□ Purpose and Distinction of the Study
The primary objective of this study is to explore normative futures for long-term peace on the Korean Peninsula. Multiple visions of normative futures are presented through causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to provide a mental model for understanding the Korean Peninsula's peace system, its sustainability, and potential transformations. Four scenarios of normative futures are developed to illustrate the multiplicity of possible peace pathways. These scenarios aim to stimulate productive debates and social dialogues among the public and the National Assembly on the drivers and feedback loops that define each future. As a preliminary effort, the results —derived from expert dialogues—will serve as foundational data for broader public discussions and bipartisan dialogues in subsequent research.
□ Methodology
The research adopts a backcasting approach, commonly used in transition studies such as climate change research, to strategically envision pathways to normative futures. Causal loop diagrams are utilized to visualize systemic interactions and to conceptualize peace as a dynamic equilibrium influenced by multiple feedback loops. The study emphasizes a bottom-up perspective, highlighting the roles of civil society and the National Assembly in envisioning and strategizing for these futures. Expert dialogues have been prioritized in this phase due to budget and time constraints, but future iterations will expand to include wider civic participation.
□ Definition of Peace
The study embraces a comprehensive view of peace that spans peace-keeping, peace-making, and peace-building, recognizing it as a multidimensional and multilevel concept. Rather than focusing solely on an ideal state of peace, it considers peace as the absence of full-scale war and situates it within a spectrum ranging from “negative peace”(security-centric approaches) to “positive peace” (institutional and social democratization). This broad definition serves as a foundational premise for fostering bipartisan and inclusive discussions about the Korean Peninsula's future.
□ Key Findings: Four Normative Futures for Korean Peninsula Peace
∙ Adversarial Peace: A status quo scenario marked by heightened tensions due to strategic competition among major powers, reinforced adversarial neglect between North and South Korea, and growing political polarization in South Korea.
∙ Balance of Terror: A state of extreme “negative peace” based on nuclear deterrence and arms control, underpinned by a societal consensus on deterrence as a rational choice.
∙ Functional Peace: A scenario of deepening functional integration through economic and cooperative exchanges between the Koreas, reducing tensions via mutual interdependence.
∙ Institutional Peace: A future characterized by institutionalized coexistence and integration, supported by a denuclearization-peace regime, cooperative political culture, and socio-economic democratization.
∙ Each scenario is visualized through CLDs, highlighting interactions among drivers, feedback loops, and systemic dynamics. Emerging issues identified in expert workshops are incorporated into the scenarios to provide foresight into potential disruptions and transformations.
□ Role of the National Assembly
The study outlines strategic and institutional roles for the National Assembly in each scenario:
∙ Adversarial Peace: Prevent full-scale conflict by maintaining minimal institutional channels for communication and managing risks of escalation.
∙ Balance of Terror: Pass legislation for arms control and deterrence stabilization.
∙ Functional Peace: Build societal consensus for functional integration and reform constitutional and legal frameworks to support long-term cooperation.
∙ Institutional Peace: Enact laws to institutionalize coexistence and explore governance models such as federation or confederation.
□ Short-Term Policy Recommendations
Given the current trajectory toward adversarial peace or balance of terror, the study recommends an immediate focus on preventing accidental conflicts and misjudgments. It proposes the Speaker of the National Assembly lead a multi-layered mediation initiative, leveraging the Assembly's bipartisan nature to promote peace diplomacy.
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