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The National Assembly Futures Institute publishes reports that predict and analyze the changes in the future environment based on a comprehensive perspective, and derive mid- to long-term national development strategies in consideration of the preferences of the citizens
Nation's Preferred Future Research Project

Date : 2018-12-31 item : Research Report 18-02 P.I : Park Seong-won

Nation's Preferred Future Research Project

■ Historically, socially, and culturally, the preferred future has been continuously discussed and pursued.

○ Rediscovery of past generations that struggled to realize a preferred future

· Even during the Joseon era alone, Silhak (realist school of Confucianism) scholars including Jeong Do-jeon and Jo Gwang-jo as well as King Sejong, King Yeongjo, and King Jeongjo, envisioned a people-oriented future and strived to realize a preferred future in their given circumstances.

· The major tasks pushed forward by those who led the realization of a preferred future during the Joseon era included: putting social justice into action, fostering the middle class, guaranteeing equal opportunities for education, providing ethics and moral education, and promoting ecological values.

· Efforts to realize a Daedong (Great Unity) society and a utopian world were extended to the private sector, beyond the political sector.

○ Re-examination of preferred futures in terms of space, social norms, and cognitive perspectives

·Concentration and dispersion are important criteria for realizing a preferred future in all ages, and efforts by Korea to establish ecological cities can gain consensus from a global perspective.

· The revision of the constitution is a task involving changing social norms and power systems to make multiple preferred futures accommodate and coexist with each other, so this should be continued in the future.

· From a cognitive perspective, a preferred future can be seen as efforts to transcend the dominant paradigm of a society, and from a scientific and technological perspective, a preferred future should be understood as the basis of democracy that serves to expand rational thinking.

■ Research on the nation's future preferred values

○ Future preferred values reflect the preferences of future generations from a long-term perspective

· A future preferred value survey plays the role of a compass, giving directions to the present generation so that they can realize a desirable society in the future.

○ A value survey reflecting the predictions and policy tasks in 13 fields derived by the National Assembly Futures Institute

· The value survey designed based on future drivers and policy tasks in 13 fields enables the meanings of the reflected future predictions and prospects to be identified and understood.

○ Plans for a future preferred value survey for youth

· It is necessary to encourage future generations to actively contribute to and participate in building the future by planning a future preferred value survey for teenagers, which has never been conducted in Korea before.

■ Preferred futures from the perspectives of experts in 13 fields

○ Enhance imagination on preferred futures based on scenario method

· Experts in 13 fields conducted a multifaceted search for preferred futures using the scenario methodology that expands the mental model.

· Its primary significance lies in that it derived preferred futures that had not yet been found or imagined from the existing perspective and discussed measures for the realization of these futures.

· It is also meaningful that it increased the possibility of realizing these preferred futures by studying the conditions and environment in which the futures would be built rather than discussing preferred futures in a vague way.

○ Common values of preferred futures by field

· Values such as inclusion, circulation, recovery, eco-friendliness, high efficiency, balance, cooperation, safety, interdependence, reform and openness, social safety net, technological innovation, solidarity, and integration appear to be commonly pursued in different fields.

· It appears that preferred futures in each field are not formed by the drivers of the field, but can be formed as they are combined with the drivers of various fields.

■ Policy Futures and Citizens' Choice

○ Korea's first study to derive policy futures in 13 fields

· Reinterpretation of policy tasks derived from 13 fields that will have a great influence on the future of Korean society from the perspective of the people's choice.

· Particularly, this study, with a focus on policy tasks to prepare against negative futures and went further to derive alternative policy tasks by taking into account the adverse effects that these policy tasks may cause.

· Both the policy tasks and alternative policy tasks are future policies that have not yet been implemented, and as they have conflicting values and objectives, it is considered that citizens' choice is required.

· It is necessary to determine which policies should be implemented first from the perspective of the people by assessing these future policies in terms of social ripple effects and urgency.

○ Citizens' participation in the policy process and expression of their opinions

· Generally, the process of collecting public opinions takes place at the stage where a policy is almost completed, but in this study, the opinions of the people were collected from the stage of policy planning.

· Citizens' participation in reviewing future policies allow them to imagine and prepare for future opportunities or threats and the government can develop and implement better policies by listening to public opinions from time to time.

· The future forecasts in 13 fields suggest that most of the people have negative conceptions about the future, so a comprehensive response for the future of Korean society is needed.

· The future policy survey found that the people want a future where the values of inclusiveness and equity are fully put into action, and that they believe social and ethical threats should be taken into account with regard to the development of science and technology.