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The National Assembly Futures Institute publishes reports that predict and analyze the changes in the future environment based on a comprehensive perspective, and derive mid- to long-term national development strategies in consideration of the preferences of the citizens
A Preliminary Study on the Meta-Evaluation of Mid- to Long-term Plans in the Field of Settlement Conditions

Date : 2019-12-31 item : Research Report 19-17 P.I : Min Bo-gyeong

The government has established and implemented mid- to long-term plans in accordance with individual laws and regulations for major policies and projects, but several limitations have been revealed in the effectiveness of mid- to long-term planning processes and their contents, the consistency of related mid- to long-term plans, and the analysis of long-term prospects and expected effects. This study applies the methodology derived by the National Assembly Futures Institute for the meta-evaluation of the government's mid- to long-term plans to national comprehensive territorial plans, which are the highest-level plans in the field of settlement conditions, to establish a framework for mid- to long-term plan meta-evaluation suitable for the field of settlement conditions, and presents some suggestions for enhancing the effectiveness of mid- to long-term plans in this field.

As a result of examining the strategies and tasks of the Revised 4th National Comprehensive Territorial Plan using the evaluation criteria for each sector, it was found that in the national territory, urban and regional sectors, the ripple effects of the strategies and tasks were not analyzed while the coherence of these strategies and tasks and the redundancies with other plans were reviewed. In the environmental sector, a considerable overlap between the contents of the National Comprehensive Territorial Plan and the National Comprehensive Environmental Plan was found, but with no legal standard for setting priorities between two conflicting plans, there is no choice but to rely on arbitrary judgments at the implementation stage.

In the transportation sector, the plan was lacking in terms of concrete implementation schedules, financing plans, and the quantification of expected effects related to large-scale infrastructure construction. In addition, in the housing sector, only an insufficient level of future driver review and prediction was made at the future prediction analysis part. The regional economy and industry sector plan presented an analysis of ripple effects, which was, however, lacking in terms of objective and scientific data. Based on these evaluation results, this study suggests several measures to improve the effectiveness of the National Comprehensive Territorial Plan such as legally defining the process for adjusting the work that overlaps between different ministries to clearly set strategic directions at the implementation state and ensure the accuracy of the plan as a scientific plan with indicator-oriented policies.

In addition, to secure the effectiveness of mid- to long-term plan meta-evaluation, this study suggests expanding qualitative evaluation criteria to various ones other than the checklist method, as well as establish reasonable criteria including the degree of concreteness, presentation of expected effects, step-by-step implementation plans, etc., in consideration of the temporal range of a plan, since there is a limitation in evaluating a 5-year plan and a 20-year plan with the same criteria.