>   Future Research   >   Future Reports   >   Research Reports

Research Reports

The National Assembly Futures Institute publishes reports that predict and analyze the changes in the future environment based on a comprehensive perspective, and derive mid- to long-term national development strategies in consideration of the preferences of the citizens
[20-14] International disputes among South Korea, China, and Japan

Date : 2020-12-31 item : Research Report 20-14 P.I : Park, Sung Jun et al.

[20-14] International disputes among South Korea, China, and Japan

Recently, there have been growing tensions among South Korea, China, and Japan over many issues. In this study, we analyze various forms of disputes among these countries. In particular, we investigate political tensions, trade disputes, and environmental conflicts in this region, and try to figure out how they interact with one another to further destabilize the region.

Firstly, political tensions are analyzed mainly using "threat perception" theory. It is shown that factors such as the rise of China, conflict between the United States and China, and the past war crimes of Japan play important roles in escalating conflicts in the region. If US-China tension intensifies in the future, it can be expected to adversely affect relationship among these countries. Secondly, trade disputes are investigated using GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language and Tone) and Korean news articles. Two trade disputes are analyzed, including one that occurred between South Korea and China over the deployment of the THAAD system, and a dispute between South Korea and Japan in 2019. The level of political tension is quantified using GDELT, and shown to be consistent with recent development of trade disputes, which originate from political tensions between countries. Lastly, environmental conflicts are analyzed using news articles. Three specific issues related to fine dust, radioactive material, and viruses are investigated. Main events and related events are identified based on the number of articles, and then examined qualitatively. It is shown that the focus of the news articles on each issue changes over time, implying that environmental issues in the region can often evolve into international, domestic, or economic issues.