Congressional think tank designing
national future strategies

Future Research

Prediction of Comprehensive Future Scenario of 2050
This research aimed to identify the desirable strategies, response strategies, and evasive strategies in rational terms for various types of future phenomena, including the changes in the demographic structure that features low birth rates and an aging society, changes in the North Korea-South Korea relationship, becoming an advanced country, and changes in global strategies due to multipolarized international order. In particular, as a macroscopic, long-term, and comprehensive research, this research focused on five areas including humans, governance, growth and development, three necessities of life (food, shelter, clothing), and individuals and communities. In terms of detailed research methodology, 24 questions about the future were deduced from the five areas of governance, growth and development, three necessities of life (food, shelter, clothing), individuals and communities, and humans, and an alternative future was identified for each question. In contrast to what is normally done whereby a single research on the future investigates the answer for a single question, this study sets itself apart from other studies in terms of the scale and comprehensiveness of the questions about the future. In addition, it has a different structure regarding the future scenarios in comparison to past research. Generally, in a research on the future, there are multiple possible future scenarios suggested for a single question. However, this study provides a three-structured future scenario, including the scenario about the question on the future, a comprehensive future scenario for each area, and a total comprehensive future scenario. In this research, the analysis on the determinants, scenarios and future policies were approached as standardized information factors. The BAU scenario was set to be the best possible future if the current trend of major policies and environmental variables continue in Korea. As such, the response strategies were suggested to properly respond to the changes in the major environmental variables and policies (system) of the scenario. For the scenario in which an overall decline is envisaged, which is a future that Korea must try to avoid, policies were suggested to alleviate the risks and losses that may come from the major environmental and policy changes in relation to this scenario. For the sustainable growth scenario, desirable policies related to the changes in determinants such as the environmental and political factors were suggested to accomplish the desired future scenario. Lastly, for the transitional scenario, a future scenario that takes exceptional cases into consideration, future changes in the environment, such as the segmentation of political factors in Korea due to the structural changes in the major systems on which the Korean society heavily depends, were discussed. By analyzing the differences with the BAU of each scenario, 10 political agendas were identified for each area. The agendas were then classified into desired, responsive, and evasive strategies and were suggested as strategies to prepare for the future filled with uncertainties. As the strategies also include policies that we should start to work on right away in preparation for 2050, the research suggested political agendas to be implemented by identifying the order of each process.

2019.12.31

Future Research

Research on the Desired Future of Koreans
This research discusses the many possibilities of the future society with the public, and suggests methods and processes to move towards a future society desired by the public. It also explains the reasons for and effects of having the public participate in the process of identifying the directions of mid- to long-term national strategies. Existing studies on the future of the society passively take into account the public’s participation. The studies normally suggested the vision and strategies of the future society based on the opinions from policymakers or expert groups, and asked for the public’s opinions on those issues. However, this research actively includes in the participation of the public in the process of forming the vision and strategies for the future society, and identifies the desired future society of the public and how to make it into reality. The research team first set the three value axes that should be considered when designing a future society, including change and stability, future-oriented and present-oriented, and individual freedom and community and solidarity. With these axes, the research team came up with four types of scenarios on the future society, including the rapidly growing society, stable growth society, sustainable distribution society, and the current distribution society. With these future scenarios, the research team asked the opinions of 502 citizens in Seoul, Daejeon, and Busan regarding these scenarios. There were in-depth discussions for more than five hours to talk about the future society desired by the public. Also, there was a survey on the desired future for experts in various fields to compare their answers to those of the public. In addition, the research team also investigated possible policy projects to realize the desired future. The results showed that 43% of the public participants desired a sustainable distribution society. The major values of the sustainable distribution society include the coexistence of rural and urban areas, active responses to climate change, a symbiotic relationship between conglomerates and SMEs, freedom to move within the labor market, cooperation, and social responsibilities. Sixty-three percent of the expert groups (65 experts) also desired a sustainable distribution society. The experts claimed that the desired future should be more challenge-oriented during these times of rapid scientific technological development, provide a system that minimizes the side effects that come from rapid changes, implement alternative policies to the discourses on growth, and a public demand for high-quality social welfare. Also, 34.9% of the public participants wished to avoid the stable growth society in the future. The stable growth society is characterized by an expansion in the economic and social gap between the urban and rural areas, increasing social problems due to intensified competition, greater global warming issues, more social and cultural conflict from increasing numbers of foreigners in Korea.

2019.12.31

Future Research

A Survey of Adolescents’ Future Desired Values
This research provides a theoretical analytic tool and empirical methodology to predict the changes in the future desired values of Korean adolescents, and to provide the basis for establishing a political roadmap of Korea in the future. By objectively identifying and predicting the current and future desired values of adolescents, who will lead the future, it will be possible to provide a blueprint to design the future of Korea filled with both infinite possibilities for growth and uncertainties. To identify the major value areas and concepts, as well as the empirical research methodology, domestic and international theoretical studies related to value and other existing studies on value were reviewed and analyzed, and there was also qualitative research on experts and students with experiences of future education for adolescents. A survey was also conducted for 554 male and female adolescents aged 15-18 from all over the country, and another for 630 male and female adults aged 19 and over, to compare the future desired values of adolescents and adults. The results showed that adolescents and adults both had a positive outlook on the future, while adolescents placed greater emphasis on the importance of individual values than adults. Adolescents considered material values to be important, but it was found that these values did not directly lead to economic wealth. Adolescents also had a greater sense of openness and acceptance in terms of diversity and social justice. Also, adolescents had a lower sense of duty for the country in comparison to adults, and had greater expectations for the roles of Koreans within the global society, rather than having a sense of national duties. Furthermore, among individual values, adolescents placed the greatest emphasis on the importance of “independence” and “achievement,” and also revealed conservative traits as they tended to conform to the existing order and system. In the survey of Koreans’ Future Desired Values, which will be conducted after this research, it is suggested to expand the areas that were found to be important for adolescents and in which they showed the highest levels of interest, including scientific technology, values as global citizens, community values, and subjective values on satisfaction of life. By regularly investigating the future desired values of adolescents, it will be possible to identify the changes and trends in values regarding the future generation, to secure important evidence to identify and predict the social changes in relation to the present and the future.

2019.12.31

Future Research

[National Future Strategy Insight] One Year with COVID-19: How Did People’s Lives Change? No. 12
Associate Research Fellow Heo Jong-ho investigated the changes that came to the Korean people in terms of “Changes in jobs and income,” “Changes in family relationships,” “Changes in the awareness of value and actions related to infectious disease prevention and control,” and “Changes in health.” The findings identified the damage experienced by the people from COVID-19, especially by the vulnerable groups. It predicted that if the pandemic is to go on, there will be greater socioeconomic inequality. In terms of “Changes in jobs and income,” among the respondents aged 20 and over, 5.5% experienced a change in jobs such as layoffs or closures of business. Among the 5.5%, 55.6% were female and 44.4% were male. Of the total respondents, 19.6% answered that their income decreased, and the amount of decrease of monthly income was KRW 795,000 on average. Although 88.2% of employees (who receive income from an employer) did not experience a decrease in income, 61.2% of those who were self-employed responded that their incomes decreased, and 9.7% of self-employed responded that their monthly incomes decreased by at least KRW one million in average. In terms of “Changes in family relationships,” 14.8% of the respondents said that their family relationships became better after COVID-19. However, for households in Seoul metropolitan area, public assistance recipient households, and one-person households, family relationships became worse rather than becoming better. For “Changes in the awareness of value and actions related to infectious disease prevention and control,” 69% of the respondents agreed that it is necessary to sacrifice some aspects of daily life to prevent the spread of the virus. Among the respondents, 55% agreed that those who were infected with the virus were at fault for being so, and 63.2% agreed that it is necessary to disclose information on the movements of those confirmed to have the virus. The percentages of those living in Seoul metropolitan area who agreed with the three statements were approximately 3%-7% lower than those of those not living in Seoul metropolitan area. For “Changes in health,” 16.6% of the respondents said that they became healthier after COVID-19. It was also noted that the percentage of one-person households who took action to stay healthy was approximately 1%-5% lower than that of other households. The percentage of females who are at high risk of depression was 10% lower than that of males, 19% of the respondents aged 20 and older said that they reduced smoking, whereas 6.9% responded that they smoked even more. Smoking was reduced more for females than for males (Male 18.6% vs. Female 24.2%). Of the respondents, 13.0% answered that they reduced drinking by 1.6 times a week on average. The percentage of males who responded that they reduced drinking was 2.5 times greater than that of females, and 22.0% of those aged 20 and over responded that they reduced drinking. The study was conducted by the research team of the National Assembly Futures Institute last year, and was based on the responses related to COVID-19 in the “Survey of Happiness of the Korean People” conducted on 14,000 males and females aged 15 and over from all around the country. Dr. Heo stated that “at an international level, the numbers suggest that Koreans are relatively less miserable, but the results still pointed to the serious impact from COVID-19 that hit vulnerable groups the hardest. Also, there is concern regarding potential greater socioeconomic inequality,” and advised that “there should be evidence-based policies for not only infectious disease prevention and control, but also regarding socioeconomic inequalities that stem from COVID-19.”

2021.02.16

Future Research

[National Future Strategy Insight] An Investigation into and Future Challenges regarding Education Policies to Expand Psychological and Social Capital, No. 11
[National Future Strategy Insight] An Investigation into and Future Challenges regarding Education Policies to Expand Psychological and Social Capital, No. 11 Associate Research Fellow Sung Moon-ju presented challenges related to education policies to expand “psychological capital,” healthy and positive psychological states of individuals, and “social capital,” intangible capital that comes from the social relationships between people and lead to individual or public benefits in her report. After identifying the current levels of psychological and social capitals of the members of society, it was found that it is necessary to improve the levels of both types of capital. Particularly, levels of resilience, participation and networking, and public trust were especially low, and so it was concluded that these levels must be significantly improved. In terms of the low-income, it was found that the state must actively intervene to improve the levels of psychological and social capitals. The role of university education to expand psychological and social capitals also needed to be strengthened. Based on these findings, the report listed the following challenges in relation to education policies: implementation of various types of evaluation methods and evaluation criteria for elementary and middle school education, and the separation of student evaluation at the classroom level and at the national level; increase of the opportunities for students to participate in developing national elementary and middle school education curricula and decision making processes of schools in terms of the education curriculum; development of a program to improve the level of psychological capital for university students at the university level; increase of the accessibility and the number of programs for adults to improve resilience; and establishment of an education organization that strengthens intangible social learning. Dr. Sung stated that “in order to achieve the national goal of securing national competitiveness and improving the quality of life of the citizens with innovative growth, there must be a greater perspective on capital,” and added that “to expand the capitals that come from human capabilities, it is necessary to comprehensively consider not only human capital, but also psychological and social capital and find a balance among them. This will make it possible to achieve the country’s goals.” ※ “National Future Strategy Insight” is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute.

2021.01.20

Future Research

[National Future Strategy Insight] A Survey on the Future Values of Koreans, No. 10
Min Bo-gyeong, the head of the Quality of Life Group, conducted a “Survey on the Future Values of Koreans” to identify the values of younger Korean generations and predict the future Korean society. According to the National Future Strategy Insight No. 10, most of the participants predicted that the future will be hopeful, but the level of happiness of individuals will be similar to the one in the present. It was found that the elderly and low-income groups had a less hopeful outlook for the future. Although the participants expected that the future will be fairer than the present, they also expected that there will still be serious conflicts. Accordingly, it was highlighted that there must be preemptive measures to address potential future conflicts. In terms of comparison and analysis among different generations, it was found that younger generations considered leisure to be more important than older generations, and they also had less of a sense of duty regarding work. In addition, younger generations preferred a more autonomous and fulfilling life, and considered new challenges important. Lastly, younger generations were highly accepting towards new ideas about the family and scientific technology such as companion animals and human robots. Accordingly, future strategies should take into account these characteristics. For the “Survey on the Future Values of Koreans,” the research team of the National Assembly Futures Institute defined younger generation to be those currently in their teens and twenties. These findings were based on a survey of 5,321 men and women aged 13 and over living in Korea as of 2020 to identify implications for future policies. Dr. Min stated that “in order to derive national future strategies that define and realize a harmonious common idea of the future that reflects the various values of the citizens, there must be an understanding of the values of the citizens,” and explained that “this study helps to detect and predict the trend of values by conducting a survey on future values, and was designed to predict potential future issues and the future Korean society, and to fulfill the values of younger generations who are different from older generations.” ※ “National Future Strategy Insight” is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute.

2021.01.07

News Release

National Assembly Futures Institute hosts the 'Circular Economy Forum for Green Transition'
National Assembly Futures Institute hosts the 'Circular Economy Forum for Green Transition' - Suggesting Direction and Strategies of Circular Economy For Green Transition - The National Assembly Futures Institute(President, Kim Hyun Gon) will host the 'Circular Economy Forum For Green Transition' at Project Room A, Glad Yeouido Hotel on October 29 at 2:00 pm. This event will be co-hosted by the National Assembly Futures Institute, National Assembly Citizen Politics Forum, member of the National Assembly Lee Yong Sun, and the Korea Environment Institute, (KEI). It is expected to serve as a venue for discussion on the implementation of a circular economy that pursues sustainability through resource productivity improvement, resource sharing and cooperative acquisitions amid the growing attention to "coexistence with the environment" as the world suffers from COVID-19 and the climate crisis etc. The forum consists of presentations by four experts and designated discussions, and the presenters give a presentation on the industrial, local governments' and consumer strategies under the theme of diagnosing national circular economy and future vision. In the designated discussion, discussions will be made from various perspectives on “the circular economy direction and strategy for a green transition” as an extension of the presentation. Associate research fellow of the NAFI Kim Eun-Ah will share the result of task on the “urban strategy for promoting transition to a circular economy society". Kim Hyun Gon, the president of National Assembly Future Research Institute, emphasized that "through the forum, we would diagnose the role and status of the circular economy for green transition and discuss implementation strategies to contribute to the establishment of policy direction in the future."

2020.10.27

News Release

National Assembly Futures Institute co-hosted ‘National Quality of Life Measurement Forum'
National Assembly Futures Institute co-hosted ‘National Quality of Life Measurement Forum' - share the current status of national quality of life & discuss quality of life in the youth The National Assembly Futures Institute (President Kim Hyun-Gon) will co-hold the '6th National Quality of Life Measurement Forum' as online event on June 25 (Thur.) with Statics Korea (Commissioner Kang Shin-Wook) and the Korean Quality of Life Association (Chairman Han Jun). The 'National Quality of Life Measurement Forum' organized by Statics Korea·Statics Research Institute is a place where government agencies, research institutes, and academia participate to share research experiences and expertise related to quality of life measurement and application in policies, and has been held regularly since 2015. The theme of this forum is 'Current Status of Quality of Life in Korea and the Quality of Life in Youth'. In the first session, the current status of the quality of life in Korea is shared through international and regional comparisons, and method of application of these in policy is discussed. In the second session, the current status of quality of life in youth and how to measure it will be discussed. Recently, the society has emphasized the improvement of quality of life experienced by the people, and the necessities of detailed measurement on quality of life and application in policies have been raised. It is necessary to derive policy implications and improvement tasks cross country studies on quality of life and analysis of current status on in Korea. In addition, we need to come up with an effective plan to measure the quality of life in youth and design a policy to improve the quality of life in the youth through an analysis on the actual condition of the housing and labor of the youth etc. This forum will be held online due to the COVID-19. Anyone can participate in this online forum in real-time on the website of the 6th National Quality of Life Measurement Forum (http://www.kostatforum.kr). End. 【Attachment 1】 Outline of The 6th National Quality of Life Measurement Forum 【Attachment 2】 Summary of Presentation for The 6th National Quality of Life Measurement Forum Attachment 1 Outline of the Forum □ Purpose ○ Deriving policy implications cross country studies on quality of life and analysis of current status in Korea, and seeking ways to utilize them ○ Deducting of the political implication to measure the quality of life in youth and improve the quality of life in the youth through analysis on the actual condition of the housing and labor of the youth etc. □ Topic : current status of quality of life in Korea & quality of life in youth □ Date : at 13:40∼18:00 on June 25 (Thur.), 2020 □ Host : Statics Korea Statics Research Institute, the Korean Quality of Life Association, National Assembly Futures Institute □ How to participate : participate in real-time on the website (http://www.kostatforum.kr). □ Program Schedule time topic and contents of presentation presenter & chairman 13:40∼13:50 opening speech (10’) Commissioner of Statics Korea, Kang Shin-Wook 13:50~14:00 congratulatory remarks (10’) president of the NAFI Kim Hyun-Gon Chairman of Korean Quality of Life Association Han Jun 14:00∼14:20 keynote speech (20’) - implementing inclusive nation through revolution on quality of life - chairman of the board of the NRC Seong Kyeong-Ryung session 1 Current Status of Quality of Life in Korea chaired by : Prof. Han Jun 14:30~16:10 ‣Korea's happiness index from cross country studies (20’) Prof. Park Myung-Ho(Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) ‣Korea Happiness Map 1.0 Composition and Policy Implication (20’) Pro. Koo Kyo-Jun(Korea University) ‣Current Status of National Quality of Life Index Measurement Deputy Director Shim Soo-Jin(Statics Research Institute) ‣comprehensive discussion(40’) Research Fellow Jeong Hae-Sik (Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs) Associate Research Fellow Huh Jong-Ho (National Assembly Futures Institute) session 2 Current Status of Quality of Life in the Youth & How to Measure it Chaired by : Director Jeon Young-Il 16:20∼18:00 ‣analyzing the gap in quality of life in the youth (20’) Dr. Byeon Geum-Seon (National Youth Policy Institute ) ‣analyzing the housing reality in the youth by household type(20’) Dr. Park Mi-Seon (Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements) ‣reality of employment and living in the youth (20’) Dr. Kim Yoo-Bin (the Korea Labor Institute) ‣comprehensive discussion(40’) Prof. Jung In-Kwan (Soongsil Uni.) Assistant Research Fellow Park Gi-Tae (National Assembly Futures Institute) Attachment 2 Summary of Presentation <Keynote Lecture> Revolution on Quality of Life & Implementing Inclusive Nation (Chairman of the board of the NRC Seong Kyeong-Ryung) □ Reality in Korea ◦ Deterioration in quality of life (life satisfaction, social support, air pollution in the 2018 OECD BLI), declining fertility rates, natural decrease in populations, declining happiness, and increasing suicide rates □ Policy shift to realize an inclusive nation and an innovative economy ◦ Tax and finance, social security, employment, and innovation policies are required ◦ Social dialogue and inclusive leadership are necessary for the transition to an inclusive nation and an innovative economy. <Session 1> Current Status of Quality of Life in Korea □ (Korea's happiness index from cross country studies; Professor of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Park Myung-Ho) Preparing happiness index including factors such as social inequality and polarization, and analyzing factors that determine happiness in Korea from cross country studies ◦ preparing a new happiness indicator composed of positive and negative factors ◦ establishing a happiness index system and analyzing factors affecting the level of happiness in Korea from cross country studies with OECD members and other countries similar to Korea. □ (Korea Happiness Map 1.0 Composition and Policy Implications, Professor of Korea University Koo Kyo-Jun) Creating a happiness map by deriving the national happiness index by region, and sharing the analysis results on happiness inequality ◦ introduction of methodology for deriving the national happiness index ◦ presenting a national happiness map by region and area* of Korea * health, safety, environment, economy, education, relationship and social participation, leisure, life satisfaction ◦ introduction of analysis results on inequality and difference in happiness □ (Current Status of National Quality of Life Index Measurement, Deputy Director of Statics Research Institute Shim Soo-Jin) Introducing the current status of the “National Quality of Life Index” being prepared by the Statics Research Institute, as well as the index reorganization and preparation result of “How's Life? 2020” ◦ presenting backgrounds to preparing the quality of life index, index reformation and measurement results ◦ presenting an index reformation direction of OECD “How's Life? 2020” and a result for Korea ◦ deducing implications by comparing the national quality of life index with the OECD index <Session 2> Current Status of Quality of Life in the Youth & How to Measure it □ (Gap in the quality of life among the youth, Associate Research Fellow of the National Youth Policy Institute Byeon Geum-Seon, ) Analyzing the factors that determine the risk of multiple gaps in quality of life and introducing the issues of measuring the quality of life in the youth by using a study of youth socio-economic reality. ◦ measuring the quality of life in six areas including economy and health by using a study of youth socio-economic reality 2017 ◦ analyzing the factors that determine the risk of multiple gaps by demographic characteristics, and introducing the issues of measuring the quality of life in the youth □ (Analysis of housing reality in the youth by household type, Research Fellow of the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements Park Mi-Seon) Studying changes in conditions surrounding housing and analyzing housing reality in the youth by household type such as single-person households, couple households, cohabiting couple households and other cohabiting couple households ◦ raising housing issues for the youth according to the changes in social conditions ◦ analyzing the actual condition of housing type and occupancy type, residential area consumption, and housing cost burden by household type of the youth □ (Job and Living Conditions of the Youth, Research Fellow of the Korea Labor Institute Kim Yoo-Bin) Examining the current status of youth employment through the Economic Activity Census, and suggesting plans for future youth policies ◦ presenting reality of the youth job such as the employment status of the youth and the effects of employment ripple etc. ◦ suggesting future direction of youth policy including employment measures for the youth\

2020.06.25

News Release

National Assembly Futures Institute held an inauguration ceremony for its 2nd president (on June 1)
National Assembly Futures Institute held an inauguration ceremony for its 2nd president (on June 1) president Kim Hyun Gon committed to doing the best to be a think tank of the National Assembly that systematically prepares for the future of the nation with a long-term perspective National Assembly Futures Institute(president Kim Hyun Gon) held an inauguration ceremony at the first seminar room of the National Assembly Building at 11 a.m. on June 1. In his inauguration address, President Kim Hyun-Gon, who took office on the day, stressed that the NAFI would make efforts to establish the role of the institution in accordance with the purpose of establishing the institution under Article 1 of the 「National Assembly Futures Institute Act」. According to the Article 1 of the 「National Assembly Futures Institute Act」, the NAFI is established with the aims of reinforcing the National Assembly's policy capabilities and contributing to national development by predicting and analyzing changes in the future environment and deriving mid- to long-term national development strategies. President Kim identifies the NAFI as a valuable 'national future research institute belonging to the National Assembly', and stresses that he would do his best to establish the role of the NAFI as a 'think tank of the National Assembly that systematically and professionally designs and prepares for the future of the nation with a long-term perspective'. For these, President Kim commits to continue open, two-way communication and cooperation with the National Assembly, the government, and the public that are the three major clients of the NAFI, so that the research results produced by the institute can be reflected in government policies through the legislation in the National Assembly and gain public approval and acceptance. At the inauguration ceremony, Deputy Secretary-General for Legislative Affairs Han Gong-Sik, the Deputy Secretary-General of the National Assembly Kim Seung-Gi and first board members were in attendance, while Secretary-General of the National Assembly Yoo In-Tae and the first Chairman of the board of directors of the NAFI Kim Sun-Wook made a congratulatory speech. The farewell ceremony was also held for the former President Park Jin and appreciation plaques were awarded to the first board members. In accordance with the「National Assembly Futures Institute Act」, the board of directors of the NAFI began public recruitment for the position of second president from last March and recommended multiple candidates to the Speaker of the National Assembly at the end of March after reviewing documents and interviews. In accordance with the same act, former Speaker of the National Assembly Moon Hee-Sang requested the consent to the appointment of the candidate to the House Steering Committee, and the House Steering Committee unanimously approved the appointment at the plenary meeting on May 20. The Speaker Moon Hee-Sang, handed over Kim Hyun-Gon a certificate of appointment for the second president of the National Assembly Futures Institute at the Speaker's office on May 27 (Wed.), accordingly, President Kim's term of office started from May 30. The new president, Kim Hyun-Gon, completed his BA in Economics and Master of Business Administration from Seoul National University and a Ph.D. in Management Engineering from University of Tsukuba in Japan. President Kim served as vice-president at the National Information Society Agency, the president of Korea Land and Geospatial Informatix Corporation, a collaboration professor in the Department of Science and Technology Policy at Hanyang University and vice president of the Korea Association for Future Studies. He excels in operating institute as well as in future studies. The term of President Kim is for four years and ends on May 29, 2024 with the dissolution of the 21st National Assembly. <End> 【contact for inquiries】 - inquiry for the report : principal administrator Kim Byeong-Soo (02-788-3925) : administrator Kim Yeo-Joo (02-2224-9821) 【Reference Pictures】 ※ Picture 1 : Group Picture ※ Picture 2 : president Kim Hyun-Gon is giving an inauguration speech ※ Picture 3 : secretary-General of the National Assembly Yoo In-Tae is giving an congratulatory remarks ※ Picture 4 : Chairman of the board of directors of the NAFI Kim Sun-Wook (in the middle), the first president of the NAFI Park Jin (left) and the second president of the NAFI Kim Hyun-Gon ※ photo 5: first president of the NAFI Park Jin who received an appreciation plaque (left)

2020.06.01

News Release

Kim Hyun Gon, is appointed as the 2nd president of the National Assembly Futures Institute
Kim Hyun Gon, is appointed as the 2nd president of the National Assembly Futures Institute Speaker Moon Hee-Sang appoints Kim Hyun-Gon as the president of the NAIF after going through consent of the House Steering Committee The Speaker of the National Assembly Moon Hee-Sang, handed over a certificate of appointment for the second president of the National Assembly Futures Institute at the Speaker's office at 10:30 am on May 27 (Wed.). The Speaker Moon Hee-Sang appointed Kim Hyun-Gon, the CEO of the Korea Land and Geospatial Informatix Corporation, as the second president of the NAFI. In accordance with the 「National Assembly Futures Institute Act」, the Board of Directors of the NAFI (Chairman Kim Sun-Wook) openly advertised for the president of the NAFI on major daily newspapers in March, and then conducted document screening and interviews to recommend multiple director candidates to Chairman Moon. Chairman Moon nominated a candidate for the president in April and requested the House Steering Committee to agree on the appointment, and the House Steering Committee unanimously decided on a motion to appoint the candidate Kim Hyun Gon at the plenary meeting on May 20. The new president, Kim Hyun-Gon, completed his BA in Economics and Master of Business Administration from Seoul National University and a Ph.D. in Management Engineering from University of Tsukuba in Japan. Before President Kim worked as vice-president at the National Information Society Agency, he joined the Korea Information Society Development Institute (KISDI), and currently serves as the president of Korea Land and Geospatial Informatix Corporation. In addition, President Kim has been conducting academic research on the future while serving as a collaboration professor in the Department of Science and Technology Policy at Hanyang University and vice president of the Korea Association for Future Studies. As the term of the first President of the NAFI (President Park Jin) ends with the 20th National Assembly, President Kim's term will begin on May 30, the opening date of the 21st National Assembly. The farewell and inauguration ceremony of the president of the future research institute is scheduled to be held in the first seminar room of the National Assembly Hall at 11:00 am on June 1 (Mon). <End> [Reference] Profile of Kim Hyun-Gon, the 2nd President of the NAFI Name (age) Education Work Experience Kim Hyun Gon born on the 8th of June, 1961 / 58 years old •’90~’96 Ph.D in Management Engineering at Uni. of Tsukuba, Japan •’84~’86 MBA at Seoul National University •’80~’84 Bachelor of Economics at Seoul National University •’77~’80 Junju High School •’19.1~present: president of Korea Land and Geospatial Informatix Corporation •‘18~‘19 collaboration professor in the Department of Science and Technology Policy at Hanyang University •’96~’18 worked for the National Information Society Agency, (team leader of future strategy TF, head of national information planning group, vice chief and chief of big data strategy research center) •‘86~‘90 assistant research fellow of KISDI •’16~present: vice president of KAFS •’16~present: chief of information subcommittee, self evaluation committee of the ministry of justice 【contact for inquiries】 - inquiry for the report : principal administrator Kim Byoung-Soo (02-788-3925) : administrator Kim Yeo-Ju (02-2224-9821)

2020.05.27

News Release

National Assembly Futures Institute successfully held its 2nd anniversary celebration
National Assembly Futures Institute successfully held its 2nd anniversary celebration Speaker Moon Hee Sang said, “I hope that the NAFI become 'a platform for the National Assembly preparing for the future ‘ National Assembly Futures Institute(President Park Jin) held its 2nd anniversary celebration at the 2nd Meeting Room at the National Assembly Building at 10:00 am on May 26, 2020. At the celebration, the Speaker Moon Hee-sang said, “With my retirement ahead, it is very meaningful to me to see the 2nd anniversary of the NAFI, which will become 'a platform for the National Assembly preparing for the future'. And I look forward to the NAFI will continue to grow and carry out great mission to increase its responsiveness of the future.” The Speaker Moon also added, “The 20th National Assembly will end this week. The National Assembly of the Republic of Korea is assigned to collect various opinions from the Korean society and resolve conflicts. The 21st National Assembly should show its competence and results through hard work. Through this, we must restore the public trust and prepare for the future of national unity.” At the celebration, Speaker Moon Hee-sang awarded special meritorious plaques to the former Speakers of the National Assembly Jung Eui-Hwa and Jung Se-Kyun for contribution to the establishment of the NAFI. Meritorious plaques were awarded to the former Chairman of the House Steering Committee Jung Woo-Taek, a former executive member Park Hong-Geun, a former executive member Kim Seon-Dong, a former executive member Kwon Eun-Hee, the former Secretary-General of the 19th National Assembly Park Hyung-Jun and the former Secretary-General of the 20th National Assembly Kim Kyo-Heung. In addition, the Speaker Moon Hee-Sang awarded appreciation plaque to a head of the Preparatory Committee on the Establishment of NAFI Cho Dong-Sung (currently the President of Incheon National University) and the President of the NAFI Park Jin awarded appreciation plaques to other National Assembly members including Won Hye-Young, Kim Se-Yeon, Lee Won-Wook, Jung Yang-Seok, Lee Hye-Hoon etc. The floor leader of the United Future Party Joo Ho-Young and a number of National Assembly members including Won Hye-Young, Lee Hye-Hoon, Lee Won-Wook, Jung Yang-Seok, Kim Seon-Dong, Park Hong-Geun, Kwon Eun-Hee etc. were in attendance, while former Speakers Jung Eui-Hwa and Jung Se-Kyun delivered congratulatory messages. Also the Secretary-General of the National Assembly Yoo In-Tae, Deputy Secretary-General for Legislative Affairs Han Gong-Sik, Deputy Secretary-General of the National Assembly Kim Seung-Gi, former Secretary-Generals of the National Assembly Park Hyung-Jun and Kim Kyo-Heung, and president of Incheon National University Cho Dong-Sung etc. attended to the event. <End> 【contact for inquiries】 - inquiry for the report : principal administrator Kim Byeong-Soo (02-788-3925) : administrator Kim Yeo-Joo (02-2224-9821) 【Reference photo】 ※ photo 1 : Speaker Moon Hee-Sang gives words of encouragement ※ photo 2 : assistant administrator Park Hong-Geun awards speaker Moon Hee-Sang meritorious plaque ※ photo 3: speaker Moon Hee-Sang and members of the national assembly pledge allegiance to the nation ※ photo 4 : group photo at the 2nd anniversary of the NAFI ※ photo 5 : Chairman of the Board of the NAFI Kim Seon-Wook gives opening speech ※ photo 6 : president of the NAFI Park Jin gives a presentation on performance of the researches ※ photo 7 : participants suggest opinions for National Assembly Futures Institute

2020.05.26

Research Report

Prediction of Comprehensive Future Scenario of 2050
P.I : Kim Hong-bum

This research aimed to identify the desirable strategies, response strategies, and evasive strategies in rational terms for various types of future phenomena, including the changes in the demographic structure that features low birth rates and an aging society, changes in the North Korea-South Korea relationship, becoming an advanced country, and changes in global strategies due to multipolarized international order. In particular, as a macroscopic, long-term, and comprehensive research, this research focused on five areas including humans, governance, growth and development, three necessities of life (food, shelter, clothing), and individuals and communities. In terms of detailed research methodology, 24 questions about the future were deduced from the five areas of governance, growth and development, three necessities of life (food, shelter, clothing), individuals and communities, and humans, and an alternative future was identified for each question. In contrast to what is normally done whereby a single research on the future investigates the answer for a single question, this study sets itself apart from other studies in terms of the scale and comprehensiveness of the questions about the future. In addition, it has a different structure regarding the future scenarios in comparison to past research. Generally, in a research on the future, there are multiple possible future scenarios suggested for a single question. However, this study provides a three-structured future scenario, including the scenario about the question on the future, a comprehensive future scenario for each area, and a total comprehensive future scenario. In this research, the analysis on the determinants, scenarios and future policies were approached as standardized information factors. The BAU scenario was set to be the best possible future if the current trend of major policies and environmental variables continue in Korea. As such, the response strategies were suggested to properly respond to the changes in the major environmental variables and policies (system) of the scenario. For the scenario in which an overall decline is envisaged, which is a future that Korea must try to avoid, policies were suggested to alleviate the risks and losses that may come from the major environmental and policy changes in relation to this scenario. For the sustainable growth scenario, desirable policies related to the changes in determinants such as the environmental and political factors were suggested to accomplish the desired future scenario. Lastly, for the transitional scenario, a future scenario that takes exceptional cases into consideration, future changes in the environment, such as the segmentation of political factors in Korea due to the structural changes in the major systems on which the Korean society heavily depends, were discussed. By analyzing the differences with the BAU of each scenario, 10 political agendas were identified for each area. The agendas were then classified into desired, responsive, and evasive strategies and were suggested as strategies to prepare for the future filled with uncertainties. As the strategies also include policies that we should start to work on right away in preparation for 2050, the research suggested political agendas to be implemented by identifying the order of each process.

2019-12-31
Research on the Desired Future of Koreans
P.I : Park Seong-won et al.

This research discusses the many possibilities of the future society with the public, and suggests methods and processes to move towards a future society desired by the public. It also explains the reasons for and effects of having the public participate in the process of identifying the directions of mid- to long-term national strategies. Existing studies on the future of the society passively take into account the public’s participation. The studies normally suggested the vision and strategies of the future society based on the opinions from policymakers or expert groups, and asked for the public’s opinions on those issues. However, this research actively includes in the participation of the public in the process of forming the vision and strategies for the future society, and identifies the desired future society of the public and how to make it into reality. The research team first set the three value axes that should be considered when designing a future society, including change and stability, future-oriented and present-oriented, and individual freedom and community and solidarity. With these axes, the research team came up with four types of scenarios on the future society, including the rapidly growing society, stable growth society, sustainable distribution society, and the current distribution society. With these future scenarios, the research team asked the opinions of 502 citizens in Seoul, Daejeon, and Busan regarding these scenarios. There were in-depth discussions for more than five hours to talk about the future society desired by the public. Also, there was a survey on the desired future for experts in various fields to compare their answers to those of the public. In addition, the research team also investigated possible policy projects to realize the desired future. The results showed that 43% of the public participants desired a sustainable distribution society. The major values of the sustainable distribution society include the coexistence of rural and urban areas, active responses to climate change, a symbiotic relationship between conglomerates and SMEs, freedom to move within the labor market, cooperation, and social responsibilities. Sixty-three percent of the expert groups (65 experts) also desired a sustainable distribution society. The experts claimed that the desired future should be more challenge-oriented during these times of rapid scientific technological development, provide a system that minimizes the side effects that come from rapid changes, implement alternative policies to the discourses on growth, and a public demand for high-quality social welfare. Also, 34.9% of the public participants wished to avoid the stable growth society in the future. The stable growth society is characterized by an expansion in the economic and social gap between the urban and rural areas, increasing social problems due to intensified competition, greater global warming issues, more social and cultural conflict from increasing numbers of foreigners in Korea.

2019-12-31
A Survey of Adolescents’ Future Desired Values
P.I : NAFI

This research provides a theoretical analytic tool and empirical methodology to predict the changes in the future desired values of Korean adolescents, and to provide the basis for establishing a political roadmap of Korea in the future. By objectively identifying and predicting the current and future desired values of adolescents, who will lead the future, it will be possible to provide a blueprint to design the future of Korea filled with both infinite possibilities for growth and uncertainties. To identify the major value areas and concepts, as well as the empirical research methodology, domestic and international theoretical studies related to value and other existing studies on value were reviewed and analyzed, and there was also qualitative research on experts and students with experiences of future education for adolescents. A survey was also conducted for 554 male and female adolescents aged 15-18 from all over the country, and another for 630 male and female adults aged 19 and over, to compare the future desired values of adolescents and adults. The results showed that adolescents and adults both had a positive outlook on the future, while adolescents placed greater emphasis on the importance of individual values than adults. Adolescents considered material values to be important, but it was found that these values did not directly lead to economic wealth. Adolescents also had a greater sense of openness and acceptance in terms of diversity and social justice. Also, adolescents had a lower sense of duty for the country in comparison to adults, and had greater expectations for the roles of Koreans within the global society, rather than having a sense of national duties. Furthermore, among individual values, adolescents placed the greatest emphasis on the importance of “independence” and “achievement,” and also revealed conservative traits as they tended to conform to the existing order and system. In the survey of Koreans’ Future Desired Values, which will be conducted after this research, it is suggested to expand the areas that were found to be important for adolescents and in which they showed the highest levels of interest, including scientific technology, values as global citizens, community values, and subjective values on satisfaction of life. By regularly investigating the future desired values of adolescents, it will be possible to identify the changes and trends in values regarding the future generation, to secure important evidence to identify and predict the social changes in relation to the present and the future.

2019-12-31
Qualitative Research on the Preference of Political Futures of people in their Twenties – Centered on Labor and Immigration Policies, Family Policies, and Foreign and Security Policies –
P.I : Jung Young -hoon, Park Seong-won, Min Bo-gyeong, Heo Jong-ho

The National Assembly Futures Institute conducted the “Survey on Public Preference of Political Futures” online for 3,000 men and women aged between 15 and 65 from all over the country, from January 18 to 22, 2019. The results showed that those in their twenties had a preference for a conservative outlook and system in terms of foreign and security policies, local decentralization policies, and climate and energy policies, similar to those in their sixties. On the other hand, those in their twenties showed a more progressive tendency compared to other age groups when it came to the use of big data, policies on new types of living communities, policies for new types of social conflict, and assisted suicide. This research focused on the three policy areas where those in their twenties showed distinctive preference stances, which are labor and immigration policies, family policies, and foreign and security policies. Using focused group interviews, the research team collected data to conduct an in-depth and systematic analysis on the background and reasons for such preferences by using the grounded theory approach. Based on the findings, the research deduced implications for establishing policies to prepare for changes in the future. The results of the analysis showed that labor and immigration policies can cause the greatest social and political controversy in terms of the possible outlook for the future. It is difficult to break the “otherization” of migrant workers by those in their twenties, as it is based on the economic and social environment in which they find themselves. There should be policies to qualitatively and quantitatively control the influx of migrant workers, as well as social integration policies to minimize conflicts between Korean nationals and migrants, to improve the national level of acceptance for migrant workers. Improving the national level of acceptance regarding immigrants will contribute to securing a more objective and balanced awareness when it comes to Korea taking a strategic stance on foreign and security policies. There will be a smaller range of choices in terms of diplomatic strategies for Korea between China and the United States if we feel closer to American culture and distinct from Chinese culture. It is extremely unfortunate in terms of creating peace in Northeastern Asia that those in their twenties have strong negative sentiments about the Chinese and Chinese culture. It is relatively less likely that family policies will cause conflict among the members of society than the other two types of policies. Those in their fifties have a strong awareness about changes related to the family system, regardless of the values of family that they wish to keep. They are also aware of the fact that they cannot change the upcoming trend when it comes to family values. Although it is possible that the system of “family” will change in the future, the traditional and new views on family will coexist, and it is difficult to predict how long such conflicting views will coexist. What is important here is that there should be a neutral policy in terms of the types of family. This should start from accepting the fact that individuals should be free to change their types of family based on their own choices, without facing discrimination.

2019-12-31
Research on Koreans’ Happiness
P.I : NAFI

Despite material prosperity, the low happiness level of Korean people is generating more discussions on happiness within the society. However, there is still a lack of preparation for analyzing happiness in detail and applying happiness to our lives. Thus this research aimed to theoretically define the concept of happiness, and scientifically measure happiness to provide a basic framework of happiness that can be applied to our everyday lives. The research consisted of the conceptualization of happiness, establishing a happiness indicator system and developing a happiness index, analysis of happiness by regions, and analysis of factors that determine happiness and happiness inequality by region. If existing research on happiness was centered on pleasure and subjective well-being, this research presented and used various areas of happiness (health, safety, environment, economy, education, relationship and social participation, and leisure) to secure a basic life in which humans can enjoy dignity and value, based on the theory of competence. In addition, the research also added subjective satisfaction, which is an important factor of happiness, to calculate the happiness index of the Korean people. After calculating the happiness level for Koreans, it was shown that the top 20% in terms of happiness was mostly centered in the Seoul metropolitan area and the Jeolla provinces. There were similar regional tendencies for other areas as well, except for economy. However, there were no significant differences by region in the subjective life satisfaction that used the data of life satisfaction. There were also differences by regions from the subcategories of happiness. As major indices related to health are closely connected to medical and health facilities, major cities occupied the top ranking places. Although rural areas occupied the top places in relation to safety, environment, and leisure, major cities were ranked higher in terms of economy. There were no differences by region in education in comparison to other areas, and there was no clear trend for the top places in relationships and social participation. Those living in rural areas and small to medium-sized cities tended to have relatively higher life satisfaction. The results of this research may be used to suggest the directions for political intervention to reduce the gap in happiness by region. First, it is suggested that in order to improve the happiness level, political goals should be focused on increasing regional competencies rather than on growth. Also, instead of implementing uniform policies such as providing cash benefits, it is necessary to develop various policies customized to individuals and regions.

2019-12-31
Research Based on “Measurement of Koreans’ Happiness Level”
P.I : NAFI

Korea is one of the major countries with a low happiness level in comparison to its high economic status. In order to improve the happiness level of the pubic, it is absolutely necessary to accumulate empirical data on the systematic and comprehensive measurement of happiness of the public, and the investigation of happiness factors. As such, there should be a tool that can be used for a long period of time to measure happiness and related variables. Regardless, due to the comprehensive and general nature of happiness, the executive branch and government-funded research institutes could not collect official data on happiness. Thus, in order to collect high-quality data to improve the role of the National Assembly on improving the happiness level of the public, the National Assembly Futures Institute conducted “Research based on Korea Quality of Life Survey” in 2018 and “Research based on Measurement of Koreans’ Happiness Level” in 2019. This research aims to develop a measurement tool that not only satisfies international standards but also takes into account the characteristics of Korean society, based on the findings of research over the past two years. Furthermore, the research aims to identify the Koreans’ happiness level in global terms and present an in-depth understanding of happiness of the Korean people. First, the research presents the concept of happiness and the need for measurement, and then reviews the domestic and international existing related research and measurement tools for happiness, and those also from international organizations such as the OECD Better Life Index. Afterwards, along with expert advice, a structuralized survey with 88 items to measure the happiness level of Koreans was developed. The survey can not only directly measure the multilevel aspects of happiness, but also investigate the multifaceted and multilevel predictors of happiness. Based on the findings of the research, it is planned to annually collect high quality happiness-related data from the Korean public at the national level. The happiness level of the public is an index that shows the current status of the society that can be used as evidence to evaluate and assess the effectiveness of national policies. Also, the data may contribute to lawmaking activities of the National Assembly to secure a happy future for the public.

2019-12-31
Series of Research on Long-Term Strategies for National Development Ⅱ Research on the Governance Reform Agenda for Long-Term National Development
P.I : Lee Sun-hwa

This report analyzes how the top governance system of national policies, i.e. the long-term strategy of the government and the national decision-making system that determines the policy directions and delivery, works. In organizational terms, the report focuses on the legislative branch (the political party and the National Assembly), the administrative bureaucracy and the financial authorities. In functional terms, the report focuses on the decision-making system through representative democracy, policy enforcement through bureaucracy, and financial management by financial authorities. The main question of the research can be summarized as whether the current government system and the related systems are suitable for solving the challenges faced by the Korean community, and what kinds of innovations must take place to secure problem solving skills for new issues that have arisen. Part Ⅰ explains the significance of studying the long-term national development in terms of the governance system. The reason why governance systems, including decision-making processes for national policies, are important is that the success of relocating public resources and providing public service in various areas of public policies, including economy, society, labor, and education, depends on how the policy demands and preferences of a sovereign are delivered and made into policies. Part Ⅱ analyzes the representative democratic system, which is the constitutional principle upon which national decision-making processes are based, and the functions of the legislative branch. The problem with the current decision-making process in Korea is the fact that the governance system that was oriented toward the president and the administration that valued efficiency during the rapid growth period, still exists even to this day, and this has made the gap between the democratic system and its practice even greater. Based on this idea, the research defined the problem of the decision-making system in Korea as being a “non-compromising, winner-take-all” system, and suggested that in the future, the decision-making system should incorporate the following criteria: politics of competition and negotiation, the alleviation of unbalanced responsibility and authority, alleviation of an information asymmetry between the National Assembly and the administration, the increase of public participation, and improvement of acceptance. The research team has suggested a decision-making system that considers the future social problems and policy demands within the boundaries of the current power structure and the Constitution. It is largely divided into problems within the National Assembly, problems between the National Assembly and the administrations, and issues related to decision-making based on public participation. Part Ⅲ focuses on the bureaucracy in charge of delivering policies. The research team questioned why the bureaucratic system, which had been praised as the driving force behind the successful rapid growth of Korea in the past, is no longer effective, and why various past efforts for innovation of the system had failed. In order to answer these questions, the research first highlighted the history of development of the Korean bureaucracy in terms of system and operation. Next, the research presented the possible reforms of bureaucracy required to enhance the performance of the policy delivery system under the policy environment of democratization, marketization, and politicization. The reforms were classified into strengthening the policy capabilities of the bureaucrats, overcoming departmental silos, and solving the problem of the politicization of bureaucrats. The research proposed reforms in the recruitment and promotion systems to reinforce the policy capabilities of bureaucrats, and changes in jurisdiction and establishment of a cooperative system among departments to resolve the issues of departmental silos. To resolve the politicization of bureaucrats, the research presented the possible methods of reform by dividing them into two parts of admitting the politicization and reinforcing the neutral political stance. Part Ⅳ discusses financial governance for a sustainable fiscal management. Fiscal governance refers to a decision-making system related to the compilation, deliberation, and approval of budgets under economic (budget) constraints that limit policy enforcement. The financial functions of fiscal governance are largely summarized into two parts of supporting government policies in terms of budget, and maintaining fiscal stability from a macroscopic perspective. Part Ⅳ also highlights the successes of fiscal management during the rapid growth stage of Korea and the present limitations, while presenting possible tasks for fiscal management in response to the environmental changes. The current problems in the financial sector are that the fiscal governance did not adequately adapt to changes in the political environment of socio-economic structure and democracy, resulting in a lower sustainability of fiscal management. In terms of reform in the financial sector, the research suggests that there should be a way to manage fiscal constraints of revenue-expenditure-national debt and the role of fiscal governance that includes the National Assembly and the fiscal authorities of the administration.

2019-12-31
Series of Research on Long-Term Strategies for National Development Ⅲ Research on the Reform Agenda for Improving the Quality of Life for the People: Focusing on Welfare, Housing, and Health
P.I : Heo Jong-ho

Although Korea has achieved economic growth and development of democracy in a short period of time, it is now faced with long-term threats including internal and external changes of future environments and the introduction of new risk factors. Thus in order to secure continuous growth and improve the quality of life for the Korean people, there should be future policy goals and implementation strategies that reflect the various risk factors and uncertainties of the future. Thus this research established long-term national development strategies centered on welfare, housing, and health, the major areas that can affect the quality of life for the people, and the detailed policies to implement such strategies. The comprehensive summary of the results of the research is presented as follows. This research is different from past research that presented short-term policy tasks and strategies, as it identified the risk factors based on internal and external environmental changes to improve the quality of life in the future, and suggested long-term policy directions for the future and their implementation strategies. Based on the findings of this research, it is possible to prepare feasible alternative policies to achieve the ultimate goal of improving the quality of life in the future, and to reduce uncertainties regarding the future.

2019-12-31

Brief Report

[National Future Strategy Insight] One Year with COVID-19: How Did People’s Lives Change? No. 12
P.I : Heo Jong-ho

Associate Research Fellow Heo Jong-ho investigated the changes that came to the Korean people in terms of “Changes in jobs and income,” “Changes in family relationships,” “Changes in the awareness of value and actions related to infectious disease prevention and control,” and “Changes in health.” The findings identified the damage experienced by the people from COVID-19, especially by the vulnerable groups. It predicted that if the pandemic is to go on, there will be greater socioeconomic inequality. In terms of “Changes in jobs and income,” among the respondents aged 20 and over, 5.5% experienced a change in jobs such as layoffs or closures of business. Among the 5.5%, 55.6% were female and 44.4% were male. Of the total respondents, 19.6% answered that their income decreased, and the amount of decrease of monthly income was KRW 795,000 on average. Although 88.2% of employees (who receive income from an employer) did not experience a decrease in income, 61.2% of those who were self-employed responded that their incomes decreased, and 9.7% of self-employed responded that their monthly incomes decreased by at least KRW one million in average. In terms of “Changes in family relationships,” 14.8% of the respondents said that their family relationships became better after COVID-19. However, for households in Seoul metropolitan area, public assistance recipient households, and one-person households, family relationships became worse rather than becoming better. For “Changes in the awareness of value and actions related to infectious disease prevention and control,” 69% of the respondents agreed that it is necessary to sacrifice some aspects of daily life to prevent the spread of the virus. Among the respondents, 55% agreed that those who were infected with the virus were at fault for being so, and 63.2% agreed that it is necessary to disclose information on the movements of those confirmed to have the virus. The percentages of those living in Seoul metropolitan area who agreed with the three statements were approximately 3%-7% lower than those of those not living in Seoul metropolitan area. For “Changes in health,” 16.6% of the respondents said that they became healthier after COVID-19. It was also noted that the percentage of one-person households who took action to stay healthy was approximately 1%-5% lower than that of other households. The percentage of females who are at high risk of depression was 10% lower than that of males, 19% of the respondents aged 20 and older said that they reduced smoking, whereas 6.9% responded that they smoked even more. Smoking was reduced more for females than for males (Male 18.6% vs. Female 24.2%). Of the respondents, 13.0% answered that they reduced drinking by 1.6 times a week on average. The percentage of males who responded that they reduced drinking was 2.5 times greater than that of females, and 22.0% of those aged 20 and over responded that they reduced drinking. The study was conducted by the research team of the National Assembly Futures Institute last year, and was based on the responses related to COVID-19 in the “Survey of Happiness of the Korean People” conducted on 14,000 males and females aged 15 and over from all around the country. Dr. Heo stated that “at an international level, the numbers suggest that Koreans are relatively less miserable, but the results still pointed to the serious impact from COVID-19 that hit vulnerable groups the hardest. Also, there is concern regarding potential greater socioeconomic inequality,” and advised that “there should be evidence-based policies for not only infectious disease prevention and control, but also regarding socioeconomic inequalities that stem from COVID-19.”

2021-02-16
[National Future Strategy Insight] An Investigation into and Future Challenges regarding Education Policies to Expand Psychological and Social Capital, No. 11
P.I : Sung Moon-ju

[National Future Strategy Insight] An Investigation into and Future Challenges regarding Education Policies to Expand Psychological and Social Capital, No. 11 Associate Research Fellow Sung Moon-ju presented challenges related to education policies to expand “psychological capital,” healthy and positive psychological states of individuals, and “social capital,” intangible capital that comes from the social relationships between people and lead to individual or public benefits in her report. After identifying the current levels of psychological and social capitals of the members of society, it was found that it is necessary to improve the levels of both types of capital. Particularly, levels of resilience, participation and networking, and public trust were especially low, and so it was concluded that these levels must be significantly improved. In terms of the low-income, it was found that the state must actively intervene to improve the levels of psychological and social capitals. The role of university education to expand psychological and social capitals also needed to be strengthened. Based on these findings, the report listed the following challenges in relation to education policies: implementation of various types of evaluation methods and evaluation criteria for elementary and middle school education, and the separation of student evaluation at the classroom level and at the national level; increase of the opportunities for students to participate in developing national elementary and middle school education curricula and decision making processes of schools in terms of the education curriculum; development of a program to improve the level of psychological capital for university students at the university level; increase of the accessibility and the number of programs for adults to improve resilience; and establishment of an education organization that strengthens intangible social learning. Dr. Sung stated that “in order to achieve the national goal of securing national competitiveness and improving the quality of life of the citizens with innovative growth, there must be a greater perspective on capital,” and added that “to expand the capitals that come from human capabilities, it is necessary to comprehensively consider not only human capital, but also psychological and social capital and find a balance among them. This will make it possible to achieve the country’s goals.” ※ “National Future Strategy Insight” is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute.

2021-01-20
[National Future Strategy Insight] A Survey on the Future Values of Koreans, No. 10
P.I : Min Bo-gyeong

Min Bo-gyeong, the head of the Quality of Life Group, conducted a “Survey on the Future Values of Koreans” to identify the values of younger Korean generations and predict the future Korean society. According to the National Future Strategy Insight No. 10, most of the participants predicted that the future will be hopeful, but the level of happiness of individuals will be similar to the one in the present. It was found that the elderly and low-income groups had a less hopeful outlook for the future. Although the participants expected that the future will be fairer than the present, they also expected that there will still be serious conflicts. Accordingly, it was highlighted that there must be preemptive measures to address potential future conflicts. In terms of comparison and analysis among different generations, it was found that younger generations considered leisure to be more important than older generations, and they also had less of a sense of duty regarding work. In addition, younger generations preferred a more autonomous and fulfilling life, and considered new challenges important. Lastly, younger generations were highly accepting towards new ideas about the family and scientific technology such as companion animals and human robots. Accordingly, future strategies should take into account these characteristics. For the “Survey on the Future Values of Koreans,” the research team of the National Assembly Futures Institute defined younger generation to be those currently in their teens and twenties. These findings were based on a survey of 5,321 men and women aged 13 and over living in Korea as of 2020 to identify implications for future policies. Dr. Min stated that “in order to derive national future strategies that define and realize a harmonious common idea of the future that reflects the various values of the citizens, there must be an understanding of the values of the citizens,” and explained that “this study helps to detect and predict the trend of values by conducting a survey on future values, and was designed to predict potential future issues and the future Korean society, and to fulfill the values of younger generations who are different from older generations.” ※ “National Future Strategy Insight” is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute.

2021-01-07
[National Future Strategy Insight] Social Changes after the Global Pandemic, No. 9
P.I : Park Seong-won, Kim You-bean

Park Seong-won, the head of the Innovative Growth Group, and Kim You-bean, the head of the Research Support Office, identified unprecedented social changes stemming from COVID-19. Some of the many changes are related to radical social finance policies, greater inequality, risks to women and the vulnerable groups, area closures, depression, domestic violence, remote education, digital transformation, climate change, animal welfare, and human-animal interactions. These are some changes that were identified by the researchers at the National Assembly Futures Institute to discover the social changes that occurred since the global pandemic based on a keyword network analysis of SCOPUS DB (Social Sciences) which has the most data on academic journals. The research team analyzed the perspectives of various scholars on the social changes that occurred as a result of infectious diseases since 2000, including SARS, the swine flu, MERS, and COVID-19. After investigating the unique issues for each period, it was found that during SARS, there was not only an economic shock, but also psychological changes with regard to resilience, social stigma, and psychological anxiety. During the swine flu, there was a focus on the scientific analysis on the spread of the disease with big data and simulations, and there were also discussions on a system to monitor the animals that were the cause of the disease. During MERS, it was possible to identify the spread of information on the disease with the cooperation between the citizens and the government, and also on social media. The research team mentioned that in order to respond properly to the COVID-19 pandemic, there should be rapid treatment of the disease and vaccine development, an efficient international cooperation system to spread treatments and vaccines, detailed analysis of the effects of the responsive policies, and continuously fine tuning of the policies. Also, it is necessary to secure the people’s trust towards the government to make them cooperate, as well as deriving future-oriented regulation policies. Dr. Park and Dr. Kim explained that “the issues regarding the global economic system that is vulnerable to sudden changes, crisis response governance, distrust in the government, infringement of personal rights and freedom, extreme psychological anxiety, poor international policy cooperation, and the fundamental causes of zoonotic infectious diseases that result in environmental destruction and the poor responses to climate change are issues that have always been present since SARS in 2002. There must be an innovative approach to resolve such issues.” ※ “National Future Strategy Insight” is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute.

2020-12-24
[National Future Strategy Insight] An Analysis on the Ripple Effect of Digital Transformation on Korea’s Economic Society and Political Insights, No. 8
P.I : Yeo Yeong-jun

[National Future Strategy Insight] An Analysis on the Ripple Effect of Digital Transformation on Korea’s Economic Society and Political Insights, No. 8 Yeo Yeong-jun, an Associate Research Fellow at the National Assembly Futures Institute, predicted that with a rapid digital transformation, there may be economic growth based on the growth of digital transformation-based industries, but in terms of income distribution, income inequality may become greater. That is to say, expanding government investment to drive digital transformation will accelerate the change in the industrial structure to be more focused on digital capital-intensive industries based on industrial linkage. This will definitely lead the future growth of the Korean economic society. On the other hand, with digital transformation, it was predicted that there will be relatively less jobs and opportunities for middle-skill workers to obtain economic benefits, as digital transformation technology is closely linked to non-routine tasks of high-skilled workers. A wider gap within the labor market will lead to greater household income inequality, which will result in decreased inclusivity in the digital transformation era. Accordingly, it was stated that future innovative policy initiatives in the digital transformation era should be based on the understanding of the propensities of digital transformation technology. In particular, the innovative policy initiatives should include the guarantee and support of various types of learning activities including the up-skilling, re-skilling, and creative learning of human resources within the innovation system. The report analyzed the effects of digital transformation, otherwise known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution, on the future Korean economic society in areas of calculated effects by industries, creating added value, and creating and distributing household income. It then identified the potential risks and opportunities presenting themselves to the Korean economic social system in the digital transformation era. Dr. Yeo stated that “in order to execute a major shift to a successful innovative system with digital transformation, organizational culture, labor-management relations, relationship between the education system and industries, and the like, must be completely reset towards a direction to seek creative learning experiences,” and mentioned that “based on the major findings of this research, it may be said that the purpose and vision of the future innovative policies in the digital transformation era should be focused on setting up an environment that strengthens learning capabilities and spreads the ripple effects of education.” ※ “National Future Strategy Insight” is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute.

2020-12-10
[National Future Strategy Insight] Responses to the Effects of Climate Change and Suggestions – Focused on Quantitative Comparisons on National Research Policies, No. 7
P.I : Kim Eun-ah

[National Future Strategy Insight] Responses to the Effects of Climate Change and Suggestions – Focused on Quantitative Comparisons on National Research Policies, No. 7 Kim Eun-a, an Associate Research Fellow of the National Assembly Futures Institute, identified Korea’s preparation for the future effects of climate change in terms of ① Research ② Administration policies, and ③ Legislative policies in her study on the establishment of response strategies to climate change for the future society, a major task of 2020. After analyzing related literature and texts, she defined vulnerable areas as those that lack in quantity and identified such vulnerable areas as the following categories: the movements of different species, public health policies, stable energy supply, and transportation systems. With seminars on such topics with experts, she identified research topics and policy agendas that must be complemented to “increase the level of preparation for the future” in terms of the effects and consequences that stem from climate change. In terms of the movements of different species and public health policies, she pointed out that climate change is considered relatively less important in relation to such policies. There should be basic research on the effects of the movements of species on urban residents and the indirect effects of climate change on health, and the results may be used for communicating with the public to bring about a change in awareness. The suggested policy agendas mostly used the top-down method that brings about change under the leadership of the government, including support policies and institutionalization. In terms of stable energy supply and transportation systems, it was commonly pointed out that the current policies were focused on energy sources or electricity suppliers based on the current amount of demand for electricity or energy. She stated that there should be policies that are based on future predictions related to changes in lifestyle that result from social changes brought about by circumstances such as COVID-19, and that energy policies and urban planning should be implemented to complement one another. The suggested policy agenda should be formulated in such a way as to design an urban space that can reduce the demand for energy and increase energy efficiency, to modify the price of electricity and fuel needed to effectively use market mechanisms, and to set up various systems. Dr. Kim stated that “climate change is a global megatrend that can affect the lives of the people in various ways and will continue on for many more years,” and mentioned that “there should be a well thought out preparation plan at the national level for the mid- to long-term effects on various areas of human life.” ※ “National Future Strategy Insight” is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute.

2020-11-25
[National Future Strategy Insight] The Citizens’ Choice to Switch to a Conservation and Distribution Society, No. 6
P.I : Jung Young-hoon, Park Seong-won

Jung Younghoon, a former National Assembly Futures Institute researcher, and Park Seong-won, the head of the Innovative Growth Group, conducted a survey on the citizens’ preference on future policies to realize an ideal future in October, following the deliberative poll on the public’s ideal future society in 2050 they had conducted last year. The survey suggested two policy alternatives for 11 topics including energy production and consumption, means of transportation, response to global infectious diseases, basic income and basic wealth systems, new labor environment including platform labor, and diversifying family types, and then asked the citizens for their choices to realize an ideal future. In summary of the public’s choices for each policy alternative, it was shown that the citizens think that (large) cities need changes rather than rural areas, and that the private sector should be at the center of change, rather than the government. What was interesting was that when it comes to resolving conflicts, the citizens preferred the government or the National Assembly to be responsible rather than the private sector. In terms of energy switch, response to infectious diseases, punishment for hate crimes, and family types, citizens preferred more of a gradual change than a radical change. In terms of welfare policies, the citizens preferred policies that cover everyone, including the current generation and the future generations, instead of focusing on particular age groups or social class. ※ “National Future Strategy Insight” is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute.

2020-11-19
[National Future Strategy Insight] A New Way to Derive National Strategies in Response to the Aging Society, No. 5
P.I : Kim Hyeon-gon

President Kim Hyeon-gon of the National Assembly Futures Institute has suggested six new ways to derive national strategies in response to the aging society in No. 5 of the “National Future Strategy Insight.” ▼ First, he suggested that rather than keeping with the elderly support policies, there should be a shift in paradigm to an independent aging society considering the fact that anyone can become an elderly person who lives a long life. ▼ Second, he stated that considering the fact that the public actively looks forward to the positive aspects of the future, while seeking to ignore negative possibilities, there should be a ‘Scrooge Strategy’ with regard to the aging society. ▼ Third, there should be a way for the elderly to come together for discussion and design national strategies in response to the aging society for themselves. ▼ Fourth, there should be a national health and physical activity program to which the elderly can actively contribute, leading to more possibilities for the elderly to contribute to society. ▼ Fifth, in order to make sure that the elderly can participate in valuable work and activities after retirement, there should be a national compulsory re-education system for the middle aged and the elderly. ▼ Lastly, there should be a data-based national strategy in response to the aging society by collecting all past data related to aging to analyze the fundamental issues and causes of the aging society in Korea, along with related trends and patterns, to solve the fundamental issues associated with the aging society. President Kim stated that “aging is not simply a change in the demographic structure or change in life expectancy, but more of a fundamental change of the life model,” and emphasized that “with a shift in paradigm in the 21st century, we must have new, different responses that are different from the ones that we have taken in the past.” ※ “National Future Strategy Insight” is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute.

2020-11-12