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The National Assembly Futures Institute publishes reports that predict and analyze the changes in the future environment based on a comprehensive perspective, and derive mid- to long-term national development strategies in consideration of the preferences of the citizens
Feedback Loops and Scenarios Hidden in Korea's Low Birthrates and Jobs in the Future

Date : 2019-12-31 item : Research Report 19-22 P.I : Jeong Chang-gwon et al.

While the government's low birth rate response policy and job policy have different backgrounds and implementation strategies, as they share a common denominator in that they target people, the derivation of policies through the comparison and analysis of the two policies with a focus on policy consumers has great significance. To this end, future scenarios were created by analyzing the linkage between low birth rate and job policies, and policies were proposed based on this analysis.

Particularly, in a situation where no study has yet been conducted by analyzing the linkage between low birth rates and jobs, or low birth rate policy and job policy, this study has its significance in that it is the first research to analyze the linkage of the two policies in order to overcome the silo thinking that exists when they are separately implemented and to suggest policies from a new viewpoint. System dynamics, a methodology used in this study, analyzes the interaction of complex factors based on calculus-based engineering. It is useful to derive future scenarios through computer simulation, a quantitative research method, and the causal loop diagram, a qualitative research method.

The analysis results using this methodology confirm the ripple effect of low birth rates on decreasing job opportunities: when the employment rate is low due to lack of jobs, expected future revenues are also lowered, resulting in the phenomenon of avoiding having children regardless of marital status. Likewise, as jobs increase, the likelihood of having children increases as an important condition for having children is satisfied. On the other hand, regarding the impact of low birth rates on jobs, the analysis results establish the logic that high birth rates lead to population increase and higher job competition rates and that low birth rates lead to population decrease and lower job competition rates.

Compared to the impact of jobs on birth rates, that of birth rates on jobs had a delay effect. In conclusion, this study explored the linkage between low birth rate policy and job policy and examined the feedback between the two policies. Through this logical reasoning process, the following three policy implications were derived for each future scenario: a low birth rate policy that considers future jobs, a job policy that considers future population, and strategies aimed at co-evolution of jobs and population in the era of smart growth.

What is commonly suggested here is that organizations planning, coordinating, and implementing low birth rate policy and job policy should fully understand the feedback interaction of the two policies, and then establish a dedicated department that intensively examines the other policy and their linkage, or take on such a role.

This study was concluded by emphasizing the necessity of cooperative work based on comprehensive thinking when creating an integrated policy or organizing an integrated organization, calling attention not to take the approach of dividing the organization into birth rate experts and job experts and have them perform only the tasks in their fields.