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Brief Reports

Report that suggests the national future strategies based on the analysis of major future issues by the research team
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47

[National Future Strategy Insight] A New Way to Derive National Strategies in Response to the Aging Society, No. 5

President Kim Hyeon-gon of the National Assembly Futures Institute has suggested six new ways to derive national strategies in response to the aging society in No. 5 of the “National Future Strategy Insight.” ▼ First, he suggested that rather than keeping with the elderly support policies, there should be a shift in paradigm to an independent aging society considering the fact that anyone can become an elderly person who lives a long life. ▼ Second, he stated that considering the fact that the public actively looks forward to the positive aspects of the future, while seeking to ignore negative possibilities, there should be a ‘Scrooge Strategy’ with regard to the aging society. ▼ Third, there should be a way for the elderly to come together for discussion and design national strategies in response to the aging society for themselves. ▼ Fourth, there should be a national health and physical activity program to which the elderly can actively contribute, leading to more possibilities for the elderly to contribute to society. ▼ Fifth, in order to make sure that the elderly can participate in valuable work and activities after retirement, there should be a national compulsory re-education system for the middle aged and the elderly. ▼ Lastly, there should be a data-based national strategy in response to the aging society by collecting all past data related to aging to analyze the fundamental issues and causes of the aging society in Korea, along with related trends and patterns, to solve the fundamental issues associated with the aging society. President Kim stated that “aging is not simply a change in the demographic structure or change in life expectancy, but more of a fundamental change of the life model,” and emphasized that “with a shift in paradigm in the 21st century, we must have new, different responses that are different from the ones that we have taken in the past.” ※ “National Future Strategy Insight” is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute.

P.I : Kim Hyeon-gon

Date : 2020-11-12

[International Strategy Foresight] The New Normal and Korea’s International Economic Strategies, No. 2

Dr. You Jae-Kwang, a former research fellow of the National Assembly Futures Institute, suggested some strategies that may be adopted by Korea to secure “sustainable economic growth,” a critical economic national interest, in such times where the power struggle between the United States and China is becoming more intense. Dr. You has presented the following international economic strategies in terms of trade, finance, currency, and ODA (Official Development Assistance) in his joint study with the Korean Association of International Studies in 2019. Some international trade strategies that may be adopted by Korea are: decreasing the trade dependence on particular countries; active participation in Mega FTA; linking bilateral trade and multilateral trade; and cooperation based on the universality of a liberal order. International finance strategies are: active cooperation with major global financial stability organizations; expanding the financial safety net; strengthening monetary agreements with other countries; expanding the financial market; and strengthening future-oriented digital financial diplomacy. Regarding international currency strategies, in order to secure an appropriately stable level of exchange rates, he suggested the following strategies: accumulation of foreign exchange reserves; ensure that all strategies match the international standards of Capital Control or Capital Management Measures; and strengthening international financial diplomacy. ODA strategies include: leading the increase in the scale of ODA; modify the paid/unpaid form of ODA in the mid- to long-term; choice and concentration in terms of ODA; and diversification of ODA portfolios. ※ “International Strategy Foresight” is a brief-type research report to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute. Inquiries: Former NAFI Research Fellow Dr. Yoo Jae-Kwang (you.36@buckeyemail.osu.edu)

P.I : You Chae-kwang

Date : 2020-11-05

[National Future Strategy Insight] Could More Legislative Activities be the Future of Our National Assembly, No. 4

Although the legislative activities of the National Assembly have been operative since democratization in 1987, the Head of NAFI Governance Group Park Sang-hoon diagnosed that a review of the following problems is required: excessive competition over the number of introduced bills, inadequate review of and deliberation on bills, and the hasty passing of bills. In fact, as of the 20th National Assembly (2016-2020), the Korean National Assembly proposed/introduced more legislations than major advanced countries including France (20 times more), Japan and Germany (60 times more), and the UK (80 times more). The number of the legislations corresponds to the amount that would take five years for a lawmaker to fully read and review, provided he can read and review bills initiated by fellow lawmakers for four hours a day over 300 days a year, with 15 minutes devoted to each bill. “'More important legislations' rather than 'more numerous legislations' is the future that the National Assembly needs to move forward to. If we select and propose valuable bills through a preliminary review, and enact them after extensive deliberation, discussion, and adjustment, this will lead to increased public trust in the National Assembly,” emphasized Dr. Park. ※ "National Future Strategy Insight" is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute. Inquiries: NAFI Governance Group Head Park Sang-hoon (parksh0305@nafi.re.kr)

P.I : Park Sang-hoon

Date : 2020-10-15

[International Strategy Foresight] Korea's Security Strategies in the Era of US-China Competition, No. 1

Former NAFI Associate Research Fellow You Chae-kwang presented mid- to long-term security strategies for South Korea to adopt amid intensifying competition over supremacy between the US and China. These customized strategies concerning each of the two target countries were derived based on the analysis of how the US-China competition changes the strategic interests of the US, China, North Korea, and Japan, which are Korea's principal counterparts. The following is a list of the mid- to long-term security strategies concerning each country proposed by Dr. You. The major strategies with respect to the US include: A subtle adjustment of the Korea-US alliance in consideration of relations with China; the creation of a space for diplomatic solutions through a forum for wide ranging talks with the United States; and the securing of independent military capabilities. Toward China, Dr. You presented the following as representative strategies: Allaying China's doubts related to the US deployment of strategic assets in Korea; institutionalizing high-level dialogue channels; and reducing economic dependence. Regarding North Korea, the following strategies were derived: Military deterrence strategy; continued dialogue in preparation for crises or changes in the security environment; and the strengthening of advanced surveillance capabilities. The strategies toward Japan are as follows: A quick solution to conflicts over the past; the restoration of a liberal rule-based order; and return to the Korea-US-Japan triangular alliance. ※ "International Strategy Foresight" is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute. Inquiries: Former NAFI Associate Research Fellow Ryu Jae-gwang (you.36@buckeyemail.osu.edu)

P.I : You Chae-kwang

Date : 2020-09-24

[National Future Strategy Insight] The Future and Policy Agendas of Korea in 2050, No. 3

Former NAFI Research Fellow Kim Hong-beom presented a scenario for the future of Korea in 2050 based on five scenarios covering the respective areas of governance; growth and development; individuals and community; food, clothing and shelter; and humans. Dr. Hong, in a comprehensive future forecasting research, revealed that related issues such as politics, society, culture, economy, and science and technology develop through mutual relations in various futures and derived comprehensive analysis results. Based on the results, he derived 50 desired, responsive and undesired policy agendas through a gap analysis of future scenarios of decline, sustainable growth, and transition. ※ "National Future Strategy Insight" is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute. Inquiries: Former NAFI Research Fellow Kim Hong-beom (kim.hongbum@gmail.com)

P.I : Kim Hong-bum

Date : 2020-09-17

[National Future Strategy Insight] The Future Minseo Dreams of: The Year 2050 When She Becomes Thirty, No. 2

NAFI (National Assembly Futures Institute) Research Fellow Park Seong-won announced that the public's most desired future was found to be "preservation distribution society." Preservation distribution society refers to a society where the justice of distribution for easing social polarization is pursued rather than economic growth while the environment and resources are preserved as much as possible for future generations. This society also contains the notion of a challenge distribution society that seeks to face challenges and changes while also pursuing distribution and cooperation. These results are based on NAFI's deliberate discussions with 502 citizens residing nationwide in November 2019 and an online survey for 65 experts in each field. ※ "National Future Strategy Insight" is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute. Inquiries: NAFI Research Fellow Park Seong-won (+82-2-2224-9805, spark@nafi.re.kr)

P.I : Park Seong-won

Date : 2020-09-03

[National Future Strategies Insight] Predicting Korea in 2050 and 11 Major National Reform Projects Pointed Out by the National Assembly, No. 1

Research Fellow Kim You-bean classified the possible future of Korea in 2050 into 13 areas, and suggested the 11 Major National Reforms based on the predictions made by 150 experts. The research team at the National Assembly Futures Institute identified 143 policy projects by analyzing future possible scenarios, out of which 11 major national reform projects were deduced by conducting a survey within the National Assembly. ※ "International Strategy Foresight" is a brief-type in-depth research report issued every other week to present national future strategies for Korea based on the analysis of major future issues by the research fellows of National Assembly Futures Institute. Inquiries: Research Fellow Kim Yu-bin (02-2224-9802, ybkim@nafi.re.kr)

P.I : Kim You-bean

Date : 2020-08-20