimizing regulations when enacting or amending related laws, suggesting that autonomy should be granted to cities and provinces, and cities, counties, and districts through ordinances. He also emphasized the need for an appropriate distribution of authority between cities and provinces and cities, counties, and districts. Ma Kang-rae, Professor at Chung-Ang University, suggested considering the social costs of imbalanced development. He emphasized the need for strategies such as urban strategies to address the concentration in the metropolitan area, a 'two-track' strategy for small and medium-sized cities and rural areas, and strategies to promote vitality in rural areas through the return of baby boomers to their hometowns. Huh Won-soon, a head editorial writer at the Korea Economic Daily, mentioned that the relocation of companies to local areas could be more effective in reducing individual income tax for employees than corporate tax reductions. To activate the local population, he proposed the idea of a “1.5 resident registration system” where people could live in other regions on weekends. The discussion was attended by Kim Young Joo, Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, Kim Kyoheung, Chairperson of the National Assembly’s Public Administration and Security Committee, and National Assembly members Kwon Insook, Kim Hyungdong, Song Jaeho, Yang Jungsuk, Lee Manhee, and Lee Inseon. From the National Assembly agencies, participants included Lee Kwang-jae, Secretary-General of the National Assembly, Kwon Young-jin, Deputy Legislative Director of the National Assembly, Park Jangho, Deputy Secretary-General of the National Assembly, Lee Myung Woo, Chief Librarian of the National Assembly Library, Cho Euysup, Chief of National Assembly Budget Office, Park Sang-Chul, Chief of the National Assembly Research Service, and Kim Hyeon Kon, President of the National Assembly Futures Institute. The National Debate, organized and hosted by the National Assembly Secretariat and National Assembly Futures Institute, was broadcast live on the National Assembly TV and its YouTube channel, and the debate materials are available on the National Assembly Futures Institute website.

2023.08.30

News Release

The National Assembly Futures Institute held a discussion on future issues with a delegation from the Swedish ...
The National Assembly Futures Institute held a discussion on future issues with a delegation from the Swedish Parliament’s Industry and Trade Committee - Discussion on the future of the international order and the role of East Asia, including China. - On August 28th, the National Assembly Futures Institute, under the leadership of President Kim Hyeon Kon, held a discussion on future issues with the delegation from the Industry and Trade Committee of the Swedish Parliament at the National Assembly Library’s National Strategy Information Center. The discussion, initiated with greetings from President Kim Hyeon Kon and Tobias Andersson, Chairperson of the Industry and Trade Committee, proceeded with a presentation by Cha Jungmi, Director of Center for International Strategies at the National Assembly Futures Institute, followed by a question-and-answer session and discussions. Director Cha introduced the research results on “The Future of the World Order in 2050” and “The Future of Technological Competition between the United States and China.” During the discussion, members of the Industry and Trade Committee inquired about the preferred future for 2050 and South Korea’s de-risking strategy. The research team from the Futures Institute expressed interest in Sweden’s competition strategies on technological hegemony and the security policies of the European Union. Panelists agreed that East Asian variables, including China, would play a crucial role in shaping the future of the international order, including Europe. The delegation, consisting of 10 members, including Chairperson Tobias Andersson, visited South Korea to examine the country’s industrial situation. Following their first official schedule, visiting the National Assembly’s Trade, Industry, Energy, SMEs, and Startups Committee, the delegation had a discussion session with the National Assembly Futures Institute on major future issues. In addition to the delegation from the Swedish Parliament’s Industry and Trade Committee, Daniel Wolvén, the Swedish Ambassador to Korea, also attended the discussion. Following the discussion, the Swedish Parliament and the National Assembly Futures Institute agreed to continue mutual cooperation on future issues.

2023.08.28

News Release

The 6th National Debate on “Ventures and Startups” was Successfuly Held
The 6th National Debate on “Ventures and Startups” was Successfuly Held - Kim Jin Pyo, Speaker of the National Assembly, stated, “Comprehensive innovation of financial institutions into technology investment finance is needed, along with an increase in specialized technical personnel.”- - Lee Young, Minister of SMEs and Startups, stated, “A policy paradigm shift from existing venture and startup fostering strategies is needed.”- - Choi Hang-jip, Head of the Startup Alliance, stated, “Need to make the Venture Business Act permanent, eliminate venture capital regulations, and improve online platform and data regulations.”- On July 19, at 9:30 AM, the Republic of Korea’s National Assembly, under the leadership of Speaker Kim Jin Pyo, successfully held the 6th National Debate at the main meeting room of the Member’s Office Building under the theme of “Promotion of Ventures and Startups: Legislative and Policy Agendas” In his opening speech, Speaker Kim Jin Pyo said that “the venture and startup ecosystem must undergo a complete transformation for South Korea to leap as a global leader.” He also highlighted “the need to innovate financial institutions into technology investment finance and to foster technical experts for the activation of M&A.” In her congratulatory remarks, Lee Jaejung, Chairperson of the Trade, Industry, Energy, SMEs, and Startups Committee, pointed out that “the overall understanding of the venture and startup ecosystem still remains poor. The National Assembly, government, and the field must communicate together to increase investment.” Back Hyeryun, Chairperson of the National Policy Committee, said, “Investment policies for ventures and startups need to evolve from quantitative growth to qualitative development. It is time to discuss rational improvements to the domestic policy fund system.” Lee Young, Minister of SMEs and Startups, stated, “A global economy where national borders have become meaningless is emerging due to digital transformation and platform development. We need to reconsider the effectiveness of previous strategies for nurturing ventures and startups, and it is a time that demands a paradigm shift in policies.” In his welcoming address, Lee Kwang-jae, Secretary-General of the National Assembly, mentioned, “As of the end of December 2021, the number of employees in venture companies is 830,000, exceeding the employment of the four major conglomerates by 110,000, with 720,000 employees. The hiring inducement coefficient (10.6) and the employment inducement coefficient (12.9) in the software industry are higher than the overall industry average (employment coefficient 8.5, job creation coefficient 12.5). Following industrialization and democratization, South Korea, has experienced stagnation, but we should become a startup nation in the future.” In his presentation, Choi Hang-jip, Head of the Startup Alliance, stated, “We need to make the Venture Business Act permanent and solve venture capital regulations that are divided into startup investment companies and new technology business finance companies.” He also highlighted “the need for careful consideration of online platform regulations and regulatory improvements for effective data utilization.” During the discussion session moderated by Cho Junhee, Chairman of the Korea Software Industry Association, Kim Byungwook, a member of the National Assembly and participating member of the National Assembly Unicorn Farm, emphasized the need “to create numerous successful models of regional-based startups through collaboration among local businesses, universities, local governments, and the central government.” Chung Ilyoung, a member of the National Assembly and participating member of the National Assembly New Growth Industry Forum, stated, “There is a need to expand the investment budget for the fund of funds to increase the inflow of private funds within the venture and startup ecosystem.” Park Yong-soon, Director General for Startup Policy at the Ministry of SMEs and Startups, highlighted, “Investment effects can occur when a network of collaboration between manpower training and various innovation entities is established.” He also emphasized plans “to expand support to regions with the potential for self-sustaining venture ecosystems, create regional innovation clusters, and revise regulations to align with globalization, including attracting foreign talent and supporting overseas corporations.” Lee Hyung-joo, Director of the Financial Policy Bureau at the Financial Services Commission, stated, “By improving regulations related to venture capital, we will strive to enhance the capital supply function through the market, expand the scale of policy finance, secure qualitative transformation, and establish a venture and startup capital market that investors can trust.” Sung Sang-yeop, President of the Korea enture Business Association, emphasized, “We need innovative ideas, such as introducing a ‘collective investment scheme’ as another innovative system that can revitalize ventures.” He also highlighted, “Innovation in university regulations for nurturing venture and startup talent and various institutional arrangements for attracting foreign talent are necessary.” Ryu Kyung-jae, Director of Policy at the Korea Startup Forum, said, “We need to urgently overhaul outdated regulations and support startups’ innovation so that they can grow into global companies.” He also exphasized that “we need to promote private-led self-regulation for online platform regulations.” Lim Kyung-eop, a reporter at Chosun Ilbo, said, “As challenges emerge with the expiration of the regulatory sandbox validity period, there is a need to promote swift regulatory improvements through strengthening the function of regulatory law revision.” Leading up to this debate, during a meeting convened by the Speaker of the National Assembly on May 10th, most participants from the venture and startup industry unanimously emphasized the need for regulatory reforms and expanded support to enhance the vitality of the venture and startup ecosystem. They called for legislative efforts at the parliamentary level to achieve these goals. Based on the consensus regarding the proposals from the meeting, the National Assembly has formulated a total of 25 follow-up measures encompassing legislative actions, budget considerations, regulatory easing, and administrative measures, aiming to bring about changes in the field. Parliament-affiliated institutions have established a collaborative research system for fostering innovative growth and promoting ventures and startups. Based on this, legislative matters were derived, including the enforcement of the Act On Special Measures For The Promotion Of Venture Businesses on a regular basis and regulatory improvements related to venture capital. Meanwhile, regarding the theme of this debate, the National Assembly held an “Idea Contest for Fostering Ventures and Startups” from June 23 to July 13, targeting the general public. A total of 1,153 individuals participated in the event. When categorizing the submitted ideas by type, 33% focused on “expanding funding and support for new challenges,” 25% on “support for global market entry,” 21% on “regulatory innovation to foster new technologies,” 11% on “cultivating a culture supporting ventures and startups,” and 10% on “building a mutually collaborative startup ecosystem.” The National Assembly plans to drive subsequent legislative efforts for the activation of ventures and startups, taking into account the discussions and ideas presented in today’s debate, as well as the outcomes of the idea contest. In particular, the National Assembly is actively considering key legislative measures to improve regulations related to new technology business finance companies. This is based on the recognition that, above all, there is a need to move away from the existing policy-focused financial support system and explore legislative and policy alternatives to attract private venture capital into ventures and startups. The National Debate, organized and hosted by the National Assembly Secretariat and National Assembly Futures Institute, was broadcast live on the National Assembly TV and its YouTube channel, and the debate materials are available on the National Assembly Futures Institute website. During the national debate, which is designed by the National Assembly to create an opportunity to lead the national agenda, National Assembly’s Special Committees, National Assembly’s affiliated agencies, and other relevant institutions will jointly study and discuss national pending issues that can shape the future of the Republic of Korea. Following the 6th National Debate, subsequent debates are scheduled to be held on topics such as the local extinction.

2023.07.19
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Research Report

(22-12 Research Report) The Future of the World Order in 2050 : Probable vs. Preferred
P.I : Cha Jung-mi

The end of the Cold War in 1990s brought about the era of US-led liberal international order with its robust economic integration and globalization. However, the great power politics and geopolitical tensions have been revived and intensified three decades after the Cold War. In the environment of intensifying the great power competition between the US and China, the war in Ukraine has dramatically undermined the post-Cold War order which was already being derailed away from the globalizing and liberal political economic trends. The rise of geopolitical tension and dramatic decline of globalization have brought about various discussions on where the post-Cold War era order is heading. The US national security strategy of 2022 declared that the post-Cold War era is definitively over. Then what will be next the international order in the post-post-Cold War era? The Center for International Strategies of NAFI (National Assembly Futures Institute of ROK) has been studying the various issues of international affairs in collaboration with global scholars. The theme of this 2022 global collaborative research is ‘The Future of the World Order in 2050: Probable vs. Preferred*.’ With intensifying great power rivalry and war in Ukraine, the gap between the probable future and the preferred future seems to be getting bigger. Therefore, this global collaborative research discussing and forecasting what is the most likely and what is the most preferable future for the coming international order is very important and a timely issue while we are facing with the numerous changes in the international power structure and global system. We invited 13 scholars from different countries and regions to share and discuss their views on the future of world and region. The 12 countries and regions selected are South Korea, US, China, Japan, India, Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. The main issues which the authors of this research address are the three following; the future of US and China competition, the future of power structure (bipolar vs. multipolar) and the future of their own states and regions. The final task all the authors describe is to offer suggestions for making the future international order more preferable. With these four questions, each author presents their views and strategies on probable future and preferred future. The 13 scholars from 12 countries presents their own views on the issues. This research compiles their views and presents some key takeaways from their views. The art of prediction is usually deeply linked to accuracy, but the predictions of this research do not focus on accuracy but on understanding the diverse views on the probable and preferred future of international order they perceive. Based on the mutual and comprehensive understandings on their different views, we want to take some important suggestions for a better future and suggest some solutions to enhance global cooperation for building a better future. This study includes the diverse ambitions and preferences which global states have. We believe that the future will be shaped by a confluence of different forces. The most important point is that we need to figure out how to resolve conflict and make cooperation possible even when we have different views and ways to imagine the future of international order. Even though this report’s title references the future of the international order, this report does not aim to predict the future accurately, but instead shares the diverse views of possible futures and preferred futures and provides some meaningful implications for the studies and policies regarding the future of the international order. The pieces which the 13 scholars from different countries around the world contributed for this research reflect their personal perspectives on the future of world order. This report can be regarded as an academic discussion of global scholars on the probable and preferred futures of the world order and the regions in order to share diverse views and navigate the major cognitive trends on that what is the most likely future and what is the most preferable future. We hope this study provides a good starting point to have open and constructive discussions on how to narrow the gap between the probable future and the preferred future for all. * This report does not reflect the views of any governments and organizations which the authors belong to. All of content included here are personal opinions. Indeed, the 14 authors of this report do not totally agree on each state’s and region’s perspectives on the future of world order described in this report. This report’s intention is to show the diverse and different attitudes and perspectives on the changes of the current international order between the scholars from all over the world and to understand the complicated picture of future world order each scholar has and to navigate the most preferable future of international order from the diverse discussions. By sharing the diverse views on the probable and preferred future of international order and discussing the way to cooperate for building the preferable future, we hope we can make the future world head in a more preferable direction.

2022-12-31
(22-01 Research Report) A Forecasting Research on the Futures of Korea 2050
P.I : Park Seong-won

The Future of Korea is a research initiative undertaken by the National Assembly Futures Institute, which aims to forecast the future of 2050, identify the goals that our society needs to achieve, and present various pathways to reach them. In 2021, the National Assembly Futures Institute proposed a national vision of “Going beyond a growth society to a mature society.” This vision defines a mature society as one that avoids state-led growth in favor of individual-led growth, moves beyond centralized governance to strengthen autonomous governance of local communities, and prioritizes the needs of socially underprivileged and marginalized groups above all else. To forecast the future in collaboration with the public and identify ways to realize this vision of a mature society, the National Assembly Futures Institute forecasts the future in six areas: social relations, residential environment, education, economy, politics, and international relations. The Institute develops mid- to long-term strategies and policies for each field and presents common tasks that combine top-priority policies and fields. During this process, 52 internal and external experts analyzed trends to date, forecasted the long-term future through forecast modeling, and participated in discussions to present strategies and policies necessary for our society based on the forecast results. The following are the preferred futures presented for each of the six areas: “A society of free and non-isolated individuals” in the field of social relations, “A safe and healthy life wherever you live” in the residential environment, “Expanding opportunities to rise up the social ladder anywhere” in the field of education, “A harmony between people, mother nature, and technology” in the field of economy, “Decentralized governance for the coexistence and development of diverse communities” in the field of politics, and “Smart Power Korea based on competence and trust” and “Coexistence mutually recognized by the two Koreas” in the field of international relations. While this future may be considered utopian compared to the present reality, the effort to move step by step toward this goal is crucial. By sharing and spreading the idea of incremental progress, the future gradually becomes a tangible reality. It is hoped that the results of this study will contribute to presenting a small but practical hope to our society.

2022-12-31
(22-02 Research Report) Operation of the National Mid- to Long-term Agenda Committee and Strategy for Future Agenda Institutionalization
P.I : Park Sang-hoon

In the year 2021, the National Assembly established and implemented the National Mid-to-Long-term Agenda Committee, which operates under the direct oversight of the National Assembly Speaker. This represents a significant opportunity for the National Assembly to assume a proactive role in the planning and execution of state affairs, as well as identifying and addressing mid-to-long-term tasks at the national level. One notable outcome of the committee's efforts is the publication of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from a Growing Society to a Mature Society,” which aims to address structural and persistent societal issues in Korea by examining the past, present, and future of the country. The concept of a mature society is posited as a national value, however, it has been noted that there may be limitations in effectively communicating the meaning of such a society due to the diversity of interpretations associated with the term “maturity.” This may further complicate the process of formulating policies aimed at realizing a mature society. This study delves into the concept of a mature society by examining various policies and theories on growth. The study presents various state administration philosophies, such as shared growth, balanced development, and green growth, that were introduced when the new government was launched. Additionally, the study examines the perspectives of prominent political philosophers, such as Rawls, Sen, Nussbaum, Douglas Lummis, Ivan Illich, and Gilbert Liszt, on growth and competence. Based on these perspectives, the study constructs a theoretical foundation for a mature society. This theoretical foundation is then used to conduct a comparative analysis of the policies of major political parties in the presidential election, specifically focusing on the 120 national tasks of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration and how they align with the conception of a mature society. The study also maps the 120 national tasks to the 4 key goals and 12 agendas presented in the Future Vision 2037 report, which are identified as elements of the conception of a mature society: fairness and justice, equality in relationships, rights of nature, growth, and transformation. Through this analysis, the study aims to emphasize the importance of a balanced pursuit of values, competence, individual free will, and the guarantee of social function choice in the realization of a mature society, by highlighting common points and differences. The key agendas that were identified underwent a collaborative examination with esteemed professionals within the relevant domain. While a significant portion of the agendas had a substantial number of institutional deliberation, facilitating the understanding of associated concerns, there were limitations in determining a strategic course of action for specific regulatory frameworks and institutionalization. Further research is deemed necessary to address these areas and supplement the current findings. The agendas of societal progress often entail a plethora of conflicting interests and contentious debates. In order to actualize the aspiration of a fully developed society, it is imperative that politics plays a crucial role in adeptly navigating these conflicts and fostering a consensus toward a shared vision of the future. In this study, we shall delve into the rationale behind why the National Assembly should assume such a responsibility, utilizing various political theories as a lens of analysis. Furthermore, we propose the creation of a 'Future Governance Select Committee' which aims to bring the aforementioned vision to fruition. Through this committee, the National Assembly will be able to formulate and implement long-term strategic plans and policies at a national level, representing a departure from its traditional role.

2022-12-31
(22-03 Research Report) The Development of Learning Support Indicators for Improving Innovation Capabilities
P.I : Sung Moon-ju

The heightened emphasis on innovation, driven by global competitiveness, the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and governmental strategies centered on innovative growth, has elicited a growing interest in the development of diagnostic indicators that can assess the provision of learning support for employees and college students. This study endeavors to create such indicators, with a focus on the critical role of learning in enhancing individual innovation capabilities, and to continuously monitor governmental policies aimed at improving learning support. This study followed a step-by-step approach, proceeding in a cyclical and non-linear manner. Initially, to conceptualize learning that can enhance individuals' innovation capabilities, modes of learning that foster such capabilities were identified through the examination of expert consultation outcomes and a thorough review of relevant literature. This study considers learning that encourages experimentation through trial-and-error methods as being paramount in fostering individuals' innovation capabilities. This study posits that a focus on informal learning, self-directed learning, experiential learning, learning through mistakes, and collaborative learning is crucial in enhancing the innovation capabilities of both employees and college students. Following this, this study conducted a comprehensive review of the literature to identify the key determinants of innovation capability and developed a conceptual framework for learning support. It differentiated the factors affecting learning for innovation into personal characteristics, such as resilience, and environmental elements, such as a culture that embraces learning through failure and experimentation. The researchers utilized a combination of literature review and brainstorming to arrive at a set of learning enablers and disablers that impact the development of innovation capabilities. The objective of this study was to design learning support indicators and a classification system. The indicators were derived from the results of research meetings and a review of prior studies, with the aim of aligning them with statistical data and indicators collected by government agencies, research institutes, and public organizations. The study developed a framework that categorizes indicators into environmental and personal factors, in accordance with the literature review for this study and based on Amabile's (1988) componential model of organizational innovation. The environmental dimension was further divided into system and culture sub-dimensions, while the personal dimension was split into cognitive and non-cognitive competencies. The study synthesized influencing factors from relevant theories, models, and previous studies and utilized it as a guide in creating the learning support components and indicators. The study concluded with the administration of two Delphi surveys. These surveys sought to validate learning support indicators, framework, and learning modes aimed at enhancing innovation capabilities. To this end, 20 experts participated in the validation process. The initial Delphi survey was based on a draft of the learning support indicators, which were designed for both employees and college students. Based on the feedback received from the first survey, the research team made revisions to the learning modes, indicator classification system, and the names and definitions of the indicators. Subsequently, a second Delphi survey was conducted, utilizing the revised learning support indicators. The results of this survey were analyzed and used to finalize the learning modes, learning support indicators, and the classification system. The final version of the indicators comprised a total of 25 indicators, with separate sets for employees and college students.

2022-12-31
(22-04 Research Report) Research on Strategic Tasks for Transition to a Creative Learning Society to Accelerate the Transformation of the Innovation Paradigm
P.I : Yeo Yeong-jun

Korea achieved rapid economic growth by effectively learning and adopting advanced technologies and knowledge. However, the limitations of the catch-up growth model are becoming more apparent as the country aims to transition to an innovative economy. To achieve this goal, it is crucial that individuals across different sectors engage in a variety of learning activities, instead of relying solely on specific industries or companies. Additionally, it is important to expand the positive effects of learning to support the adaptability of the workforce. Despite this need, there are concerns that current innovation policy in Korea does not sufficiently support the development of a culture of self-directed learning and lifelong learning, which is necessary for the reinforcement of adaptability through the design of career plans based on individual self-learning and participation in learning activities throughout the life cycle. With this context in mind, the current study aims to analyze the main institutional limitations and policy issues present within Korea's innovation system, specifically with regards to fostering diverse creative learning and building a learning society. Furthermore, this study aims to propose concrete policy solutions to address these issues and support the transition to a society where creative learning is embraced. To achieve this, the study intends to conduct a comprehensive analysis of policy alternatives and leverage points within various institutions, including Technical and Vocational Education, Workplace-based Learning, Higher Education Institutions, Middle-aged People, Local Communities, and others, from a systemic perspective. Through these efforts, the study aims to identify key policy tasks and long-term visions to support the successful transition of the innovation system, with the ultimate goal of providing guidance for creating a national, forward-looking innovation strategy.

2022-12-31
(22-05 Research Report) Future of the youth, youth in the future
P.I : Lee Sang-jic

This study endeavors to critically analyze the youth problem in Korea by investigating the social conditions that influence their lives and thoughts. Theresearch focuses the interplay between the societal structures that regulatethe lives of young people and the roles and perceptions that the youth hold inthe society in order to gain a comprehensive understanding of the youthexperience in Korea. This study is an attempt to understand the nature of the current situationsurrounding the youth of Korea from a historical and comparative perspective. We tried to identify the social conditions that define the lives oftoday’s youth in Korea, as well as the characteristics of their lives. In other words, we attempted to examine the structure and system that regulate the life of young people on one hand and the roles and perceptions of young people on the other hand. Chapter 1 places the context in which the current situation of young people emerged in the context of the formation and change of the modern life course. Chapter 2 traces how the concept of youth was formed and changed in Korea through the analysis of newspaper articles. Chapter 3 captures the structure of discourse on young people since the 2000s. In Korean society, the concept of youth has changed from a ‘social’ phenomenon to a ‘cultural’ phenomenon, to an ‘economic’ phenomenon. Chapter 4 checks how general changes in the modern life course are revealed in the context of Korea. The characteristics of Korea are also confirmed in a comparative study on the structure of youth employment (chapter 5). Korea is an example of ‘jobless growth’. This transitional context seems to be reflected in the role structure and perception structure of young people. Chapter 6 compares the roles and thoughts of young people in 7 countries during the transition to adulthood. Chapter 7 historically examines the flow of the young population movement. Although the total population movement decreased, the movement of young people from the region to the metropolitan area increased. In Chapters 8 and 9, aspects of subjective perception, such as the perception of inequality and happiness among young people, were reviewed. Chapter 10 reviews policy on young people. Many of the policies focus on employment. The case analysis in Chapter 11 shows that policies need to consider the wider context. The implications of the study indicate that there is a need to critically re-evaluate the way in which Korean society perceives and understands youth. Traditionally, the societal focus on youth has been centered on the notions of ‘preparing young people for employment and marriage’, which is based on the assumptions of those who view these events as natural life experiences. This perspective is instrumental in nature and may not be adequate in light of the current societal changes. The implication of this recognition is that adolescence should no longer be viewed as a transitional stage, an immature stage, but rather as a life stage that is worthy of recognition in its own right. This shift in perspective calls for a move away from the notion of “doing something for young people” and instead, providing them with channels and opportunities for participating, voicing and decision-making.

2022-12-31
(22-06 Research Report) The Welfare System in the Age of Low Growth without Employment and the Advent of a Super-Aged Society
P.I : Lee Chae-jeong

Now is the time to discuss a sustainable welfare system an economy in continued low growth without increased employment that meets the needs of an emerging super-aged society. This study examines how the welfare system is changing through the lens of international comparison, and examines the case of Korea specifically, to derive policy implications for the design of a welfare system that can flexibly respond to an era of low growth without employment and a society that is super-aged. From 1990 until recently, changes in the welfare system have been analyzed using country-specific statistics provided by the OECD. As a result, OECD countries are seeking changes in their methods of financing and distributing social expenditures in response to the deterioration of government fiscal soundness and the increasing demand for social benefits. OECD member countries have shown a tendency to decrease the share of social security contributions from tax sources. The proportion of social expenditures for cash benefits for the elderly has increased, as has the share of in-kind policy support for families. The United Kingdom, France, and Finland were examined to investigate changes in the welfare system by type of welfare state. In the UK, the average share of social security contributions has been maintained at 20–30%, while the share of personal income tax, value added tax, and capital gains tax has increased. Finland’s welfare resources consist of national and local taxes, employment funds, and pension contributions. In France, social security contributions have gradually decreased, and the share of general social contributions has gradually increased. As low growth without employment has continued, the French government has recognized the limitations of the existing social insurance method and has sought a diversification of tax sources. This study examined the major policy areas of Korean society: the labor market, income security, health care, and housing. Amid low growth without employment, the labor market needs income security and employment promotion policies, and it is necessary to improve the combination of active labor market policies by considering the effect on employment rate by policy type. It is necessary to continuously invest resources into income security due to the increase in the number of recipients of such policies brought on by a super-aging society. In the health and medical fields, it is necessary to reorganize the health care system in consideration of demographic changes due to low birth rates and an aging population, the emergence of new infectious diseases, and the sustainability of the health insurance system. Regarding housing policy, it is necessary to ensure a continuous supply of public rental housing, expand housing benefits, support suitable housing options for various income and asset levels, and utilize and improve old and vacant houses. Korea’s existing welfare policy was not composed of one package; recent attempts to expand the social safety net have also been carried out by sector, and efforts for systemic transformation are sound. Systemic transition beyond sectoral policies is possible through national consensus and social deliberation on what kind of welfare state Korea will pursue beyond an analysis of the current system.

2022-12-31
(22-07 Research Report) Conflict issues and legislative measures in the coal phase-out process
P.I : Jeong Hoon

The increasing frequency of extreme climate events globally serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for carbon neutrality. This necessitates a transition away from fossil fuels, which have been the primary driver of human progress, towards more sustainable energy sources. Of particular importance is the phasing out of coal-fired power generation, which is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Developed nations are at the forefront of this effort, taking steps to phase out coal-fired power plants in order to achieve carbon neutrality. Despite the acknowledged environmental drawbacks, coal-fired power plants have played a significant role in catalyzing the modernization, industrialization, and economic growth of nations globally since the advent of the Industrial Revolution. As nations look to phase-out coal usage, it is anticipated that various challenges and expenses will arise, including the decline of associated industries, loss of employment for workers, and ramifications on local economies. To address these social issues, developed nations and international entities are prioritizing a “just transition” as a means of mitigating these challenges. Korea has pledged to the international community to undertake a comprehensive coal phase-out by 2050 at the COP26 summit in 2021. However, in order to effectively implement such a plan, it will be crucial to establish practical policies and regulations that take into account the significant dependence of the country on coal-fired energy, as well as the potential social and economic consequences of transitioning away from this energy source. In particular, given that a majority of the nation's 57 power plants are concentrated in a few key regions, it is likely that the negative impacts of plant closures will disproportionately affect certain communities, including workers and local residents. Furthermore, the potential for stranded assets and legal disputes arising from the construction of new coal power plants must also be considered and addressed through a comprehensive and inclusive societal dialogue. Without sufficiently addressing these issues, the pursuit of a carbon-neutral policy and coal phase-out may become hindered, potentially leading to increased societal conflicts and polarization. The National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) conducted a comprehensive examination of the potential social ramifications and conflicts that may arise during the domestic coal phase-out process. Through the analysis of international case studies and consultation with key stakeholders, particularly those who may be impacted and disadvantaged by the closure of coal-fired power plants, NAFI sought to proactively identify and propose policy and legislative measures aimed at mitigating these conflicts and ensuring a just transition.

2022-12-31
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Brief Report

[International Strategic Foresight] Mid- to Long-term Future Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: Unified Governance on the Korean Peninsula (No. 13)
P.I : Kim Tae-kyung

The mid- to long-term future of peace and shared prosperity on the Korean Peninsula fundamentally depends on the question of whether it is possible to establish a new unit for a unified Korean Peninsula that transcends the multilayered rifts and division between the two Koreas. The report defined “collective governance,” which facilitates sustainable peacebuilding on a unified Korean Peninsula, as a concept that embraces the realization of collective institutionalization, as well as the civil society as a “community of people.” The report proposed a differentiated methodology for integration that emerged from the long-term and gradual integration process of the European Union while presenting the collective governance of the Korean Peninsula as a mid- to long-term future strategy.

2022-12-19
[National Future Strategic Insight] Improvement Directions of University Education for Enhancing Innovative Capabilities of Talented People: Learning Support and the Development of Diagnostic Indicato
P.I : Sung Moon-ju

Changes in university education are required to strengthen innovation capabilities for the sustainable development of the nation economy through innovation in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Also, policy discussions and support for effective learning support are needed to enhance the innovative capabilities of university students who are in the stage of preparing for entry into the labor market. However, there are relatively less policy discussions on changes in teaching method in specific educational settings compared to discussions on changing the content and curriculum of university education. The study aims to explore directions and strategies for enhancing the effectiveness of learning support in relation to the changing direction of university education to strengthen the innovation capabilities of talented people. Thus, it presented the “diagnostic indicator for learning support to enhance innovative capabilities of university students” developed based on learning paradigms, learning types, and learning support strategies that should be emphasized in the new environment, as well as implications and ways of utilization.

2022-12-12
[Futures Brief] The Rise of Emerging Citizens and the Social Landscape: Future Dialogues with Citizens from Six Regions (No.9)
P.I : Park Seong-won

In this study, emerging citizens who experience deepening social problems such as climate crisis, South-North conflict, unbalanced development, residential insecurity, family dissolution, technological disparity, and environmental destruction were discovered, and we engaged in future dialogues with them. Emerging citizens pointed out several social issues, including government policies that drive citizens away if they fail to quickly achieve their dreams, policies that invest in external appearances and neglect accumulation of cultural assets, ongoing conflict between economic growth and environmental preservation and the lack of solutions, a culture that discriminates against minorities and vulnerable groups when society feels insecure, the dissolution of families and communities along with the weakening of social care, and a government that destroys the future generations and the future environment, and stressed that the government should address these problems to ensure that more citizens do not experience feelings of insecurity and discouragement.

2022-12-05
[National Future Strategic Insight] Where Do Young People Live and Where Do They Move To? (No. 58)
P.I : Min Bo-gyeong

Recent outmigration of young people from rural areas is a major cause of population decline and economic downturn in those areas, particularly the outmigration to metropolitan areas exacerbates regional imbalance. This study seeks to find answers to where and why young people are moving and to draw political implications for improving the quality of youths’ lives and establish future strategies for the areas. Looking at the changes in interregional population migration patterns, there is an overall decrease in the scale of interregional migration. However, youth population migration is relatively active, with a tendency towards moving to the metropolitan areas. Since the main reasons for youth migration are “employment” and “housing,” this study suggests the need for regional strategies targeting the youth, including the creation of decent job opportunities and housing support policies in line with their preferences.

2022-11-28
[National Future Strategic Insight] Implications of a Just Transition Policy through Opinions from Key Stakeholders over Coal Phase-out Conflict: Focus on Workers and Local Residents (No. 57)
P.I : Jeong Hoon

This study aimed to draw implications for a just transition policy by collecting opinions of workers and local residents, who are key stakeholders involved in the major conflict issues related to coal phase-out. The survey participants were selected on a small scale, taking into consideration their understanding of coal phase-out policy and the representativeness of their opinions as stakeholders. The survey questionnaire was designed to inquire about their awareness of the climate crisis and coal phase-out policy, the major conflict issues surrounding coal phase-out, and the direction of the just transition policy. According to the survey results, both the workers and local residents, who are the main victims of coal phase-out policy, showed a high level of awareness regarding the climate crisis and coal phase-out policy. However, opinions differed on conflict issues and the direction of the just transition policy by each stakeholder group according to their positions and situations. Based on these findings, several implications were drawn, including the need for active involvement of the National Assembly in establishing and implementing a just transition policy in relation to coal phase-out, to lay a foundation for achieving carbon neutrality favorably.

2022-11-14
[International Strategic Foresight] Korean Diaspora and Peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula (No. 12)
P.I : Kim Tae-kyung

This report explores the existential position of the Korean diaspora between their home country and host country, as well as the practical implications of the Korean diaspora for peacebuilding in the context of the historical conflicts and enduring division on the Korean Peninsula. The report examined examples of the Korean diaspora’s role in peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula, including the third identity of Koreans in Japan, the peace movement of Korean-American women, and the North and South Korean defector community in the UK. By looking into these cases, the report provided reflections on how to prepare for the integration of people and the structural and cultural transformation that peacebuilding implies in the mid- to long-term.

2022-11-07
[National Future Strategic Insight] Future Policies and Resilient Innovation Strategies in the Post-COVID-19 Era (No. 56)
P.I : Yeo Yeong-jun

In this study, in order to propose mid- to long-term policy tasks for strengthening resilience in the post-COVID-19 era, key patterns of social change unfolding globally after COVID-19 were examined and scenario-based policy tasks were proposed. The study examines the main considerations for future-oriented innovation policies to strengthen the resilience of the national innovation system in response to the extensive impacts brought about by COVID-19. It also identifies the key drivers characterizing the environmental changes in the COVID-19 era and explores various possibilities for environmental changes in the COVDI-19 era based on the their interactions. Additionally, based on the key approaches and analysis results, the study proposes the “3A (Anticipation, Alliancing, and Adaptation)” strategy for transitioning to a resilient innovative system.

2022-10-31
[National Future Strategic Insight] Japan’s Age-limit Retirement Policy: A Comparative Perspective with Korea (No. 55)
P.I : Jung Hae-yoon

This report examines the characteristics and effects of the implementation process of the Japanese age-limit system to reflect on the Korean system. While the legal and institutional aspects may appear similar between the two countries, the processes of policy formation, adjustment, and decision-making differ, leading to variations in outcomes. In Japan, laws and policies serve as inherent and ultimate functions for coordinating social actions, whereas in Korea, they are perceived as external and constraining yet do not function as regulations for actors. The age-limit system is a challenge that our society needs to address, but limiting the discussion to specific legal frameworks can narrow the scope of the issue. The report highlights the need for more comprehensive policy discussions as various possibilities may be excluded and the outcomes may differ from expectations.

2022-10-24
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국회미래연구원 NATIONAL ASSEMBLY FUTURES INSTITUTE

1, Uisadang-daero, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, 07233, Republic of Korea
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