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Brief Reports

Report that suggests the national future strategies based on the analysis of major future issues by the research team
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82

[National Future Strategic Insight] Analysis of Social Risks by Life Cycle: Focusing on the Difference Based on Income Level and Poverty (No. 47)

This report categorizes the social risks (mental health, physical health, and unemployment) experienced by individuals across the life cycle and analyzed how the impact of these risks varies according to existing inequality factors (monetary poverty and material deprivation). The report has empirically analyzed that poverty is associated with a range of life cycle risks, and that material deprivation, which implies direct experiences of poverty, is linked to a wide range of areas, from physical and mental health to unemployment. Based on this, the report emphasized that the various life cycle crises triggered by experiences of poverty are sequential and overlapping, and therefore, there is a need for a systematic view of the patterns of risks according to the life cycle and to develop a detailed policy design that takes into account the relationship with experiences of poverty.

P.I : Lee Chae-jeong

Date : 2022-06-13

[National Future Strategic Insight] Lifelong Learning Policy Recommendations to Improve Social Mobility of Vulnerable Groups in the Labor Market (No. 46)

This study analyzed the experiences of lifelong learning participation among vulnerable groups in the labor market, who are greatly influenced by economic and industrial structural changes and labor market volatility, and their perceptions of social mobility. The analysis revealed that the common motivation for engaging in lifelong learning among vulnerable workers was to improve their income levels through employment, reemployment, and skill enhancement. The study also revealed that the types of lifelong learning that are most effective for vulnerable workers varied depending on their occupations, and it was found that sustained participation in lifelong learning, accumulation of learning outcomes, and acquisition of learning outcomes recognized by the labor market could be linked to increased social mobility. Based on these findings, the study highlighted that in order for lifelong learning to contribute to enhancing social mobility, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive learning counseling service system to promote participation in lifelong learning among vulnerable groups in the labor market, improve the systematic nature of lifelong learning to facilitate skill improvement in substance, and establish a social recognition system for lifelong learning outcomes.

P.I : Sung Moon-ju

Date : 2022-05-30

[National Future Strategic Insight] Future Outlook Framework and Improvement Agenda (No. 45)

This report presents a new framework and process for future outlook by addressing the questions of “what should be the goal of future outlook, what process should it take, and ultimately, what should it propose?” The key points include the need to specify the value-oriented goals of future outlook, verify the rigor and validity of forecasting methodology, provide various content of future outlook, and propose strategies and action plans for future outlook. Based on a new approach to future outlook, the National Assembly Futures Institute aims to forecast the future of diverse citizens and individuals and project future society from an integrated perspective rather than sector-specific perspective. The institute is seeking to discover emerging citizens, who are currently a minority but may become the majority in the future, and project their lives in light of the changing future environment.

P.I : Park Seong-won

Date : 2022-05-16

[National Future Strategic Insight] The National Assembly Should Reduce the Frequency of Using the Words “Nation” and “People” (No. 44)

If there are terms or concepts that are frequently used in the National Assembly that have been overused in a way that do not correspond to the values of democracy, they are “nation” and “the people.” This report critically analyzes this practice of using political language in the National Assembly and highlights the importance of a language environment in which political language containing pluralistic values such as government, society, community, civil society, members of society, and citizens naturally coexist with each other and diverse voices of our society can be expressed through parliamentary politics.

P.I : Park Sang-hoon

Date : 2022-05-02

[International Strategic Foresight] The Change in the International Order and the Geopolitical Implications of the Ukraine crisis (No. 8)

As the U.S.-China competition for technological hegemony intensifies, there is a growing trend of the reshuffling (decoupling) of the supply chain between the U.S. and China, especially in high-tech industries. Additionally, the diplomatic strategies of the U.S. and China are leading to the consolidation and confrontation of democratic and authoritarian camps. The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent economic sanctions against Russia further highlights such dynamics. This report analyzes such trend in the international order and examines the geopolitical implications of the Ukraine crisis as an extension of the U.S.-China rivalry. The possibility of bloc formation in the global economy, an alternative global financial system centered around the authoritarian camp, the potential conflicts between energy transitions and energy security, and the intensification of confrontation between the democratic and authoritarian camps are examined. Based on these discussions, the report derives implications for economic security and the international strategic landscape.

P.I : Park Sung-jun

Date : 2022-04-25

[National Future Strategic Insight] Five major impact areas of climate change and legislative agenda for adaptation (No. 43)

This study examines the impacts of climate change that are likely to have large social impacts through network and topic analysis of climate change impacts covered in the IPCC Assessment Reports 1-6, which are considered the most authoritative literature for predicting the impacts of climate change. The analysis identified five major impact areas with great ripple effects: water resources management, conservation of marine environment, climate and health, natural disaster response, and food supply. The report assessed the legislative activities focused on the five major impact areas of climate change, and analyzed the status of bill proposals. Additionally, to supplement the analysis of the rationale and key contents of the proposed bills, the existing major laws related to areas where significant impacts are expected but have limited or no bill proposals (climate and health, food supply, and natural disaster response) were examined. Considering the reality that climate change is difficult to become a major agenda in all policy areas, the report suggested it may be worth considering the enactment of climate change adaptation laws to ensure stable implementation of key policies to enhance climate change resilience, and proposed a legislative agenda for the high-impact areas of climate change.

P.I : Kim Eun-ah

Date : 2022-04-18

[National Future Strategic Insight] Mid- to Long-term Prospects and Implications for Changes in the Korean Economic Society by Digital Transformation Scenario (No. 42)

This report focuses on the potential opportunities and risks underlying rapid digital transformation and technological changes and potential issues that may arise from the gap between technological changes and the socio-economic system. As a strategic future forecast study, the report identified the mid- to long-term socio-economic impacts of environmental changes in the future digital transformation era and provided policy implications for responding to the digital transformation era. The analysis has revealed that if the institutional and political environments do not evolve in line with the pace of technological change, potential side effects resulting from the bias of technological change in the era of digital transformation can be amplified, leading to polarization in the labor market and worsening income inequality. As a future vision for the digital transformation era, it proposes a “creative learning” innovative system that promotes interaction between the supply and demand of jobs (skills) in the race between digital transformation technology and learning.

P.I : Yeo Yeong-jun

Date : 2022-04-04

[National Future Strategic Insight] Post-COVID-19 Paradigm Shift in the U.S. Economic Policy and Implications (No. 41)

This report introduces key discussions behind the recent shift in the United States’ economic policy direction and identifies implications for Korea’s economic management. The supply-side theory, which explains the long-term growth stagnation in the U.S., assumes that potential output is determined solely by technological and demographic factors, focusing on the decline in the growth of potential output. On the other hand, Lawrence Summers proposed the secular stagnation theory, suggesting that the stagnation in the U.S. economy since the 2000s is rooted in structural deficiencies in aggregate demand. Based on a new discussion on economic growth, there is an ongoing shift in policy consensus towards supporting the government’s aggressive fiscal policy and the business adjustment function of fiscal policy from a focus on monetary policy. While it remains uncertain whether this new policy paradigm will be successful, the shift in the U.S. economic paradigm carries significant implications as a key signal for policy transitions in advanced capitalist countries, including the Republic of Korea.

P.I : Lee Sun-hwa

Date : 2022-03-21

[National Future Strategic Insight] Politics of Compromise and Conflict Management: Analysis of the Decision Process of Corporate Tax Rate in Korea (No. 40)

This report traces the political conflicts and aspects of compromise surrounding the determination of the highest corporate tax rate in Korea since democratization. It discovered that in the domain of policy decision-making through legislation, decision-making has been achieved through compromise between the president and the assembly, as well as between the ruling party and the opposition party rather than through unilateral politics by an authoritarian president. There is widespread concern that under a presidential system, if a multiparty system is established through a mixed proportional representation system, the ruling party may not be able to secure a majority of seats. As a result, the National Assembly will be brought to a stalemate, leading to continued political turmoil. However, examining the case of the determination process of corporate tax rates reveals that despite the structural constrains of Korean politics that make inter-party cooperation difficult, political parties have been mutually cooperative. It is anticipated that if institutional conditions mature through constitutional amendments and reforms in the electoral system, the future planning function of politics, where multiple parties can engage in discussions, cooperation, and conflict management, and propose mid- and long-term policies, will be strengthened.

P.I : Park Hyeon-seok

Date : 2022-03-07

[Futures Brief] Environmental conflict trends in Northeast Asia and sustainable conflict resolution strategies(no.6)

The report suggested response strategies for environmental conflicts in Northeast Asia by analyzing the trends of international environmental conflict issues already existing in Northeast Asia and comparing the conditions for resolving the pollutant transfer issue between countries in the past and the conditions for environmental conflicts in Northeast Asia existing today. Exposure to hazardous substances is a significant threat to human health, and the risk of pollutants flowing from Northeast Asian countries and into Korea is expected to continue or even increase. Therefore, there is a need to draw up a joint response strategy among Northeast Asian countries to reduce pollutant emissions and strengthen safety management standards to protect public health. When deriving a joint response strategy for Northeast Asian countries, It is necessary to shift the perspective towards promising collecting efforts to reduce risks in the future beyond simply addressing ongoing issues. The report proposed strengthening transparent information exchange and expanding the scope of cooperation comprehensively, encompassing cooperation content and regions.

P.I : Kim Eun-ah

Date : 2022-02-28