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The National Assembly Futures Institute publishes reports that predict and analyze the changes in the future environment based on a comprehensive perspective, and derive mid- to long-term national development strategies in consideration of the preferences of the citizens
A Study on Meta-evaluation Measures for the Government's Mid- to Long-term Plans

Date : 2019-12-31 item : Research Report 19-15 P.I : NAFI

The purpose of this study is to identify problems related to the government's mid- to long-term plans through the analysis of 533 official mid- to long-term plans as of 2019, and to devise an evaluation framework with respect to the composition, establishment procedures, and contents of the government's mid- to long-term plans. It is expected that meta-evaluation measures for the government's mid- to long-term plans can be continuously discussed in the future by supplementing and developing the methodology presented in this study.

Pursuant with laws, the government has established and implemented official mid-to-long-term plans for 5 to 20 years, but there have been limitations in achieving the purpose of establishing these mid- to long-term plans. Since the mid- to long-term plans were established at the level of individual policies or projects, they tend to lack a proper analysis of the current status of the mid- to long-term plans of all ministries, the effectiveness of the plans' establishment procedures and contents, consistency among the plans, long-term prospects, and their expected effects.

According to the analysis of 533 official mid- to long-term plans as of 2019, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport was drawing up 71 plans, which accounts for the largest share (13.3%) of the total, followed by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries with 58 plans (10.9%), the Ministry of Environment with 55 plans (10.3%), the Ministry of Health and Welfare with 42 plans (7.9%), and the Ministry of Science and ICT with 38 plans (7.1%).

The most frequently referenced (cited) plans in relation to other mid- to long-term plans were the Basic Plan on Science and Technology (13), National Comprehensive Territorial Plan (12), and the Basic Plan on Forests (6), and the plans that referenced (cited) other plans were mostly mid- to long-term plans in the social policy field, such as the Basic Plan on Social Security (9), the Basic Plan on Child Policy (7), and Basic Plan on Low Fertility and Aging Society (7).

This study selected 10 major mid- to long-term plans in the fields of science and technology, settlement conditions, and social policy, and reviewed them in terms of composition, establishment procedures, and contents, to derive criteria and a framework for mid- to long-term plan meta-evaluation.

In addition, by integrating experts' discussions by field, financial project analysis systems, and pre-impact evaluation systems, validity (how objective and rational are the analysis results based on which the mid- to long-term plan has been established?), fidelity (does the plan have elements essential to a mid- to long-term plan?), and feasibility (does the mid- to long-term plan include the contents needed in the application process and consider the relations with ministries and other plans that it needs to cooperate with?) were set as meta-evaluation criteria.

There is a need to construct a promotion system for the integrated management of mid- to long-term plans based on discussions between the administration and the legislature on the subjects, targets, methods, and cycle of future mid- to long-term plan evaluation. There is also a need to re-examine if a plan satisfies the requirements for the establishment of any mid- to long-term plans, to increase the efficiency of the national long-term strategy implementation system centering on indispensable mid- to long-term plans. In addition, since the government's mid- to long-term plans are linked to legislative and fiscal projects, it is necessary to consider the measures to activate the utilization of the comprehensive evaluation results of mid- to long-term plans by the Standing Committee, Budget Office, and Research Service of the National Assembly.