NAFI

October 1, Joint Research Project Forum of the National Assembly Research Coordination Council

The forum was held under the theme “Population Crisis and Responses to a Depopulating Society,” featuring a series of presentations and discussions.

In the first presentation, Min Bogyeong, Director of the Population Center at the National Assembly Futures Institute, noted that the proportion of single-person households has risen sharply from 27.2% in 2015 to 36.1% in 2024, forecasting that the aging of single-person households will accelerate rapidly in the coming decades (single-person households aged 50 and over: 51.5% in 2023 → 77.1% in 2052).

Next, Heo Gahyeong, Director of the Division of Population Strategy Analysis at the National Assembly Budget Office, presented on “Labor-Market Changes and Policy Responses to Demographic Change.” She explained that the labor market is undergoing structural changes such as population aging, increasing female participation, higher education levels, and a rise in foreign employment, and shared findings from a mid- to long-term sectoral labor demand forecast based on productivity trends and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.

In the third presentation, Ha Hyeyoung and Ryu Youngah, Legislative Researchers at the National Assembly Research Service, addressed “Reform Proposal for Local Administrative and Fiscal Systems in Areas of Population Decline.” They highlighted that localities facing population decline are struggling with weakened tax bases and rising administrative costs, stressing the need to restructure local administrative systems.

In the subsequent discussion, a senior researcher from Seoul National University emphasized that to design future population adaptation strategies, it is not enough to focus solely on macroeconomic aspects such as labor shortages, slower economic growth, and fiscal imbalances. Instead, Korea needs to strengthen its capacity to structurally analyze and forecast the socio-economic impacts of demographic changes.

A professor from Pusan National University argued that beyond simple lifelong learning, industry-specific training programs based on job transition pathways are needed. The professor proposed combining retirement age extension with flexible work arrangements, improving skill matching and social integration for foreign workers, and implementing middle-class protection and regionally tailored policies.

Choi Jimin from the Korea Research Institute for Local Administration stated that ongoing discussions on administrative integration in depopulated areas should be viewed not merely as efforts to improve efficiency but as a structural reform essential for survival. She suggested a multi-pronged approach that includes differentiated functional allocation for underpopulated regions, fiscal safety nets, mechanisms to preserve local identity, and decentralized regional development strategies.

Finally, Jung Hyeyoon, Associate Research Fellow at the National Assembly Futures Institute, remarked that the crisis in Korea’s labor market stems not only from aging but also from the combination of rapid generational turnover and the failure of policies to adapt. She emphasized that as generational replacement accelerates, discussions must focus on how to resolve the dual mismatch structure between labor supply and demand.