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The National Assembly Futures Institute publishes reports that predict and analyze the changes in the future environment based on a comprehensive perspective, and derive mid- to long-term national development strategies in consideration of the preferences of the citizens
Analysis Report on the Results of the National Survey on Preference for Policy Futures

Date : 2019-02-18 item : Research Materials P.I : Jung Younghoon

Analysis Report on the Results of the National Survey on Preference for Policy Futures

- NAFI Analyses the Results of the National Survey on Preference for Policy Futures

Sharply divided opinions on immigration policy, stark differences between generations with regard to how the family system is viewed, and grave concerns over the replacement of labor by AI

The National Assembly Futures Institute (President: Park Jin) conducted the "National Survey on Preference for Policy Futures" for an online panel of 3,000 men and women aged 15 to 65 years old from January 18 to January 22, 2019, with Embrain, a public opinion poll company.

This survey was conducted as part of NAFI's “Study for the Discovery of Future Scenarios and Policy Variables." According to the survey results, first, the respondents answered that a negative future is approaching regarding science and technology, North Korea, economy except residential environment, international politics, politics/administration, energy/resources, people, population/society, food/water resources, and climate/environment (see attachment). There was a difference in views regarding the future economy and international politics between generations, while regarding the future of climate change and the environment all generations expressed pessimism.

NAFI selected 17 future policies among those for averting undesired futures in the 13 above mentioned areas to examine the public's preference in relation to these policies. The questionnaire presented two opposite options regarding these policies along with their strengths and weaknesses, and side effects, and asked the respondents to select the one they prefer. Of these, the immigration policy to cope with labor shortages was the issue with the most sharply divided opinions (49% for immigration control and 51% for immigration expansion). Particularly, those in their twenties tended to prefer immigration control while those in their fifties preferred immigration expansion policies.

The area where disagreement was prominent among generations was the family system. Those in their teens and twenties thought communities living outside the bonds of marriage or blood relationships also need to be recognized as families while those in their sixties wanted the current family system to be maintained. This suggests that there will be many changes in the family system in the future. On the other hand, citizens were mostly optimistic about the future of science and technology, but they expressed concerns about the replacement of human labor by artificial intelligence (64%), and answered that strict regulation is necessary regarding developments in biotechnology such as gene selection and manipulation (67.9%).

Even though the respondents expressed the most pessimism regarding climate change and the environment, to the question of whether they are willing to bear a portion of energy conversion costs (development of new and renewable energy to replace fossil energy, etc.) by paying increased electricity prices, only 33.1% answered that they are. As the result shows the gap between perceptions about the future and a willingness to take action or make sacrifices, it is expected that civil society will not be able to actively respond to climate change in the future.

Regarding space development, food resources, euthanasia, biotechnology, climate and energy, artificial intelligence, and employment, more than 60% of the respondents chose either of the two given policy options, which clearly showed their preferences.

As for political conflict, use of big data, family system, and decentralization, there was a majority for one set of policy options but this majority did not exceed 60% of the respondents. On the other hand, regarding welfare, real estate, diplomatic security, environment, and immigration, both the policy options were preferred by similar high percentages of the respondents (40%-50%). Research Fellow Jung Younghoon of the National Assembly Futures Institute, who designed and conducted this survey, said, “It is important to gain national consensus when predicting and preparing for the mid- to long-term future. NAFI will continue to collect citizens' opinions for future policies that need to be examined based on the public's preferences and analyze their meanings.”

Inquiries: Jung Younghoon, NAFI Research Fellow (+82-2-2224-9810 or +82-10-9978-3722; jyh1974@nafi.re.kr)

[Press Release] NAFI Analyses the Results of the National Survey on Preference for Policy Futures