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The National Assembly Futures Institute publishes reports that predict and analyze the changes in the future environment based on a comprehensive perspective, and derive mid- to long-term national development strategies in consideration of the preferences of the citizens
Prediction of Comprehensive Future Scenario of 2050

Date : 2019-12-31 item : Research Report 19-01 P.I : Kim Hong-bum

This research aimed to identify the desirable strategies, response strategies, and evasive strategies in rational terms for various types of future phenomena, including the changes in the demographic structure that features low birth rates and an aging society, changes in the North Korea-South Korea relationship, becoming an advanced country, and changes in global strategies due to multipolarized international order. In particular, as a macroscopic, long-term, and comprehensive research, this research focused on five areas including humans, governance, growth and development, three necessities of life (food, shelter, clothing), and individuals and communities.

In terms of detailed research methodology, 24 questions about the future were deduced from the five areas of governance, growth and development, three necessities of life (food, shelter, clothing), individuals and communities, and humans, and an alternative future was identified for each question. In contrast to what is normally done whereby a single research on the future investigates the answer for a single question, this study sets itself apart from other studies in terms of the scale and comprehensiveness of the questions about the future. In addition, it has a different structure regarding the future scenarios in comparison to past research. Generally, in a research on the future, there are multiple possible future scenarios suggested for a single question. However, this study provides a three-structured future scenario, including the scenario about the question on the future, a comprehensive future scenario for each area, and a total comprehensive future scenario. In this research, the analysis on the determinants, scenarios and future policies were approached as standardized information factors.

The BAU scenario was set to be the best possible future if the current trend of major policies and environmental variables continue in Korea. As such, the response strategies were suggested to properly respond to the changes in the major environmental variables and policies (system) of the scenario. For the scenario in which an overall decline is envisaged, which is a future that Korea must try to avoid, policies were suggested to alleviate the risks and losses that may come from the major environmental and policy changes in relation to this scenario.

For the sustainable growth scenario, desirable policies related to the changes in determinants such as the environmental and political factors were suggested to accomplish the desired future scenario. Lastly, for the transitional scenario, a future scenario that takes exceptional cases into consideration, future changes in the environment, such as the segmentation of political factors in Korea due to the structural changes in the major systems on which the Korean society heavily depends, were discussed.

By analyzing the differences with the BAU of each scenario, 10 political agendas were identified for each area. The agendas were then classified into desired, responsive, and evasive strategies and were suggested as strategies to prepare for the future filled with uncertainties. As the strategies also include policies that we should start to work on right away in preparation for 2050, the research suggested political agendas to be implemented by identifying the order of each process.

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